178
used to drive the EM-GC calculation for this scenario were obtained from PICR
(Meinshausen et al. 2011) at:
http://www.pik-potsdam.de/~mmalte/rcps/data
Figure 4.11 shows probabilistic estimates of TCRE found using our EM-GC,
constrained by RCP 8.5 emissions. All simulations use OHC based on the average
of six data records shown in Fig. 2.8, and have been weighted by 1/χ^2 prior to cal-
culation of the probabilities. Cumulative CO 2 emissions due to land use change,
combustion of fossil fuel, cement production, and flaring from RCP 8.5 (Riahi et al.
2011 ), as archived by PICR at the link given for Methods of Fig. 4.2, are used to
define the horizontal axis.
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