136
Figure 3.11 shows projections for the final scenario, Attain and Improve,
Unconditional and Conditional (AIUNC+COND). Here, the treatment has been expanded
to consider all 190 nations that have submitted an INDC, i.e., all plans whether
conditional or unconditional.^21 Note the extraordinary good agreement with the
(^21) Some of the INDCs are difficult to interpret quantitatively, with regards to reduction in the emis-
sion of GHGs. When in doubt, we used BAU for all projections. For 166 nations, the GHG emmis-
ion forecast is based on our best interprepation of the INDC. For the other 24 nations, the forecast
is based on BAU, becaue for these nations, the submitted INDC was qualititive rather than
quantitative.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
JRC BAU
JRC INDCs
JRC 2 °C Path
PBL
Unc. & Cond. INDCs
Global Emission
(Gt CO
−eq) 2
a
INDC Targets: Attain & Improve (Unconditional & Conditional)
RCP 8.5
RCP 4.5
RCP 2.6
Observation
Our Projection
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Per−Capita Emission
(t CO
−eq ppy) 2
c
US China India
Annex I Non−Annex I
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Emission by Group
(Gt CO
−eq) 2
b
US
China
India
Annex I
Non−Annex I
Fig. 3.11 Future GHG projections, Paris Unconditional and Conditional INDCs, Attain and
Improve. Same as Fig. 3.10, except our projections consider both unconditional and conditional
INDCs. We assume all of the unconditional and conditional INDCs are followed out to the time of
the commitment and, from that point onward, CO 2 -eq emissions continue to decline at the rate that
had been needed for each nation to have achieved its commitment. The data point for PBL
Netherlands is their projection for 2030, based on the unconditional and conditional INDCs. BAU
projections are used for nations that that did not submit an INDC. See Methods for further
information
3 Paris INDCs