The Economist - UK (2022-04-30)

28 Europe TheEconomistApril30th 2022

France,andshowthatheisgoverningfor

themtoo.

Second,aheadoflegislativeelections

onJune12thand19th,MrMacronfacesa vi­

rulently hostile opposition, which calls

hima president“bydefault”.Themoment

theresultwasout,MrMélenchondeclared

him “the most poorly elected” modern

president.Thisisonthegroundsthatturn­

out,at72%,wasthreepointsbelowthatin

2017 andthelowestsince1969—although

stillhigherthanatrecentnationalelec­

tionsinAmericaandBritain.Moreover,ar­

guesMrMélenchon’scamp,sincetheleft

was“forced” tovoteforMrMacron,the

presidentlacksarealmandate.Totryto

blockhim,MrMélenchoniscallingfora

“popularunion”oftheleftforthelegisla­

tiveelections.Hiscampaignpostersays

simply:“Mélenchon,primeminister”.

WinninginJunewillbecrucialifMr

Macronistoshrugoffsuchchargesand

pressaheadwithreform,suchashisplan

toraisetheretirementagefrom 62 yearsto

64 or65.MrMacron’slremandalliedpar­

tiescurrentlyhold60%oftheseats.Since

Francein 2000 shortenedthepresidential

termtomatchtheparliamentaryone,vot­

ershavebackedeachpresidentwitha leg­

islativemajority.“Theconstitutionallogic

isforustowinanothermajority,butit will

bereallyhardwork,andwewillhaveto

fightconstituencybyconstituency,”says

RolandLescure,anlremdeputy.

ThetoughestrivalcouldwellbeMrMé­

lenchon,butonlyifhemanagestoreacha

dealwiththeGreensandSocialists.Given

theirdifferencesoversuchthingsastheeu

andarmingUkraine(heisscepticalabout

both),thisisbynomeansguaranteed;the

woundedSocialistsseemkeenerthanthe

Greens. MsLePen,meanwhile,isexpected

towina lotmorethanhercurrenttotalof

sevenseats,althoughthetwo­roundvot­

ingsystemdoesnotfavourherparty.For

theirpart,theRepublicansstandtolosea

chunkoftheir 101 seats.Theirpresidential

candidate,ValériePécresse,cameina hu­

miliatingfifthplace,andtheyhaveruled

outanyelectoralalliancewitheitherthe

nationalistsorlrem.

Themostlikelyscenario,saysVincent

Martigny,atSciencesPouniversity,isan­

othermajoritycoalitionoflremandallies.

Thiswouldincludea movementcreatedby

EdouardPhilippe,MrMacron’sex­Repub­

licanformerprimeminister.Behind­the­

scenes bargaining for constituencies is

nowunderway.MrMacronsayshewill

shortlynamea newprimeminister,tore­

placeJeanCastex.Asever,hehaskepthis

choicesecret,hintingonlyathisprefer­

enceforsomeonewitha recordongreen

andsocialissues.ElisabethBorne,hisla­

bourminister,isonenamecirculating.

Even so, the real opposition could

emergeonthestreets.ThatiswhyMrMac­

ron’spromisetogoverndifferentlycould

determinewhetherhecanforgea consen­

sus aboutchange, rather thandictate it

fromonhigh.He hasnowdefeated the

forcesofpopulismtwice.Forthis,history

willjudgehimwell.Buthewillnowhaveto

fighthisowninstincttotakealldecisions

himself.Andhehashisworkcutoutif heis

torenewtheappealofliberalpolitics,and

reversethatoftheextremes.n

An extremist inches closer to power

France, presidential elections

Second-round results, % of vote

Source:MinistryoftheInterior

*Orprevious †NationalRallyfrom201

2022

2017

2012

2007

2002

1995

1988

1981

0 25 50 75 100

Union for French Democracy

Republicans*

Socialists

National Front/National Rally†

La République en Marche

Mitterrand Giscard d’Estaing

Mitterrand Chirac

Chirac Jospin

Chirac J-M. Le Pen

Royal

Hollande

Macron

Macron

Sarkozy

Sarkozy

M. Le Pen

M. Le Pen

WarinUkraine

Pushing for

“victory”

“W

e gotta moveat the speed of war,”

declared  Lloyd  Austin,  America’s

defence  secretary,  as  he  signalled  a  new,

more intense phase in the West’s effort to

help Ukraine repel Russia’s invasion. It in­

volves  providing  more  and  heavier  weap­

ons, sustaining the effort for months and,

above  all,  embracing  the  belief  that  Uk­

raine can now “win”. 

America’s  novel  sense  of  purpose  was

apparent after Mr Austin and Antony Blin­

ken, the secretary of state, returned from a

furtive visit to Kyiv on April 24th. The Uk­

rainians,  Mr  Austin  said,  “have  the  mind­

set  that  they  want  to  win;  we  have  the

mindset  that  we  want  to  help  them  win.”

What is more, he said, “We want to see Rus­

sia weakened to the degree that it can’t do

the  kinds  of  things  that  it  has  done  in  in­

vading Ukraine.” 

This  was  a  notable  change  of  tone  and

ambition. In  London  on  April  27th,  Liz

Truss,  Britain’s  combative  foreign  secre­

tary, echoed the sentiment. “Ukraine’s vic­

tory is a strategic imperative for all of us,”

she declared. The West had to be “prepared

forthelonghaul”.AndonApril28th Presi­

dent Joe Biden proposed a new law autho­

rising the government to sell assets seized

from  Russian  oligarchs  under  various

sanctions and use the proceeds to help Uk­

raine.  Despite  serious  worries  about  due

process, this extraordinary measure seems

likely to be supported by Congress after the

House  backed  a  similar,  non­binding  bill

by 417 votes to 8.

To turn such talk into reality is harder.

Mr  Austin  hosted  a  gathering  in  Germany

on April 26th of some 40 countries to rally

more  military  support  for  Ukraine.  They

included  not  just  natoallies  but  friends

from  Asia,  the  Middle  East  and  Africa.  It

will meet monthly. Already there has been

a  shift  in  the  weapons  being  given  to  Uk­

raine: not just portable anti­tank arms but

now  armoured  vehicles,  tanks  and  howit­

zers;  not  just  Stinger  shoulder­fired  anti­

aircraft  missiles  but  also  parts  for  fighter

jets (and some talk of sending aircraft, too).

Germany,  reversing  its  refusal  to  provide

heavy  weapons,  announced  it  would  be

sending  50  Gepard  anti­aircraft  armoured

vehicles, which would be useful in shoot­

ing down low­flying aircraft and drones. 

America says the heavier equipment is

needed in the next stage of the war. Having

given up on taking Kyiv, Russia has massed

its troops in the south and east, where the

terrain  is  more  open.  Ukraine  thus  needs

“long­range  fires”  and  the  ability  to

manoeuvre. Ukrainian officials say they do

not yet have enough to go on the offensive.

Russia has been making slow progress.

It  has  taken  over  a  succession  of  villages

and has all but established an eastern land

corridor  between  Crimea  and  Donbas  (re­

gions  it  conquered  in  2014),  although  a

pocket  of  Ukrainian  soldiers  is  still  hold­

ing  out  in  the  Azovstal  steel  plant  in  the

devastated  port  city  of  Mariupol.  Russia

may be hoping to take enough land to de­

WASHINGTON, DC

America and Britain signal a new

mindset, but the endgame is unclear

More where that came from