The View is reported by Mariah Espada, Nik Popli, and Simmone ShahTHE VIEW OPENER
This helps put into geographic per-
spective the huge size of the potential
crop area put at risk by the Ukraine
war. So is the world facing a full-
blown food crisis brought on by the
conflict between Ukraine and Russia?
Since the breakup of the Soviet
Union in 1991, Ukraine has regained
its traditional position as one of the
most important breadbaskets of the
world. More than 55% of Ukraine’s
land area is “farmable,” and it has
some of the most productive soils on
the globe. According to the USDA,
Ukraine produces about 4% of global
corn and wheat supplies, 7% of barley,
and 31% of sunflower oil.
It is not just the size of Ukrainian
crop production that is worrisome for
global food supplies, but the fact that
so much of it is exported. Ukraine is
now the fifth largest exporter of wheat
in the world, supplying 10% of global
wheat exports. Ukrainian farmers have
fallen in love with corn, and now con-
tribute nearly 15% of global exports.
Of particular concern is the des-
tination of Ukraine’s agricultural ex-
ports. In the wheat market, the main
buyers include Bangladesh, Egypt,
Indonesia, and Pakistan, all countries
with rapidly growing populations and
limited means for dealing with short-
falls. This is not as a big a concern for
Ukraine’s corn exports, as China is its
main buyer and runs a surplus.
The big question is whether the
impact of the Ukrainian conflict on
global grain supplies is likely to be
similar to a severe drought, or some-
thing much worse. There is definitely
the potential for the latter. A drought
typically does not entirely zero out
crop acreage in a major producing na-
tion. This is where the timing of the
Russian invasion is so important. The
planting window for spring crops in
Ukraine is basically the same as it is
in the U.S. corn belt: April and May.
Once the war started, it was easy to see
it spilling into the spring planting sea-
son and severely affecting the ability
of farmers to sow their crops.
The obstacles that Ukrainian farm-
ers face at the present time are cer-
tainly formidable. There is no prospect
of planting spring crops in the areas
with active fighting. Other parts of the
A farmer wears a bulletproof vest during crop sowing 30 km from
the front line in the Zaporizhzhia region in southeastern Ukrainecountry so far spared fighting still face
shortages of fuel, labor, and other crop
inputs, especially fertilizer. Just imag-
ine how many Ukrainian farmers have
taken up arms and are fighting some-
where in the nation right now.GoinG aGainst this pessimistic view
is the inherent resourcefulness of
farmers. There is room for a bit of op-
timism on this front given the recent
pullback of Russian troops away from
territories in the north. This means
that large chunks of Ukrainian crop
production are now not as directly
threatened by the fighting. But heavy
fighting continues in the eastern and
southern regions of Ukraine.
The Ukrainian Agricultural Min-
istry surprised many by saying that
it expects 70% of spring crops to be
planted, and up to 80% if “de-mining”
is completed in northern areas previ-
ously occupied by Russia. While all of
Ukraine’s spring crops are obviously
not going to get planted, this suggests
the worst-case scenarios are not likely
to happen. It is now safe to assume
that at least half of Ukraine’s spring
crops will be planted, and I will not be
surprised if two-thirds is planted.
There is still a long way to go in terms
of getting their crops out of the field.
Then there is the issue of getting the
crops out of the country even if they are
produced. This may turn out to be the
real bottleneck. International shipping
from southern Ukrainian ports alongthe Black Sea is at a complete standstill,
and is likely to remain that way as long
as the war continues. It is impossible to
get insurance on shipping in this area.
Progress is being made in rerouting crop
exports from Ukraine via rail and truck,
but this is more expensive, with much
lower capacity.
World grain markets are in the pro-
cess of sending signals to producers
and consumers to make needed ad-
justments; hence the higher prices. If
Ukrainian farmers get as much of their
crops planted and harvested as I think
they will, then the shortfall will not
be as severe as was feared. While the
world may avoid a food-production
crisis, there is likely to be a food af-
fordability crisis in parts of the world.
Ukrainian (and Russian) wheat im-
ports are a staple in the diet of many
less-developed nations in the Middle
East and Africa. As grain markets do
their job of cutting demand in the face
of smaller supplies, the poor in import-
ing countries will be priced out of the
market. This does not bode well for the
well-being of millions of people around
the world, or political stability in many
less-developed nations. The situation
deserves careful monitoring, and the
provision of as much help from rich
countries as can be summoned.Irwin is the Laurence J. Norton chair
in the Department of Agricultural and
Consumer Economics at the University
of Illinois