14 Leaders The Economist April 16th 2022
dates; Ms Le Pen will grab those of the farright Eric Zemmour. So
the election will be determined by a scrabble for the votes of the
perennial firebrand, JeanLuc Mélenchon, who got an astonish
ing 22%, thanks partly to tactical voting on the left. Mr Mélen
chon has told his supporters that “not a single one” of his votes
should go to Ms Le Pen. Many will defy him out of their hatred of
the former banker in the Elysée and their anger at the depriva
tion of France’s leftbehind rural backwaters, postindustrial
towns and urban slums. But Ms Le Pen needs to secure the great
bulk of Mr Mélenchon’s votes to win, and that will be hard.
The Economist’s pollofpolls has the race at a tight 5347%.
Nevertheless our electoral model, which is based on that, gives
Ms Le Pen a oneinfive chance of victory, about the same as Do
nald Trump faced on some estimates at the 2016 election in
America. Mr Macron needs to campaign his socks off to min
imise the likelihood of something as shocking happening in
France on April 24th.
French voters should be in no doubt: a Le Pen presidency
would be a disaster for France and for Europe. Ms Le Pen has in
the past expressed open admiration for Mr Trump and VladimirPutin and still supports Hungary’s autocratic Viktor Orban. She
wants to pull France out of nato’s integrated command struc
ture, and to ban the Muslim headscarf (though not other
scarves). She has dropped her call for France to leave the euro,
but would pick fights with the euin her quest to give priority to
French citizens in government handouts and jobs, to give
French law primacy and to slash French payments to the eu’s
budget. A Le Pen victory would also give heart to the hard right
elsewhere in Europe, notably Italy, which is due an election next
year. The eu would face a grave crisis. Huge, perhaps violent,
protests could well roil France’s streets.
Whatever transpires in the second round, the fact that on
April 10th a record 58% voted for the extremes of right and left is
a sign that France is divided and unhappy. In presidential poli
tics the two mainstream parties of left and right that supplied al
most all its governments since 1958 have been vaporised—their
candidates got less than 7% between them. If the fourinfive
chance does indeed give Mr Macron his second term, he must
use it to tackle the root causes of this division anddiscontent.
Russian roulette is not a game to be played repeatedly.nW
hen somebodyhasa luckyescapedotheylearnfromtheir
mistake, or are they emboldened to make the next one?
That was the question facing Britain on April 12th after the prime
minister, along with his wife and chancellor, received a “fixed
penalty notice”—a small fine—for a gettogether during the co
vid19 lockdowns. The answer, alas, is that Boris Johnson has
form. However repentant he now is in public, in private he will
be revelling in his knack for wriggling out of the tightest spots
like a greased piglet. For Britain, that is not a good outcome.
For several weeks, starting towards the end of last year, “Par
tygate” looked as if it might end Mr Johnson’s political career.
Revelations emerged that the prime minister and his staff had
been boozing at one kneesup after another, in
breach of the government’s own covid rules. Mr
Johnson first told Parliament there had been no
parties. When that proved false, he said he had
not known about them. When he was shown to
have been at several, he denied that they were
really parties. When it was said he had been
warned, he seemed to suggest that he had mis
understood his own government’s rules.
Some Conservatives have argued that this week’s fine is no
more serious than a speeding ticket (see Britain section). In fact,
it proves that the police have in effect concluded that Mr John
son either lied to Parliament or was wildly ignorant of his gov
ernment’s policy on the biggest and most urgent issue of the day.
He has, in other words, been a knave or a fool—and few would
call the biographer of Churchill and Shakespeare a fool.
Breaking the law and lying to Parliament were sacking of
fences before Partygate and they still should be. But Mr John
son’s fate is in the hands of Tory mps and, at the moment, they
believe that they need him if they are to keep their seats at the
next election. It helps that Partygate no longer seems quite soheinousnowthatRussiaiscommittingwar crimes in Ukraine.
Given that Mr Johnson has helped lead the international co
alition against Vladimir Putin, Tory mps now say he is too im
portant to lose—though since Britain has changed prime minis
ters during its own wars, in 1916 and 1940, it is hard to see why it
should shrink from doing so during someone else’s.
Even though Mr Johnson may receive more fines over Party
gate, it will therefore not spell his end. But it will leave its Mer
lottinged mark on British politics. Mr Johnson has lost the trust
of voters. Snap polls taken this week suggest that about 60%
think he should resign and over 70% think he lied to Parliament.
Britain faces an energy crisis (see Bagehot), a huge backlog in the
health service and a surge in the cost of living. It
is a time for the hard choices that would stretch
the nerves of even the most esteemed prime
minister. Mr Johnson, who courts popularity, is
more likely than ever to duck them.
This scandal also casts a pall over the Con
servatives. The party of law and order has, with
open eyes, chosen to associate itself with Mr
Johnson’s lawbreaking and lies. It has been
tainted by them. However much it pretends that there were ex
tenuating circumstances, mps will learn the lessons—that rules
are for suckers, that the crime is getting caught and that, even if
you are nabbed, braggadocio will see you through. And Mr John
son and his party have eroded standards in public life. Because
elections are blunt instruments, these are in effect selfpoliced.
The prime minister is the chief enforcer of the ministerial code.
Because he is assumed to be beyond reproach, there is no prov
ision for when he himself is the problem.
Partygate is winding down. Sadly for Britain, the man with
more gates to his name than Heathrow airport has got awaywith
it again. You can count on the next one coming along soon.nBoris Johnson broke his own lockdown rules, but he won’t be forced from officePartygate, the final episode
Standards in British politics