MODELS OF CAUSES AND EFFECTS

W

e all operate with mental models of external real ity. Usually they are

informal and implicit, developed in our own minds from physical

and cultural experience: models of people, traffi c, language, disease,

child development, and myriad others. In virtually every domain of our

lives, such models help us predict events and the eff ects of our actions.

Scientists try to make their models more explicit through systematic

observations, constructing cause- and- eff ect theories, testing hypotheses,

criticizing, coming up with revisions or alternatives, and so on. Every step

is conducted and reported in ways that permit replication by others. We

can be more sure of our models when we all agree that we are “seeing” the

same thing.

However distant in time the objective may be, this scientifi c modeling

is nearly always done with the goal of intervention in mind. Funding bod-

ies and governments provide the resources precisely in the hope that the

work of scientists will help to devise interventions for medical, social, and

other prob lems. As we have seen, governments have been particularly

interested in human potential for both practical and ideological reasons,

and such ideology creeps into the science. Th is has been the case particu-

larly with intelligence and with school attainment.

A good model is crucial for any intervention. It will provide a pro cess

account of how a system works; for example, how intelligence develops

in childhood and what causes variation in it. So a good model will help

us describe the best circumstances for promoting human development,

10. PROMOTING POTENTIAL

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