The Economist - UK (2022-04-30)

TheEconomistApril30th 2022 19

Britain

NorthernIreland

Placards, paralysis anda protocol

T

he punditsand the psephologists are
all  gearing  up.  On  May  5th  voters  in
England, Scotland and Wales will go to the
polls in local elections: a bad result for the
Conservatives  could  stoke  unease  among
Tory mps about Boris Johnson’s leadership
after  his  breach  of  covid­era  lockdown
rules.  But  another  election  taking  place
that day is likely to prove more significant.
For  voters  in  Northern  Ireland  could
choose  as  the  biggest  party  one  that  does
not want Northern Ireland to exist.
For  the  past  101  years,  a  pro­British  (or
unionist)  party  has  won  every  election  to
Stormont, the province’s governing assem­
bly. And for the past 19 years the Democrat­
ic Unionist Party (dup) has always been the
victor.  If  the  polls  are  accurate,  that  is
about to change.
Sinn Féin, for decades the political wing
of the Irish Republican Army (ira), is pro­
jected  to  achieve  a  historic  victory.  That
does not mean Irish reunification is on the
immediate  agenda.  But  it  will  add  to  the
strains on the Good Friday Agreement, and
may provoke a fresh crisis in Britain’s rela­

tionshipwiththeEuropeanUnion.

SinnFéinisnota shoo­inforfirstplace.

Fearofdefeatisthedup’s greatesthopeof

victory: the party’scampaigncentreson

theatavisticmessagethatifunionistvot­

ersdonotendorseit,thentheywillgeta

SinnFéinFirstMinisterofNorthernIre­

land.Althoughthepostsoffirstanddepu­

ty first minister are joint and equal in

law—onecannotsomuchasordera pizza

intheirministerialrolewithouttheother’s

permission—theprospectofvictoryfora

partythatstilllaudsiraterroristsappals

manyunionists.

MichelleO’Neill,SinnFéin’sStormont

leader,hasplayeddowntalkofa victory

presaginga referendumonIrishreunifica­

tion.Insteadthepartyhasfocuseditscam­

paigningonissuessuchasthecostofliv­

ing,inordertoavoidincentivisingunion­

istvoterstoturnout.Andthesamepolls

whichhaveSinnFéinoncourseforvictory

showthatisonlybecauseitislosingsup­

portataslowerratethanthedup. Sinn

Féincouldbecomethebiggestpartyatthe

sametimeasitsshareofthevoteshrinks.

Inthosecircumstances,therewouldbe

littlepressureontheBritishgovernment

tocalla referendumonIrishunity.Under

theGoodFridayAgreement,whichin 1998

ended 30 yearsofbloodysectarianstrife,a

plebiscitemustbeheldifitappearslikely

thattheNorthernIrish electoratewould

votetoleavetheUnitedKingdom.

Yetthepastsixyearshaveshownhow

faroffunitymaybe.AnunpopularBrexit,

yearsofunionistincompetence,aprime

ministerwhomanagestounitevotersof

allstripesintheirdislikeofhim,anda

growingCatholic population amount to

themostpropitiouscircumstancespossi­

blefornationalism.Butadvocatesofunity

haveonlymarginally shifted thedialin

theirfavour:thelongest­runningpollon

B ELFAST
Elections on May 5th will widen the fissuresina fracturedpolity

→Alsointhissection

20 TheBrexiteffect

22 A dearthofdoctors

22 ThelaunchofTalkTV

24 Reformingstudentloans

25 ThedemiseofBillyElliot

26 Bagehot:KeirStarmer,cynic

Non-aligned movement

Northern Ireland, assembly elections

Vote share, %

Source: Nicholas Whyte, ARK

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

1998 2003 17161107

Other

Nationalist

Unionist