China (or anywhere else) a better life. Nevertheless, with 45 percent of
humanity now subsisting on less than $2 a day, a difficult question
arises: Can the world in the coming decades accommodate the ascent
out of poverty of nearly three billion people without overwhelming the
ecosystems that make life on this planet possible in the first place?
If only because nearly one of every four humans on Earth lives there,
China will be decisive to our collective environmental future—so much
so that it ranks as an environmental superpower. Like the United States,
the other main environmental superpower, China wields what amounts
to veto power over the rest of the world’s environmental progress. China
and the United States are each responsible for such a large share of
global pollution that any attempts to, say, reduce greenhouse gas emis-
sions simply cannot succeed without their cooperation.
The United States, with 286 million people, casts its environmen-
tal shadow largely through its extravagant consumption patterns; the
average American consumes nearly fifty times more goods and serv-
ices than the average Chinese. China’s environmental heft still derives
mainly from its massive population. But as incomes keep rising in
China, the high-impact consumption patterns promoted by Western
capitalism are becoming increasingly common too, and the conse-
quences could be disastrous—not just for China but for all of us.
A MIXEDPICTURE
Yet China’s environmental future is not necessarily as black as its skies
are today. China has made impressive investments in energy efficiency
over the past 20 years—much greater, in relative terms, than what the
United States has done. If China continues this approach in the decades
ahead, there is a chance that its production of greenhouse gases can be
limited to an amount consistent with a living planet. It will not be
easy—China’s emissions are certain to increase even under the best of
circumstances, and one must always approach the statements of
Chinese officialdom on this matter (and most others) with caution.
Nevertheless, the opportunity to “green” China is real, and Western gov-
ernments and corporations could actually benefit politically and finan-
cially from this opportunity, if they have the wit to seize it.
China 17