atmospheric carbon levels later in this century. They followed that with
another study, published in November 2002 in the journal Science,
calling for a Manhattan-type crash project to develop renewable energy.
Using conservative estimates of future energy use, they found that
within 50 years, humanity will need to be generating at least three
times more energy from noncarbon sources than the world currently
produces from fossil fuels to avoid what would likely be a catastrophic
build-up of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) later in this century.
Climate change is no longer a science issue. Stripped bare, it is a
titanic clash of interests that pits the ability of this planet to support civ-
ilization versus the survival as we know it of the oil and coal industry,
which is one of the largest commercial enterprises in history.
Unintentionally, we have already set in motion massive systems of
the planet with huge amounts of inertia, whose stability has kept this
earth relatively hospitable for the last 10,000 years. We have reversed the
carbon cycle by about 400,000 years. We have heated the deep oceans.
We have unleashed a wave of violent and chaotic weather. We have
altered the timing of the seasons. We are living on an increasingly nar-
row margin of stability.
While climate science can be dizzyingly complex, the underlying
facts are simple. Carbon dioxide in the atmosphere traps heat. For the
last 10,000 years, we enjoyed a constant level of CO2—about 280 parts
per million (ppm)—until about 100 years ago, when we began to burn
more coal and oil. That 280 has already risen to 370 ppm—a concentra-
tion this planet has not experienced for 420,000 years. It is projected to
double to 560 ppm later in this century, correlating with an increase in
the average global temperature of 3 to 10° F. (For perspective, the last Ice
Age was only 5 to 9 degrees colder than the current climate.)
Evidence for the build-up of heat-trapping carbon dioxide abounds:
The eleven hottest years on record have occurred since 1983; the five
hottest consecutive years were 1991 to 1995; 1998 replaced 1997 as the
hottest year on record; 2001 replaced 1997 as the second-hottest year
and 2001, in turn, was replaced by 2002 in second place; the decade of
the 1990s was the hottest at least in this past millennium; and the
planet is heating more rapidly than at any time in the last 10,000 years.
The evidence, moreover, rests on a far broader base than computer
2 Introduction