The Sunday Times - UK (2022-04-24)

A

Tory minister has been

accused of helping orchestrate

a rebellion against the prime

minister when dozens of

Conservative MPs refused to

block an investigation into

whether Boris Johnson know-

ingly misled parliament.

According to sources close to the whip-

ping operation, justice minister Victoria

Atkins played a key role in trying to per-

suade up to 40 ministers, parliamentary

private secretaries and senior MPs to

abstain on a government amendment

designed to wreck Labour’s motion call-

ing for a Commons inquiry.

The amendment would have delayed a

vote on whether to refer the matter to the

privileges committee until after the Met-

ropolitan Police and Sue Gray inquiries

had been completed.

However, it was abandoned only

moments before the debate began, as it

became clear that the number of absten-

tions among ministers and MPs meant

that the government was heading for

defeat. “She [Atkins] calculated that if

ministers abstained en masse, there

would be too many of them to withdraw

the whip,” a source claimed.

Friends deny she was involved in any

kind of plot but say she was talking to col-

leagues in an effort to bring the situation

to a “soft landing”.

To add to Johnson’s woes, it has now

emerged that Stuart Glassborow, his dep-

uty principal private secretary, is leaving.

While Downing Street sources insisted

his departure is not linked to the parties

scandal, friends of Glassborow say he has

been seeking a career move for some

time. One added that he was one of the

“good guys” and “saved the PM’s bacon”

on a number of occasions when others

close to him had badly advised him.

Johnson was last night back in the

country and telling aides it was “business

as usual” after a two-day trade visit to

India dogged by questions over the

“partygate” saga that refuses to die.

After a brief statement of apology to

MPs on Tuesday, he had flown out after

prime minister’s questions on Wednes-

day confident that his whips had the

numbers to prevent any mishaps while

he was out of the country. Indeed he

briefed journalists on the plane to India

that he fully planned to lead the Tories

into the next general election. But even as

he briefed the media, the first signs were

emerging that he was in serious trouble.

On Wednesday evening Chris Heaton-

Harris, the chief whip, was forced to can-

cel his weekly meeting with the leaders of

the 1922 committee of Tory backbench-

ers when it became clear that many

Tories felt unable to vote against the

Labour amendment.

In a last-minute attempt to see off a

huge rebellion, the whips began drafting

a government amendment that would

give Tory MPs the ability to save face but

delay any new investigation into John-

son’s conduct. By Thursday morning, it

became clear that they had badly miscal-

culated, with as many as 40 MPs threat-

ening to abstain and several more threat-

ening to vote with Labour.

Nickie Aiken, the Tory MP for Cities of

London and Westminster, was among

those to tell the chief whip she would not

support the prime minister.

Aiken, a former leader of Westminster

city council, cited her concerns about the

impact of the parties scandal on the local

elections in her area, one of London’s key

battlegrounds. She was joined by Damian

Green, chairman of the One Nation cau-

cus of Tory MPs, who conveyed the

strength of feeling among moderates to

the chief whip.

It is now clear that the relatively muted

reaction to the prime minister’s fixed

penalty notice the previous week had

lulled him and his team into a false sense

of security. Now even those who work

alongside him in No 10 put his chances of

long-term survival no higher than 50:50.

The pivotal moment came shortly

after 9am on Thursday when he was con-

tacted by aides who warned him his sup-

port was ebbing away. He swiftly

informed them to pull the amendment

and the three-line whip and said that he

was happy for Tory MPs to “do whatever

they want” when voting that evening.

The reaction among many in govern-

Caroline Wheeler and Harry Yorke

After a week in which

the prime minister lost

control of his party

— again — the Tories

now face local elections

that may determine

Johnson’s future

“I think that will be a desperately diffi-

cult cocktail for No 10 to digest. The logic

they seem to have is that somehow there

is no credible alternative and because of

that he’s got to stay. But the fact is the

Labour Party is laughing all the way.”

However, others remain sceptical

about the chances of successfully ousting

Johnson in a vote of no confidence. Even

if the threshold of 54 letters required to

trigger a ballot is met, one MP said that

members seeking to remove him were

likely to meet resistance from their grass-

roots association members.

Having spent months signalling that a

general election will not take place until

2024 — once inflation has come down —

No 10’s political strategists are now war-

gaming a poll as soon as next spring.

The motivation appears to be centred

on the so-called “incumbency factor” —

the belief that by holding an election ear-

lier than expected, the window in which

MPs could plausibly oust Johnson and

replace him is diminished.

Andrew Griffith, head of the prime

minister’s policy unit, told aides last

week that we were now closer to the next

general election than we are to the last.

Several inside No 10 believe that if

Johnson is still there by the next Conserv-

ative Party conference in October, he will

go on to fight for a second term.

But that still partly depends on

whether the voters reward the power of

prayer on May 5.

He was

lulled into

a false

sense of

security

Tories

could

now lose

up to 800

seats

Boris Johnson

poses with Hindu

holy men at

a temple in

Gandhinagar on

his visit to India

last week

WHAT’S AT STAKE ON MAY 5

4,359 seats

in 146 local authorities

(plus casual vacancies)

ENGLAND

1,234 seats

in all 22 councils,

all with boundary changes

WALES

1,226 seats

in all 32 councils. Single

Trans ferable Vote (ST V )

voting system

SCOTLAND

CURRENT CONTROL

SEATS BEING DEFENDED*

GOOD NIGHT OR BAD NIGHT

GOOD NIGHT OR BAD NIGHT

*accounting for boundary changes

Source: Colin Rallings and Michael Thrasher,

Associate Members, Nuffield College, Oxford http://www.electionscentre.co.uk

No overall

contol^271029

Ind/other 0 33

Green 0 Plaid Cymru 1 SNP 0

Lib

Dem^1100

Lab 62 70

Con 46 10

1 ,4 00 2,226 517 52164 197 462 59 208 308 277 262 67 432 188

350+ losses

Probably caught in a pincer

moment between Labour and

the Lib Dems. Tory MPs in

marginal “red wall“ and

southern seats will be worried

100-150 losses

Spun as ‘mid-term blues’ but

would confirm Tories now trail

Labour in popular support

100-150 gains

Tories continue to make

inroads into unfamiliar,

previously Labour territory.

A vindication for Johnson

Little change

Neck and neck with Labour

would be gratefully accepted

TORIES

200+ gains

Best local election performance

for at least a decade. Potentially

a foothill on the way to

becoming the largest party

at Westminster even if short

of an outright majority

50-100 gains

Progress on 2018, including

perhaps gaining target

councils in Southampton

and Wandsworth

100-200 losses

2021 all over again with

support in parts of the

urban north and Midlands

still vulnerable

Little change

Disappointing given

government’s woes but

suggests a much more solid

performance in “red wall“ seats

LABOUR

50-100 gains

Eating into Tory territory

and could threaten some

marginal constituencies

50-100 losses

First clear reverse

since the days of the Cameron

coalition. Voters again

question their relevance

Little change

Comfortable enough in their

own heartlands but little

evidence of growing appeal

LIB DEMS

with Labour damaged by

accusations of antisemitism.

Sir Keir Starmer’s party will

now hope to put that behind

it and win overall control

here for the first time.

In Croydon, on the other

hand, Labour is on the

defensive. The council has

been beset by financial and

other problems and a voter

backlash is a distinct

possibility. The election is

made more intriguing by the

contest for the borough’s first

directly elected mayor

following strong support at a

referendum in October.

Outside London, the fact

that only between one third

and half of the seats fall

vacant in most councils limits

the scope for change.

Labour retains its

dominance in the

metropolitan boroughs with

overall control in 28 out of

the 36, but the party has

fallen back since 2018. It

registered seat losses in both

2019 and 2021 as voters

deserted it in several red wall

areas in the north of England

and the Midlands.

Those particular seats

cannot be recouped this year,

so Labour will perhaps

concentrate on hoping to

show that its share of the vote

has bounced back. In

Barnsley, for example, a 58

per cent share of the vote in

2018 slumped to 37 per cent

in 2019 and 41 per cent last

year. In Sunderland, 47 per

cent became 33 per cent and

39 per cent. In Wakefield,

where a key parliamentary

by-election is anticipated, 52

per cent became 43 per cent

and 45 per cent. Any such

recovery will provide

evidence that Brexit has

ceased to be a defining issue

in areas like these and that

more traditional domestic

concerns have taken over.

Away from the big cities it

is the Tories who are

defending the largest number

of seats. And it is in these

areas that they are most at

often express disillusionment

with mainstream politics by

voting Green or for an

independent candidate. The

Green Party has gained no

fewer than 16 council seats, 13

of them from the Tories,

since last May. Independents

have been boosted by

councillors defecting from

and standing against their

original party following

personal or policy

disagreements. Expect both

to make progress on May 5.

Wales and Scotland

present rather a different

case from that of England.

Their last local elections were

held in 2017 when the Tories

appeared to be carrying all

before them. Losses now in

Wales are almost inevitable

with Labour looking to fight

back in councils such as

Bridgend and Denbighshire

where the party lost

parliamentary seats in 2019.

The single transferable vote

system (STV) in Scotland

mitigates against radical

change, but look for signs of

the SNP bubble bursting and

whether the Tories can

remain the main unionist

opposition ahead of Labour.

Colin Rallings and Michael

Thrasher are associate

members of Nuffield

College, Oxford

risk of being caught in a

pincer movement between

Labour and the Liberal

Democrats.

In Southampton two

Labour gains from the Tories

would lead to a direct switch

in control. However, Labour

has not won the pivotal wards

since 2016. In Crawley the

Tories rather than Labour are

perhaps best placed to seize

an outright majority, whereas

in Worthing — perhaps

surprisingly — demographic

change has led to a long-term

shift towards Labour. It could

now become the largest

group on the council for the

first time.

In parts of rural and

suburban England the Tories

could also suffer in a revival

of the threat the Lib Dems

used to pose in the years

before going into coalition

with David Cameron.

Elections for the new

unitary authority in Somerset

offer the Lib Dems a chance

to make their mark again in a

county where they won four

of the five constituencies at

the 2010 general election.

And just before Easter they

made a symbolic gain from

the Tories in a council by-

election in the heart of

Michael Gove’s affluent

Surrey Heath constituency.

At the local level voters

ment was one of disbelief. “I literally

don’t understand what the f*** they’ve

done,” said one source on hearing the

amendment had been abandoned.

Several insiders pointed the finger at

Heaton-Harris, who was drafted in as

chief whip in February after Johnson

sought to refresh his top team in the wake

of the backlash. Many within the party

now feel he has failed his first test.

Compounding the sense of chaos was

the bizarre suggestion that Heaton-Harris

himself had suggested he could now back

the Labour motion.

His comment is alleged to have been

made during a private meeting of the

whips that morning, shortly before the

U-turn was confirmed publicly.

H

is remarks were swiftly relayed to a

handful of backbench colleagues.

Allies of Heaton-Harris insisted his

comments were designed to rein-

force the prime minister’s position

that he was not seeking to “hide” from an

investigation. There was no better way of

demonstrating that, they argued, than

the chief whip voting in favour.

However, the explanation has been

given short shrift by senior Conserva-

tives, who pointed out that it would have

meant the man charged with guarantee-

ing the prime minister’s majority in par-

liament would have been voting in favour

of a statement that suggested he had mis-

led the house. “It is very frustrating

because you try to be loyal and morally

supportive and then they f*** you about

like that. It is unbelievable, to be honest.

It is an incredible shambles,” said one MP.

Heaton-Harris’s strange pronounce-

ment capped off an extraordinary 48

hours for the chief whip, who began his

week by trying to kill off Labour’s motion.

According to sources, he had a heated

exchange with Sir Lindsay Hoyle, the

Speaker of the Commons, as he chastised

him for approving Labour demands for a

vote in the first place.

In the event, Labour won its vote and

Johnson now faces an investigation by the

privileges committee into claims that he

misled the house, which is likely to drag

on until the autumn.

Most worrying for Downing Street is

that the committee has the power to

demand photographs handed to the Gray

inquiry and the police.

The latest tranche of fines issued on

Friday evening for a “bring-your-own-

booze” garden party in Downing Street in

May 2020 could also see Johnson back in

parliament having to explain himself all

over again. Scotland Yard last week said

they would not announce publicly any

more fines until after the local elections.

This has infuriated Gray, whose full

report remains unpublished.

In any event, Tory whips are already

engaged in an expectation management

exercise, with a number of MPs told last

week that the prime minister could face

the maximum possible fine for multiple

lockdown breaches. This is capped at

£6,400, although organisers of illegal

events could be fined up to £10,000.

Johnson has told friends he has been

assured that he will receive only one fine.

Whether this is true or not, many Tories

fear the most immediate danger to the

prime minister will come after a bruising

set of local election results on May 5.

The most pessimistic predictions are

that they could lose up to 800 seats,

while also losing control of three key Lon-

don councils and several in the north and

Midlands. More realistic forecasts put the

losses at between 350 and 400.

U

ntil last week MPs believed that the

party scandal was largely confined

to Westminster, with most back-

benchers receiving far fewer

emails than they had when

Dominic Cummings made his 260-mile

trip to Barnard Castle during lockdown.

The situation on the ground has now

altered dramatically, with one MP receiv-

ing 500 emails on the subject in the past

seven days.

A minister said: “There are three inter-

locking factors that will come together in

a few days: terrible local election results,

which they will try to pin as normal mid-

term problems; there will be more fines

immediately after; and then there will be

the Sue Gray report itself, which will dem-

onstrate the systemic failures of No 10.

PRAYING

for forgiveness

STEFAN ROUSSEAU/AFP/GETTY IMAGES

The Sunday Times April 24, 2022 7

The bigger

the losses,

the more

the PM’s

position

will come

under

threat