Flight International – 11 June 2019

ightglobal.com 11-17 June 2019 | Flight International | 55

PARIS

F-35

Lockheed Martin

In April, Greece said it was considering buy-
ing up to 30 F-35s to replace its oldest Lock-
heed F-16C/Ds. In May, Poland formally re-
quested 32 F-35As, along with a logistics and
training package. The governments of Roma-
nia and Spain have not revealed their plans.
Beyond Europe, Canada and Singapore are
interested in buying the F-35. Singapore plans
to buy four examples initially to test, with the
option to buy eight more. Canada is one of the
original nine partner nations in the Joint Strike
Fighter development programme, but has dith-
ered over buying the aircraft. Ottawa is expect-
ed to release a request for proposals for 88 air-
craft as part of its Future Fighter programme in
mid-2019.

SUBSTANTIAL MARKET
Europe certainly is a big opportunity for the
F-35, says Douglas Barrie, senior fellow for
military aerospace at the International Institute
for Strategic Studies in London. “The only sur-
prise for me would be if the F-35 didn’t make
any more sales in Europe. It’s not a question of
if, but a question of when. In many ways, it’s
the competitor to beat,” he says. “That’s not to
say it’s always going to win.”
In Finland’s H-X contest to replace 62 F/A-
18C/Ds, the stealth fighter’s youth could give it
an edge, says Barrie. Potential competitors in-
clude the Dassault Rafale, Saab Gripen E,
Super Hornet and Typhoon.
“[The F-35 is] the youngest of the aircraft in
the competition in design terms, so that has to
be an advantage,” he says. “The challenge to
the competitors is that they have an upgrade
path which keeps their platform relevant and
combat capable.”
In other competitions, Lockheed’s bid may
be less competitive, however. For example, in

Switzerland the F-35 might be overkill.

“What did they go for last time? They went

for a Gripen as the answer to the competition,

which in some ways was the most modest of

the aircraft on the table,” says Barrie. “Their

focus tends to be territorial air defence – much

less offensive operations, where you are look-

ing to your stealth as a primary capability.”

The F-35 might also be too much for Roma-

nia. The country’s air force is mostly made up

of two dozen Mikoyan MiG-21s, plus second-

hand F-16A/Bs, according to Cirium’s Fleet

Analyzer. “That’s an awful lot of airplane for

that country,” says Barrie.

For its part, Greece’s economy has recently

returned to growth and is projected to contin-

ue to expand. Although the country’s sky-high

debt levels are declining, it might still need fi-

nancing help from the USA to afford the F-35.

Lockheed argues that lower prices for its

fighter will open new markets. The company

points out that the aircraft’s unit cost has de-

clined by 60% since Lot 1 in 2007 and is prom-

ising that it will be below $80 million by Lot

14 in 2020 for an F-35A. The company also

claims it can bring its operating costs down to

$25,000 per hour by 2025, although the Penta-

gon’s Cost Assessment and Program Evalua-

tion office said in May that it doubted that was

possible.

While pursuing new sales, Lockheed could

be challenged to hold onto old orders. Its projec-

tion of 500 F-35s in Europe by 2030 assumes

every country will buy its full programme of re-

cord, and that the USA will station 48 of its

stealth fighters in Europe. If political winds

blow in the wrong direction, the actual count

could easily come up short, however.

For example, should Russia deliver the

Almaz-Antey S-400 air-defence system to Tur-

key before July as promised, the USA would

likely halt deliveries of the F-35A. That would

jeopardise Ankara’s 100-aircraft commitment.

There are also lingering doubts that Italy and

the UK will fulfil their original commitments.

Italy, which has already reduced its F-35 order

once before, from 131 to 90 aircraft, is led by a

coalition government that includes the Five Star

party, a populist group that has threatened to re-

duce funding for F-35 purchases. The other half

of its leadership is dominated by the Northern

League, which supports buying the F-35. Italian

F-35s are produced at a final assembly and

check-out facility in Cameri: an area of the coun-

try that strongly supports the Northern League.

The UK is committed to buying 138 aircraft

as part of its programme of record. The Royal

Navy needs 48 examples of the F-35B, the

short take-off and vertical landing variant, for

its two Queen Elizabeth-class aircraft carriers.

However, the UK’s ambitions to develop a no-

tional sixth-generation fighter, via BAE Sys-

tems’ Tempest concept, could cut into its ap-

petite for the F-35, says Barrie.

“It’s unlikely the UK will take 138. How

close to that number London gets remains to

be seen,” says Barrie. “In part, it depends on

how Tempest progresses and when it will actu-

ally be entering service.”

Ultimately, Lockheed’s golden opportunity

will not last forever. Not only is President Don-

ald Trump pressing European NATO members

to meet their commitments to spend 2% of

GDP on defence, France, Germany and Spain

are pushing a joint FCAS development.

“Against this backdrop of Europe spending

more on defence, there is a political lobby that

says: ‘We really ought to spend that money

within Europe,’” says Barrie. ■

Gary Dawson/Shutterstock

BAE Systems concept will

not be delivered until at

least 2035

Italy has already scaled back

its Lightning II orders

“[The F-35 is] the youngest of

the aircraft in design terms, so

that has to be an advantage”

Douglas Barrie

Senior fellow, International Institute for Strategic Studies