The Economist - UK (2022-04-09)

The nomistApril9th 2022 Europe 29

cusi effortsinfewerplaces,Russia
hope mustersuperiornumbers.Ithas
accor lypulledbackforcesthatwere
headi owardsKyivfromSumyinnorth­
easternUkraine.UnitsthatwereinBelarus
arealsobeingmovedintowesternRussia,
accordingtorailway­trackingwebsites.
TheproblemforMrPutinisthatthese
forcesarespent.A quarterofhisinitialin­
vasionforcemayhavebeenwoundedor
killed.Outof 125 battaliontacticalgroups
(btgs)gatheredfortheinvasion, 29 have
been “rendered non­combat effective”,
saysa Westernofficial,meaningtheyhave
hadtobetakenoutofactionoramalgamat­
edwithothers.Fixingthemandmoving
themeastcouldtakearounda month.
Beyondthat,thereisnotmuchleftin
reserve:Russiacommittedthree­quarters
ofitsbtgs tothewar.Sincethenithas
scraped together additional forces from
whereveritcanfindthem,includingthe
exclaveofKaliningrad, wedgedbetween
hostilenatostates,anditsgarrisons in
Georgia,whichit invadedin2008.
Thenthereareconscripts.OnApril1st
Russiaannounceditsannualdraftofmen
aged 18 to27,withtheaimofconscripting
134,500fora year.Conscriptscannotlegal­
lybesenttowarwithoutfourmonthsof
training. In reality, some of last year’s
batchweresentinregardless.ButRussia
couldnotsendthemona largescale—nor
properly mobilise its pool of reservists
withpreviousexperience—unlessMrPu­
tinformallyacknowledgedthathis“spe­
cialmilitaryoperation”was,infact,a war.

Andevenifhedidthat,nationalmobilisa­

tionwouldtakeuntilthesummer.

SothisisagoodtimeforUkraineto

pressitscounter­attack:oneverydaydur­

ingthefinalweekofMarch,it gainedmore

territorythanit lost.ButaslongasRussian

troopsremaininBelarus,Ukrainecannot

shiftallitsforcestoDonbas.Ithastopro­

tectKyivanddefenditssupplylinesfrom

thewest.Nonetheless,itshouldbeableto

shiftsomeunitstotheeastandsouth,and

todosofasterthanRussiacan.

Ukraine,whichmobilisedfullyonFeb­

ruary24th,probablyhasadequateman­

power—it is currently drafting another

10,000to20,000men.Westernarmscon­

tinuetopourin.TheCzechRepublicispro­

vidingSoviet­madet­72tanks.Moreim­

portant,itsaysthat,withSlovakia,itmay

allowUkrainetouseitsfacilitiestorepair

equipment.Australiaissendingarmoured

fighting vehicles. On April 5th America

saiditwouldsendanother$100mofanti­

tanksystems.ButUkrainewillalsoneed

lesseye­catchingthingslikeSoviet­eraar­

tilleryammunitiontofeeditsgunsina

longwarofattrition.

Thatisthesortofwarthatmaybedevel­

oping.Russia’soriginalaimwastoenvelop

Ukrainian forces in Donbas by striking

theirrear,convergingonthecityofDnipro.

Wereittotrythatnow,havingabandoned

KyivandSumy,itsownflankswouldbe

vulnerabletoUkrainianattacksfromthe

north—itwouldriskbeingencircleditself.

SoRussiaisshiftingtoa more“brutish”

approach,saysMichaelKofmanofcna, a

think­tank:“Itlooksasthoughthey’rego­

ingtofrontallyassaultUkrainianforcesto

steadilysqueezethemoutofDonbas.”That

wouldinvolveadvancingsouthfromIzy­

um,northfromMariupolandpressingin

areaslikeSeverodonetsk,whereUkrainian

forcesaretrappedina salient.

InDonbas,Russiaenjoystheadvantage

thatitsairforceisstrongerthanitwas

aroundKyiv,andUkrainian airdefences

patchier.A frontalassaultwouldalsomean

shortersupplylines,whilethepassageof

timewillmeanlessmudtocontendwith.

Evenso,Russiastillseemstoberepeating

elementarymistakesitmadeinthefirst

daysofthewar.“Evenaslateas[April6th],

we’restillseeingsinglefilesofRussianar­

mourattemptingtoadvancedownroads,

andthencomingintoproblemswhenit’s

met by Ukrainian resistance,” says the

Westernofficial.

MrPutin’sgambleisthathecanwear

downUkraine’sarmybeforehissoldiers

losethewilltofight.Somethink,however,

thataRussian collapse may come first.

MarkCancianofcsis, anotherthink­tank,

reckonsthatascasualtiesmount,supplies

runoutandmoraledwindles,Russia’sgen­

eralswilleventuallyhavetocometogether

andforceMrPutintofacefacts.Butthere

seemslikelytobea lotmorefightingbe­

forethat.“Thishassimilaritiestomajor

set­piecebattlesfrompriorworldwars,”

saysMrKofman.“Andnowit’sgoingto

comedownnotjusttomanpowerandma­

teriel, but also intangible factors—skill,

force,employmentandmorale.”n

Numberofmissile,artilleryandairstrikesonKyiv

Weeksending 300

200

100

0

Mar Mar Mar Mar Apr

4.5

3.0

1.5

0

Feb Mar Apr

Cumulativerefugeedepartures fromUkraine

Since Febth,m

Severodonetsk

Mykolaiv Melitopol Mariupol

Odessa Kherson

Dnipro

Zaporizhia

Chernihiv

Sumy

Okhtyrka

Myrhorod Kharkiv

Izyum

Kyiv

Chisinau

Black

Sea

Seaof

Azov

Dnieper

UKRAINE

BELARUS

SLOVAKIA

ROMANIA

MOLDOVA

RUSSIA

Crimea UkannexedrainianbyterritoryRussia

nsk

o

Area controlled by

Russian-backed

separatists before

Feb th

150 km

ClaimedasRussian-controlled

AssessedRussianadvances*

AssessedasRussian-controlled

Unitmovements

Russian Ukrainian

ClaimedUkrainian counterattacks

Aprilth

*Russiaoperatedinor attacked, but does

notcontrol Sources:Institute for the

StudyofWar; AEI’s Critical Threats

Project; RochanConsulting

UKRAINE

March th

Do

nba

s

Ukraine fights back

Although Ukraine has taken back large

areas in the north, Russia is pressing hard

in the south and the east. Analysts expect

it will continue its attempts to occupy the

whole of the Donbas area. Residents have

been urged to flee Kharkiv.