Paris Climate Agreement Beacon of Hope

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(IUKv2) processing. Results are displayed as a function of altitude, rather than pres-
sure, using a standard climatology for altitude versus pressure of the tropical atmo-
sphere. The tropopause has been placed at the altitude corresponding to a pressure
of 100 hPa. The patterns of tropospheric warming, stratospheric cooling, and drop
in the tropospheric lapse rate (i.e., more warming aloft than at the surface) illus-
trated in Fig. 1.5 are seen throughout the global atmosphere, in addition to the trop-
ics (Sherwood and Nishant 2015 ).
Figure 1.6 shows CO 2 from Mauna Loa Observatory (Keeling et al. 1976 ) and
global annual average CO 2 (Ballantyne et al. 2012 ) provided by NOAA ESRL at:
ftp://ftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/products/trends/co2/co2_mm_mlo.txt
ftp://ftp.cmdl.noaa.gov/products/trends/co2/co2_annmean_gl.txt
The global CO 2 record given at the above URL starts in 1980. We have extended this
record back to 1959 using annual, global average CO 2 growth rates given at:
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/global.html#global_growth
The data used to construct the CO 2 emissions from the combustion of fossil fuel
(Boden et al. 2013 ) plus land use change (Houghton et al. 2012 ) (green bars,
Fig. 1.6a) originate from file:
http://cdiac.ornl.gov/ftp/Global_Carbon_Project/Global_CarbonBudget
2015v1.1.xlsx
hosted by the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (CDIAC) at the US
Department of Energy's (DOE) Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). This same
file is also provided by the Global Carbon Budget at:
[http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/15/files/Global
](http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget/15/files/Global_)
Carbon_Budget_2015v1.1.xlsx
Contents of this file, which contains much more information than used here, are
described by Le Quéré et al. ( 2015 ). The blue bars are found by multiplying the
difference in annual average CO 2 mixing ratio, units of ppm, by 7.768, to arrive at
the mass of CO 2 in Gt (see Le Quéré et al. ( 2015 )). Finally, the Tropical Pacific
ENSO index represents the anomaly of sea surface temperature in the region
bounded by 20°S to 20°N latitude and 160°E to 80°W longitude, relative to a
long-term climatology. Monthly values of this index have been computed as
described by Zhang et al. ( 1997 ), using HadSST3.1.1.0 sea surface temperature
data (Kennedy et al. 2011a, b) provided by the Hadley Centre of the United
Kingdom Met Office in file:
http://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadsst3/data/HadSST.3.1.1.0/netcdf/HadSST.
3.1.1.0.median_netcdf.zip
Figure 1.7 shows CO 2 (Keeling et al. 1976 ), the O 2 /N 2 ratio (Keeling et al. 1996 ),
and δ^13 C of CO 2 (Keeling et al. 2005 ) from Mauna Loa Observatory (MLO) as well
as CO 2 from the South Pole (SPO) (Tans et al. 1990 ). For CO 2 , the solid black line
shows monthly mean data from NOAA ESRL, based on the same file given in
Methods for Fig. 1.6. Daily measurements of CO 2 at MLO (dots) are based on data
provided by the Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO) of the University of
California, San Diego at:
http://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/assets/data/atmospheric/stations/flask_co2/daily/
daily_flask_co2_mlo.csv


1 Earth’s Climate System
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