8 | New Scientist | 9 April 2022News
THE message is very clear.
In three instalments, the
Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) has told us
that humans are “unequivocally”
to blame for rising temperatures,
we are outstripping our ability to
adapt and, on 4 April, that we can
fix this crisis. The fix requires us
to ensure that global greenhouse
gas emissions peak in three
years and are cut by 43 per cent
by 2030. Achieve that, and we
have a 50 per cent chance of
staying under 1.5°C of global
warming, the threshold for
when climate impacts become
far more damaging.
Yet, as the IPCC itself points
out, without stronger policies
from governments, global
emissions are projected to keep
rising beyond 2025. The current
trajectory is for a planet that has
warmed by a hellish 3.2°C. So
what reasons are there to think
the world can land at 1.5°C instead?
There is no good historical
precedent for such rapid and
deep emissions reductions.
Global emissions were just
under 60 gigatonnes of carbon
dioxide equivalents in 2019, afterfactoring in everything from fossil
fuel burning to land use changes
such as forests cleared for farms.
Emissions have grown despite
years of UN climate talks and swift
deployment of renewable energy
projects. The rate has slowed,
though: average annual growth
was 1.3 per cent between 2010
and 2019; it was 2.1 per cent in
the decade before. Yet reaching a
plateau remains elusive. Covid-
restrictions delivered a record fall
in fossil fuel emissions in 2020,but a coal-fuelled rebound in
2021 wiped out those savings.
Emissions are expected to
rise this year too.
The world missed a chance
to restructure its energy and
transport systems with pandemic
stimulus packages. The current
energy crisis, exacerbated by
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,
presents another possible
inflection point.
Jim Skea, co-chair of the
IPCC’s working group III, which
produced this week’s report, says
scientists are conscious that
getting emissions to peak by
2025 and almost halve by 2030
represents a “big change of
direction”. However, he adds:
“What the report absolutely makes
clear is that we’re not talking
about business as usual if we are
going to address the challenge of
climate change. So we don’t look
at the immediate past and say we
expect that pattern to continue.”
The report offers a bounty of
ways to avoid business continuingas usual for emissions.
Wind and solar power have
the greatest potential when
it comes to making cuts, with
nuclear offering a much smaller
supporting role. Meanwhile,
we must switch from fossil
fuels to electrification to heat
buildings and power cars, scale
up alternative fuels including
hydrogen, improve energy
efficiency and implement carbon
capture and storage in sectors
such as heavy industry.
Reducing emissions isn’t
just about technological fixes.
“Demand-side strategies” –
behaviour changes such as
switching to more plant-based
diets and flying less – could cut
emissions by between 40 and
70 per cent in all sectors by 2050.
Among the 60 actions that
individuals could take to curb
consumption, walking andcycling are identified as offering
the biggest potential emissions
reduction.
The IPCC also hints that the
richest in society could deliver
the biggest emissions cuts, if
people curbed their consumption
of goods and services. The 10 per
cent of^ households worldwide
with the highest per capita
emissions are responsible for
45 per cent of all consumption-
based household emissions.No time to lose
The good news is that in a world
where money talks, many of the
measures needed are cheaper than
the cost of not acting. Both the
main types of solar power, plus
onshore and offshore wind power,
are already at costs that compete
with fossil fuels in many places,
says the report. The prices of key
technologies have plummeted,
such as the cost per kilowatt-hour
for lithium-ion batteries falling by
85 per cent between 2010 and 2019.
The IPCC makes clear that there
is still technically a path to the
safer haven of a 1.5°C world. But
there is little sign of the political
will to embark on that trail. Last
year, 196 countries promised to
“revisit and strengthen” their
national climate plans in 2022.
To date, none has. Scientists are
usually reluctant to say when
the totemic 1.5°C target will be
out of reach. But Skea admits
that it will be “gone” if more
ambitious plans don’t arrive
before the next UN climate
summit, in Egypt this November.
Time is almost up. Skea insists
that making sure emissions peak
within three years is still feasible,
but as he tells New Scientist:
“The longer we put off action,
in terms of addressing climate
change, the bigger the feasibility
challenges will be.” ❚“ We’re not talking about
business as usual if we are
to address the challenge
of climate change”
Analysis Climate changeIANHI
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ES1.5°C goal is barely still in reach
The IPCC’s report shows we have the tools to make fast cuts in emissions.
But there is little sign of the political will to act now, says Adam VaughanSevere flooding in
Townsville, Australia,
in February 2019