30 TheAmericas TheEconomistApril16th 2022
A smaller flock
Religious affiliation, %Source: Latinobarómetro1996 2020Latin
AmericaCatholic Evangelical Non-religious1996 2020Brazil1996 2020Chile 1007550250agnostics and a whopping 65% of the unaf
filiated. There are also new beliefs. In Ar
gentina 72% of the unaffiliated, whose
ranks have almost doubled in the past de
cade, say they believe in spiritual “energy”
and a third believe in astrology. And de
spite the increase in “nones”, very few peo
ple describe themselves as atheists.
This reflects the strength of cultural Ca
tholicism, says Andrés Casas of Pontifical
Xavierian University in Bogotá, Colombia.
He notes that even members of former
communist guerrilla groups in Colombia
say things like, “Thanks be to God”. When a
Swedish satanist heavymetal band tried to
host a concert in Bogotá in 2018, officials
quickly had the venue shut down. Dr Gimé
nez Béliveau notes that there are crucifixes
in police stations and courts in Argentina.
“Religion is inscribed culturally,” she says.
But religious identities are becoming
more fluid. A Brazilian Catholic may attend
an evangelical service every now and again
because they like the style of worship. They
might also dabble in candomblé, a belief
system with African roots first imported to
the country by slaves, says Arlene Sánchez
Walsh of Azusa Pacific University in Cali
fornia. Charismatic Catholicism, which
mimics some aspects of evangelicalism,
has grown, too.
The political implications of these
changes are already being felt. The evan
gelical lobby in Brazil’s Congress includes
195 of 513 federal deputies. Jair Bolsonaro,
Brazil’s rightwing president, courted the
evangelical vote. Although he is a Catholic,
he was rebaptised in the River Jordan
shortly before his election in 2018 by an
evangelical pastor.
Evangelicals are a political force else
where, too. In Costa Rica an evangelical
singer reached the presidential runoff in
2018 after the InterAmerican Court on Hu
man Rights, which is based in the country,
ruled that samesex marriage should be le
gal. Mexico’s president won office partly
because of evangelical support. “Con mis
hijos no te metas” (Don’t mess with my
kids), an educational pressure groupfounded by the son of a Pentecostal pastor,
successfully agitated for the dismissal of
an education minister in Peru. In Colom
bia an alliance of religious groups caused
an openly gay education minister to resign
after her ministry tried to reduce discrimi
nation against lgbtyouths in schools.
As Latin Americans’ spiritual choices
become more varied, their politics could
become more polarised. Although the
trends are not uniform across the region,
believers tend to vote for rightwing par
ties, whereas “nones” lean far more to the
left. In Chile’s recent presidential election,José Antonio Kast, a hardright Catholic
candidate with nine children, courted reli
gious voters. Gabriel Boric, the leftist who
won, was supported by young graduates.
Father Fabián Báez, a Catholic priest in
Argentina, hopes that the church can win
back adherents. He loosely quotes Pope
Francis, an Argentinian and the first Latin
American pontiff, when he insists, “The
priest and the church need to be where the
people are, on social media, in the villages,
in the barrios.” But evenifthe priests do go
to those places, it isunclear that people
will follow them again.nO
ver thenextfourdecadesCanada’s
growth per person is expected to be
the lowest in the oecd, a club mostly of
rich countries. On April 7th Chrystia
Freeland, the finance minister, sought to
correct that. In presenting the federal
budget for the 202223 fiscal year, which
began on April 1st, she vowed to tackle
the “insidious” problem of low produc
tivity growth. She coupled that with a
promise to reduce debt, which soared
during the pandemic, as a share of gdp.
The budget looks like an attempt by
the Liberals, in office since 2015, to re
claim their reputation for centrism after
years of rising federal spending. Critics
say it falls short. It comes as the fortunes
of Justin Trudeau, the prime minister,
are improving after a rough patch. Police
removed antigovernment protesters
from the streets of Ottawa, the capital, in
February. The recent jump in the prices
of commodities Canada exports should
help protect its economy from an expect
ed decline in global growth. In March MrTrudeau,wholeadsa minority govern
ment, struck a “confidenceandsupply”
agreement with the leftleaning New
Democrats (ndp), which will probably
keep him in power until elections in2025. The opposition Conservatives are
preoccupied with choosing a new leader
in a vote due to take place in September.
Ms Freeland also has some money to
spend, partly because of a postpandem
ic economic recovery. She plans to fork
out C$9.5bn ($7.5bn) over five years,
0.4% of total spending, on measures to
spur homebuilding. A 50% rise in house
prices over the past two years is among
voters’ biggest concerns. Construction is
supposed to double over the next decade.
Foreigners, who are implausibly blamed
for pushing up prices, will be barred
from buying houses for two years.
Despite the deal with the ndp, Ms
Freeland “did show some restraint” on
spending, says Rebekah Young, an econ
omist at Scotiabank. The budget sets
almost nothing aside for a proposal,
backed by both parties, to provide uni
versal coverage of the cost of prescrip
tion drugs. Debt is projected to fall from
46.5% of gdplast year to 41.5% in 2026
27. But the government should do more
to restrain deficits “when times are
good”, says Ms Young. She argues that the
government’s plans to sustain growth
lack “a coherent vision”.
Ms Freeland’s most notable idea is to
establish an “arm’slength” Canada
Growth Fund. Initially capitalised at
C$15bn, it is supposed to attract at least
three times that from the private sector
to boost green businesses and exports.
Missing from the budget are measures
that would have a bigger payoff, such as
giving incentives to provinces to remove
barriers to trade. Ms Freeland’s quest for
growth could have been bolder.
Canada’sbudgetGoing for growth
The Liberal government shuffles towards the centreAcautious Chrystia Freeland