The Economist April 30th 2022 45
AsiaHunSen’sCambodiaAutumn of the patriarch
H
is hours-long speeches lack the piz-
zazz of yesteryear. He is said to tire
more easily on his early-morning tread-
mill. Though still a stripling of an autocrat
at 69 years of age, the shadows are length-
ening on the rule of Hun Sen, Cambodia’s
prime minister. He has run the country, in
one form or another and increasingly ruth-
lessly, since 1985. That is longer than most
Cambodians have been alive. Now Mr Hun
Sen is starting to think of his legacy—and
how to reshape it. He would love to acquire
the respect that accrues to elder statesmen.
The dictator is aware of his dim stand-
ing in the world. Mr Hun Sen’s repression
of the political opposition and other civic
groupshas earned Cambodia pariah status
in much of the West. China’s outsized eco-
nomic, military and political influence has
made Cambodia resemble a vassal state.
This year neighbours in South-East Asia
were appalled when Mr Hun Sen became
the first foreign leader to visit General Min
Aung Hlaing, the leader of Myanmar’s out-
rageous coup. It made the prime minister
look like a fan of the general.
Even Mr Hun Sen has admitted to for-eign diplomats that his trip to Myanmar
went badly. Not only was he (predictably)
prevented from meeting Aung San Suu Kyi
or any other ousted civilian leader. He also
claimed he had secured the release of an
Australian adviser to Ms Suu Kyi, whom
the general has in fact kept locked up. Mr
Hun Sen grumbles that his trip was not an
endorsement of the junta. He says he
would have been damned if he did not at-
tempt to mediate, and damned if he did. He
decided to try.
Yet in other regards Mr Hun Sen has not
behaved as an autocrat in hock to China
might. The red carpet rolled out in March
for Kishida Fumio, making a rare visit for a
Japanese prime minister to Phnom Penh,
suggested that Mr Hun Sen wants otherAsian powers to balance China’s presence.
Japanese vessels even called by a naval
base on which China has designs.
More striking, the autocrat has heeded
the urgings of Japan and others to con-
demn Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Uk-
raine. He even insisted that Cambodia co-
sponsor a unresolution calling on Russia
to withdraw. That move stunned observ-
ers—including, presumably, China, which
has forged close ties with Russia. Cambo-
dia’s own relationship with Russia and the
former Soviet Union goes back to the Indo-
china wars of the second half of the 20th
century. Yet conscious, perhaps, that inter-
national law protects the smallest states
above all, Mr Hun Sen has told foreign visi-
tors that gross violations need to be called
out. The wannabe elder statesman was
writing himself into the history books.
Matters of legacy loom large at home,
too. In December Mr Hun Sen named a suc-
cessor: his eldest son, Hun Manet. Not that
Mr Hun Sen intends an imminent exit; he
has mentioned some time around 2028,
when the next (rigged) election but one is
due, as a good time to step aside—not
down. Singapore’s late leader, Lee Kuan
Yew, wielded influence for two decades
after retiring as prime minister, including
serving as “minister mentor”. He is often
cited by Mr Hun Sen’s people as a model.
The irony hardly needs stressing. If Lee
ruled with an iron hand, he also fostered
institutions, competence, probity and
widespread prosperity. Mr Hun Sen, to his
credit, helped bring peace to a countryP HNOM PENH
A strongman plans his succession. Can he control the script?→Alsointhissection
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