The Economist - UK (2022-04-09)

16 Briefing The French presidential election TheEconomistApril9th 2022

seen  as  something  of  a  success  (see  chart

2).  A  form  of  pragmatic,  post­partisan

policymaking has pushed through a range

of reforms—lower taxes, a more flexible la­

bour market, better training and early edu­

cation, ivffor gay women, and more. Par­

liamentary politics has become more con­

sensual. There has been scarcely a whiff of

rebellion in parliament. It feels quite nor­

mal  to  see  Bruno  Le  Maire,  France’s  long­

serving finance minister and once a presi­

dential primary candidate for the Republi­

cans,  working  closely  alongside  Olivier

Dussopt, the budget minister, previously a

Socialist  deputy.  Such  harmony  has  made

possible, among other things, a post­covid

recovery  plan  that  saw  France’s  economy

recover to pre­pandemic levels faster than

any other g7country apart from America. 

Some of the fruits of his tenure are easi­

ly  seen  in  Mr  Macron’s  native  Amiens,  a

modest  northern  city  of  red­brick  houses

nestled in what were once the battlefields

of the Somme, their soil and memories the

strongest  of  all  cases  for  European  unity.

Unemployment has fallen. Nursery educa­

tion  is  now  compulsory  (and  free)  for  all

from  the  age  of  three,  as  it  is  across  the

country. In poorer neighbourhoods, early­

primary  class  sizes  have  been  halved  and

free  breakfasts  brought  in  as  part  of  Mr

Macron’s promise to tackle inequality with

better education. 

New  businesses  have  opened  their

doors,  and  some  existing  ones  have  ex­

panded.  Amazon  has  built  a  distribution

centre  on  the  city’s  outskirts,  employing

over 1,000 people. A tyre plant has expand­

ed;  so  has  one  making  laundry  products.

“Over the past five years, economic activity

has really developed in Amiens,” enthuses

Ms Fouré, the mayor, despite being a sup­

porter  of  Mr  Macron’s  presidential  rival,

Mrs  Pécresse.  A  startup  called  Ynsect,

which breeds and processes insects for an­

imal  feed  and  fertiliser,  is  building  the

world’s  biggest  vertical  mealworm  farm.

“This  government  has  been  particularly

pro­business,”  says  Antoine  Hubert,  Yn­

sect’s boss. “The number and size of start­

ups in recent years has exploded.”

But  there  have  been  close­downs,  too.

One  of  the  iconic  moments  of  the  

campaign was when Mr Macron faced en­

raged  trade  unionists  burning  tyres  out­

side  a  Whirlpool  factory  in  Amiens;  the

firm  was  shipping  work  out  to  lower­cost

economies  elsewhere  in  the  euand  the

factory  faced  closure.  The  presidential

hopeful spent nearly an hour urging them

not  to  believe  the  “empty  promises”  of­

fered by the likes of Ms Le Pen, who vowed

to stop the factory from closing. “I can’t tell

you  I’m  going  to  save  your  jobs,”  Mr  Mac­

ron declared candidly. But he would try. 

Today weeds are growing in the car park

of the Whirlpool factory; a sculpture made

from  18  steel  tumble­dryer  drums  domi­

natesitsdesertedentrancehall.Twicenew

ownerspromisedtokeeptheplantgoing.

Twicetheyfailed.“It’sa disgrace,”saysFré­

déricChantrelle,a formerunionrepresen­

tative.Lessthanhalfofthe 280 formerem­

ployees have found another permanent

job.Otherindustrialworkplaceshavesuf­

feredsimilarfates.Workindistribution

warehouseshasnotreplacedthemuscular

camaraderieofthefactoryfloor.“Socially,

theclosurehasdestroyeda lotofpeople,”

saysMrChantrelleangrily:“Wecan’tsay

thatMacronasa guyfromAmienshasex­

actlybeena luckycharm.”

Disillusionamongblue­collarandlow­

paidworkersisoneofthereasonsthepop­

ulistvotehasnotgoneaway.Thesingle

mostpopularchoiceforblue­collarvoters

isMsLePen:36%saytheywillbackherin

thefirstround,nextto20%forMrMacron

and19%forMrMélenchon,accordingto

Ifop,a pollinggroup.Sheattracts28%of

thevoteofthosewithincomesbelow€

($1,055)a month,nextto25%forMrMac­

ronand21%forMrMélenchon.

Letthemeatcrickets

Discontented working­class voters are

hardlya novelty;forthefirstelevenyears

ofMrMacron’slifetheCommunistParty

ranAmienstownhall.PartofMsLePen’s

successhasbeenattractingmoreofthem

toa partywhich,whenherfatherfounded

itinthe1970s,wasbasedonxenophobia,

anti­Semitism and nationalist nostalgia

linkedtothelossofFrenchAlgeria.

MsLePenhasdistancedherselffrom

someofthatheritage,notleastwhenshe

changedtheparty’snamefromtheNation­

alFronttotheNationalRallyin2018.Mr

Zemmour,a formertv pundit, has em­

braceditsmostreactionaryandxenopho­

bicelements.Hepromisesto“saveFrance”

fromthe“greatreplacement”ofitspopula­

tionbyforeignersandIslam;hehasbeen

convictedofincitementtoracialhatred.At

onepointheedgedaheadofMsLePenin

thepolls,butasa devoteeofVladimirPu­

tinhewasknockedbackbadlybytheinva­

sionofUkraine.(MsLePenandMrMélen­

chonhavealsohadnicethingstosayabout

MrPutin,butvotershavesofarminded

less,ifatall).Alargemajorityofhissup­

porterswill probablytransfertheiralle­

giancetoMsLePeninthesecondround.

Thatishardlysurprising.Moreunto­

wardistheevidencethatshewillpickup

votesfromtheleftandthecentreinun­

precedentednumbers.AccordingtoIpsos,

in2017,7%ofthosewhohadsupportedMr

Mélenchonand20%ofthosewhosupport­

edthecentre­rightcandidateinthefirst

roundtransferredtheirallegiancetoMsLe

Peninthesecond.Thistimepollsputthe

numberssayingtheywilldosoat17%and

34%respectively.Many left­wingers,in­

Don’t panic?

Source:TheEconomist’sforecastmodel *AtApril6th

1

Chanceofwinning*,%

French presidential election 2022

Round-two polling* and predicted vote share, %

Jan Feb Mar Apr

Macron

Macron

Pécresse LePen LePen

0

20

40

60

80

100

30

40

50

60

Round two 70

80% confidence interval

Round two

53

47

Others

Jan Feb Mar Apr

Not a bad record

*Alternativequestion:“DoyouhaveconfidencethatMacron

canmanagethecoronavirusepidemicinFrance?”

†15-to64-year-olds Sources:Kantar;Insee

2

60

40

20

0

Yearsinoffice

Confidence in the French president, % polled

Macron

(201-22)

Macron

Hollande

(2012-1)

Hollande

Sarkozy

(200-12)

Sarkozy

68

67

66

65

64

Quartersinoffice

201612841

Employment rate† under French presidents, %

012345

*