Temperature-Based Phenology Modeling and GIS-Based Risk Mapping 429
In India, P. solenopsis is reported from areas
where the map shows an ERI of 0.8 and above,
but this does not necessarily means that it is per-
manently established in those areas. This sug-
gests that almost 80 % of area in India except
Northern Himalayas and North-Eastern high hills
region are highly suitable habitats for P. solenop-
sis establishment and survival. Present findings
regarding geographical habitat suitability for P.
solenopsis establishment are in conformity with
the predictions of MAXENT model (Fand 2012 ).
The generation indices simulated for India in this
study, gave reasonably good predictions when
compared with the literature data. Tanwar et al.
( 2011 ) reported that a female of P. solenopsis
can produce as many as 15 generations per year
in field conditions. Based on the laboratory life
table studies at 26 ± 1 °C, P. solenopsis is reported
to complete ten overlapping generations in a year
(Arif et al. 2012 ). A significant increase in the
number of generations per year under future cli-
mate conditions has been predicted by this study.
Ultimately, the potential for population abun-
dance and damage by the pest species will also
increase. The increased abundance of P. solenop-
sis under future climatic conditions indicates that
it may pose serious threat to agriculture in India.
The impact of climate change, especially temper-
ature increase on the geographic distribution and
spread of P. solenopsis in India has been reported
(Fand 2012 ).
Analyses of the within-year variation in popu-
lation increase contribute to better understanding
of temporal variation in P. solenopsis growth and
development in response to changing temperature
conditions. A peak activity of P. solenopsis dur-
ing the months of June–August predicted for the
north zone of India (Ludhiana) is in conformityFig. 10 Simulated finite rate of increase of P. solenopsis plotted using interpolated daily minimum and maximum
temperatures at 10 arc minutes resolution (SRES A1B scenario for the year 2050) obtained from worldclim database for
two locations of India: Ludhiana (a) and Akola (b)
Fig. 9 Simulated finite rate of increase of P. solenopsis plotted against daily minimum and maximum temperatures
recorded at two weather stations across India: Ludhiana (a) and Akola (b)