The Economist - UK (2022-04-09)

28 Europe TheEconomistApril9th 2022

Thebattlefield

Theturningtide

O

nmarch 28 thUkraine’sgeneralstaff

warnedthattheRussianarmy,within

strikingdistanceofKyiv,still wantedto

takethecapital.A weeklaterthatarmyhad

largelyevaporatedfrombothsidesofthe

Dnieperrivernorthofthecity.AsRussian

troops retreated to Belarus and Russia,

pursuedbyUkrainians,Kyivbeganreturn­

ingtonormal.Noshots,shellsormis

havebeenheardsinceMarch30th.No

sential shops are re­opening. V

Klitschko,themayor,hasurgedcivilia

waituntiltheendoftheweektoreturn

allareheedinghisadvice.Butalthoug

battleiswon,thewarisnot.

Russiasaysitswaraimisnowto“liber­

ate” Donbas in eastern Ukraine; some

thinkthatVladimirPutin,Russia’spresi­

dent,wantsto byVictoryDayonMay

9th,thedatet mmemoratesNaziGer­

many’ssurren n1945.Beforethewar

beganinFebr ussiacontrolleda third

oftheterritor ceFebruary24thithas

takena lotmo ludingsomeofMariu­

pol,a portcity.

Whether ithasenough manpowerto

takeitallremainsopentoquestion.Byfo­

Ukraineseesa windowofopportunity

topushRussiaback

Terror,tortureandmurderhavebeenRus­

sianmilitarytacticsforaslongasVladimir

Putinhasbeeninpower.“Thisisnotanex­

cess,thisisthesystemwhichdeemsex­

tremeviolencetobethemosteffectiveway

ofsuppressingresistance,”oneRussianex­

pertexplains.Thismethodwashoneddur­

ingRussia’ssecondwarinChechnya.

InFebruary2000,barelya monthafter

MrPutinassumedRussia’spresidency,his

riotpoliceandsoldiersenteredNovyeAldi,

asuburb ofGrozny, Chechnya’s capital,

andwentfromhousetohousemurdering

civilians, according to eyewitness ac­

counts gathered by Memorial, Russia’s

main human­rights organisation, which

wasbannedlastyear.Sweepslikethesebe­

cameknownaszachistka, or“mopping­up”

operations. Betwen 56 and 82 civilians

werekilledandatleastsixwomenwere

rapedinNovyeAldi.

TheEuropeanCourtofHumanRights

foundtheRussianstateguiltyinthatcase,

aswellasothers.ButinRussiathecrimes

wereneverprosecuted,givinga senseof

impunitytothearmedforces.Itwasthose

whodocumentedthecrimeswhosuffered.

In 2009 NatalyaEstemirovaofMemorial

wasabductedfromherhomeinChechnya

andkilled.AnnaPolitkovskaya,a reporter

forNovayaGazeta,wasgunneddownthree

yearsearlierinMoscow.

Aninformationblockade imposedby

theKremlinhasmadeiteasierforRussian

forcestogetawaywithmurder.Sohasthe

acquiescenceoftheRussianpublic,who

tendedtodismissthewarinChechnyaas

somethingthatwashappeningfaraway.

Westerngovernmentsdidnot,forthemost

part,letitgetinthewayofdoingbusiness

withRussia.

Acultofaggressionhasgrownlikea

weed.CoverageofthefirstChechenwarin

themid­1990s,whenRussiastillhadfree

media,wasdominatedbystoriesoftrage­

dyanddespair.ButthesecondChechen

warwasdominatedbythepropagandaof

militaryheroism.Violencewashailedas

proofofmasculinity.“Many[veterans]de­

liberatelyemphasisetheirabilitytocom­

mitviolence,”saysElenaRacheva,a social

anthropologistatOxford.Onetoldher:“I

alwayshad principles.Myprinciple was

nottoleaveenemiesalive.”

Fromtheearly2000stheKremlinhas

leda campaignofmilitary­patrioticmobil­

isation.Encouragedbystatetelevision,to­

day’ssoldierslooktoa fatherwhofought

inAfghanistanandChechnyaanda grand­

father whofought intheGreatPatriotic

Warof1941­45astheirrolemodels.Thewar

inUkraineisframedasa re­enactmentof

thelatter,withUkrainianscastasNazis.

OnApril1sttheRussiandefenceminis­

tryreleaseda videofeaturingAlekseiSha­

bulin,a commanderofa battalionthatcar­

riedoutazachistkaaroundKyiv.“Mygreat­

grandfatherwentthroughtheentiresec­

ond world war and upto the year 1953

chasedthefascist devils...throughUkrai­

nianforests,”hesaid.“Iama glorioussuc­

cessorofthistradition.Nowmytimehas

come and I will notdisgracemy great­

grandfather—andI willgoalltheway.”n

NumberofmurderedciviliansinKyiv.Claimed

byUkraine’sprosecutor-generalonApril3rd

410

Chernihiv

Chernobyl

Prybirsk

Ivankiv

Makariv Irpin

Bucha

Nizhyn

Brovary

Kyiv

Antonov

Airport UKRAINE

BELARUS

Dnieper

km

AssessedRussianadvances(none)

Aprilth

Sources: InstitutefortheStudyofWar;

AEI’s CriticalThreatsProject

ClaimedUkrainiancounterattacks

The sixth week of war: Victories and war crimes Refugees

The battle of Kyiv ended in victory for

Ukraine as the invading forces withdrew

under fire to Belarus and Russia. But as

theyretreated, they left behind evidence

ofsummary executions and torture,

which are war crimes.

As the tide turned, the number of refugees

fleeing Ukraine each day continued to

decline. On April 4th the unhcr recorded

32,000 new arrivals in neighbouring

countries, compared with more than

150,000 a day at the start of the war.