A24 EZ RE THEWASHINGTONPOST.SUNDAY,APRIL 10 , 2022
warin ukraine
BYMAXBEARAKpervomaisk,ukraine—The
grain Ukraineproducesis found
everywhere.Much of the breadin
the MiddleEastismade fromit.
Much of whataid organizations
distributeto staveoff faminein
Yemenis madefromit. Much of
whatfeedsChineselivestockthat
in turnfeedspeopleworldwideis
madefromit.
Even withacalamitouswar
aboutto enterits seventhweek,
Ukraineis on track to harvest
mostofits vast grain fieldsthis
summer —thoughthere are
mountingconcernsthatwar-re-
lated supplyshortages mayre-
duceoutputby as muchas athird.
Thecountryhas30milliontonsof
wheatinstorage, too.
“Lastyear was arecordwheat-
producing year for the whole
country,”said DmytroGrushet-
skyi, an industrialfarmerwith
nearly30,000acresof cropland
nearthe central cityofUmanwho
also runs an agricultural data
companythatmonitorsharvests
in Ukraine,Russia and neighbor-
ing countries.“Ukraineis actually
full of grain. Our stocksare full.”
“Butnowwe can’t getthe grain
out,”hesaid, putting his finger on
the problemthatmay leadto an
enormousspikeingrain prices
and exacerbate hunger around
the world,“whichmeansUkraini-
an farmers,andthe restofthe
world,are screwed.”
All of Ukraine’s BlackSea ports
are closedofftothe worldbya
Russianblockadethatincludes
floating mines.Abattleshipthe
Ukrainiannavy scuttled to avoid
captureisblockingaccesstograin
stores at the country’sbiggest
portinOdessa.And after 20 years
of investmentin farm-to-portin-
frastructure,wheatexported by
train is justatinyfraction of what
is exported by sea.
Without export income,
Ukraine’s giantindustrialagricul-
tureeconomyisgrindingtoahalt,
threateningbankruptcyfor farm-
ers and increasingthe likelihood
thatthe globalgrain market —
and otherfoodsuppliesthatde-
pendon it —willsee increasingly
worsescarcityeveninthe unlike-
ly event thatthe conflictends
soon.
David Beasley, executivedirec-
tor of the U.N. World Food Pro-
gram (WFP),toldthe U.N. Secu-
rityCouncilthatfood pricesare
alreadyskyrocketing.Athird of
the worldpopulation relieson
wheatasadietarystaple.Anger
overrisingfoodpriceshas always
beenamajor underlyingcauseof
civil unrestthe worldover.
Thewar’s knock-oneffects on
energyand fertilizersuppliesare
alreadyripplingthroughagricul-
tural supplychains,raisingprices
of basicgoods for nearlyeveryone
on the planet.
Countriessuchas Egypt —the
biggestimporter of Ukrainian
wheatlastyear —aswell as Leba-
non, Pakistan and others,get
mostoftheirwheatfromUkraine.
Thecountryproduces abouta
fifthofthe world’shigh-grade
wheatand 7percentof all wheat.
TheWFP buyshalfof its grain
fromUkraine.
Grushetskyi has more than
$2 million worth of wheat
trappedin storage, and likeother
farmers acrossthe country, he
worriedthatwithout beingable
to sell anyofit, he won’tbe able to
payworkers, buy seed,fueland
fertilizer,maintainequipmentor
payoutstandingbills,putting the
futureof his companyinperil.
Atrader he workswithat the
Odessaport, OleksandrChumak,
laidout the industry’sdespon-
dencyinplain terms.
“Thereis nothingelse to do but
give the grain away to the armyor
as humanitarian aid. Ukraine,
thankfully,willnot starve,”he
said.“Butif we are talkingabout
globalfoodsecurity, well,thatis
alreadyafragile system.Climate
change, supplychainchaos,and
nowthiswar—insix months’
time,poorpeoplewill starve to
death. Idon’t thinkthe world
understandsthatyet.For their
own sakes, movement of food
throughthe BlackSea mustbe
negotiated.”
ForUkrainian farmers,howev-
er,there aremore-immediate
problems.
It tookjusttwo hourson the
firstmorningof Russia’sinvasion
of Ukrainefor its forcesto occupy
the 55 squaremilesof Volodymyr
Khvostov’s industrial-scalefarms,
whichraise wheat, rapeseed,sun-
flowersand dairyanimalsin the
country’shighest-yieldingregion,
between the Crimeanpeninsula
and the southerncityofKherson.
Sincethe war began,Ukraine’s
mostproductive agricultural re-
gionshave comeunderRussian
control.
Keycanalsthatirrigate mil-
lionsof acreshave beendamaged
in fighting.
Thedieselthatfuelstractors
and otherequipmentis increas-
inglyunavailableacrossthe coun-
try, either becauseit wasonce
obtainedfromRussia or because
Russia has bombedlocalfuel stor-
agesites.
Keymomentsin the agricultur-
al calendar—fertilizing,tilling
and,soon,planting—are passing
whilefarmersstruggle to source
essentialsupplies,and whileoth-
ers have left to go fight.Farmemployeesare exemptfromcon-
scription,but manyhavejoined
out of asenseof duty.
“Weare still planningto har-
vest, even if it will be difficult,”
Khvostov said.“Butif we don’t
defeatthe Russiansby then,it
won’t matter to the restofthe
world.”
Agriculturalofficials in
Ukraine expressed worrythat
whiletheir country’sarmyseems
to be holdingRussia’sarmyback
fromachieving its mostambi-
tiousgoals, Russia mightwin in a
longwar againstUkraine by crip-
plingits agricultural economy.Acollapseof industrialfarm-
ing would be disastrous for
Ukrainein justabouteveryway
imaginable.AndbecauseRussia
is alsoone of the world’s biggest
grain producers,it standsto gain
exactly whereUkraineloses.
“It’sasecretweaponin the
war,” said AndriiDykun, chair-
manof the UkrainianAgriCoun-
cil. “MakeUkraine go bankrupt.
Make the worldbuy fromRussia.
Of coursethe worldwill buy from
themrather thanstarve.”
Russia has alreadyslashedits
wheatpricesto makeits product
moreattractiveontheglobalmar-ket, thoughit has also threatened
to limit agricultural exports to
countriesit considershostile to
its invasionof Ukraine.Russian
foodexports have not yetcome
under Western sanctions, and
some of theUnitedStates’ largest
agribusinesses,includingCargill,
continueto operateinRussia.
“AmericanandGermancom-
paniesare still operating in Rus-
sia, so whilethe U.S. sanctions
Russia, theyare financingthemat
the sametime,”Dykunsaid. “The
West will makeusdie slowlythis
way.”
Becauseagricultureis so inte-
gral to Ukraine’s economy, farm-
ers have beenlionizedby their
fellow citizens,their roleseen
almostasessentialassoldiers’.
And manyfarmershave seenit as
their dutytoharvestasmuch
grain as possible,not justfor their
country’ssakebut for the world’s.
“It’sahalf joke, but maybe the
West shouldgive us armoredtrac-
tors,”said Bogdan Lukiyanchuk,a
farmer,agronomistand hostof
Growex, aYouTubechannelfor
Ukrainianfarmers.
At agathering at his homeon
the outskirts of Pervomaisk —
north of the cityofMykolaiv,
which has comeunderintense
Russianshellingin recentweeks
—Lukiyanchukposedfor aphoto
withan automatic rifle.
“Isleepwithone.Itakeanother
out into the fields withme justin
case,”hesaid.“Wehavetokeep as
muchof our landunderour con-
trol as possible.This fight is not
justfor Ukraine but for everyone.”SerhiyMorgunovcontributedto this
report.100 MILESRUSSIABELARUSM
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in 2014UKRAINEKKHERHERSSONONZZAPORIZAPORIZHZHIAHZHIAKKHARHARKKIVIVSources:InstitutefortheStudyof War, U.S. Departmentof Agriculture JÚLIALEDUR/THEWASHINGTONPOSTControlareasasof April 6BELARUSRussian-heldareas PortsWheatproductionaverage
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PHOTOSBYMICHAELROBINSONCHAVEZ/THEWASHINGTONPOSTLEFT:DmytroGrushetskyi,
an industrialfarmerwith
nearly30,000 acresof
cropland nearthe central
cityofUma,has morethan
$2 million worth of wheat
trapped in storage.FROM TOP:ASoviet-era
grainstorage warehouse
outside Uman. Alackof
storagespacehas farmers
usingold, dilapidated
storehouses. Afieldofyoung
wheat in Uman, Ukraine, on
March27. Aman carries
firewoodtoahut outside
Uman thatservesasa
seasonalbunkhouse for
farmworkers.