48 Asia The Economist April 30th 2022
which the Taliban had brokered, seem to
have gone nowhere. The Taliban’s indul
gence of the ttp is not the only way in
which it is disappointing Pakistan. The Ta
liban’s leadership has followed the exam
ple of Afghanistan’s previous government
in refusing to recognise the international
border. Fencing along bits of the frontier
has been torn down.
A lot of this will seem wearily familiar
to Pakistan’s most grizzled spooks. The
first time the Taliban held power in Af
ghanistan, in the late 1990s, they were
much more reliant than they are now onkeeping up good relations with their
neighbour. Even then, they often fell out.
In one incident they shaved the heads of a
visiting Pakistani football team as punish
ment for wearing shorts. Senior leaders in
Kabul generally want to get on well with
Pakistan. But powerful local commanders
who have lived and fought alongside the
ttpare reluctant to turn on them.
Blowing up villages in Afghanistan may
prompt some ttp militants to pack up
their camps and reinstall them somewhere
out of reach. But it is unlikely to change
many minds among the Taliban, and mayonly harden opinions. “Next time we
might not tolerate it,” warned Mullah Mo
hammad Yaqoob, the acting Afghan de
fence minister.
Pakistan may yet try other ways to bring
the Taliban into line. Afghanistan’s gov
ernment craves international recognition.
Pakistan is unlikely to support this while
the two are at odds. And during some past
disputes Pakistan has held trade hostage
by abruptly shutting border crossings.
Such armtwisting might now haveanef
fect. Or it may only bring into sharperfo
cus the limits of Pakistan’s power.nA
s the sungoes down the numbers
swell on Galle Face Green, a prome
nade facing the Indian Ocean in down
town Colombo where families and lovers
typically come to stroll and fly kites.
These days it hosts a more purposeful
crowd. Families are there, but so are
farmers, students and their professors,
Buddhist monks, Catholic nuns, Mus
lims and members of Sri Lanka’s Tamil
minority. A makeshift settlement has
sprung up. There are teachins at the
“People’s University” and slapstick plays
for children. The capital’s classiest choir
has even led a rousing rendition of “Do
you hear the people sing?”. This is Gota
Go Gama: “Gota Go Village”. “Gota” is
short for Gotabaya. The whole carnival
takes aim at the president, the 72year
old Gotabaya Rajapaksa, and his family:
Go, Gota, just go.
The Rajapaksas are not used to being
treated this way. They have dominated
Sri Lanka’s politics since Gotabaya’s elder
brother, Mahinda Rajapaksa, won a
presidential election in 2005. As defence
secretary, Gotabaya oversaw the armed
forces in a ghastly civil war against Tamil
rebels. Tens of thousands of trapped
civilians were killed in the denouement.
Afterwards, the Rajapaksas wallowed in
triumphalism and settled scores with
critics. Mahinda lost power in a surprise
electoral defeat in 2015 (his government’s
rampant corruption did not help). But his
machinations soon brought on a consti
tutional crisis in which he contested the
prime ministership.
Of all the Rajapaksas, Mahinda,
whose person drips with golden amulets
and other lucky charms and who moves
with the bearing of one of the island’s
kings of old, appeals most to the clan’s
followers among the Sinhalese (and
largely Buddhist) majority. He wouldhave liked to return to the presidency, but
Parliament overturned a constitutional
amendment passed in 2010 that had ended
term limits. So it was Gotabaya who ran in
2019 and won in a landslide.
Gotabaya promised brisk technocratic
government and “vistas of prosperity and
splendour”. Instead, the country got, as
usual, yet more Rajapaksas. Mahinda
came in as prime minister. Another broth
er, Chamal, was put in charge of irrigation.
Soon, after a constitutional amendment to
allow dual nationals into government, yet
another brother, Basil, was finance min
ister (he holds an American passport). The
president’s nephews also got posts. Mil
itary types got many of the rest.
The president, who pushed through a
constitutional amendment strengthening
his executive powers, seemed itching to
run the country as would a drill sergeant.
Instead he and his brothers ran it into the
ground. Their earlier regime had bur
dened Sri Lanka with debt from infrastruc
ture projects, including vanity schemes in
their home district, that have not generat
ed returns. Their current administrationcut taxes when revenues were most
needed. A ban on fertiliser imports, to
conserve dollars, hurt food production.
The currency has plummeted. Foreign
reserves have dwindled. Any deal with
theimf seems a way off. Inflation has
soared. Power cuts are a daily headache,
and there are long queues for petrol, too.
An Indian credit line for fuel has bought
time. But that is going to run out at the
end of April.
And then what? The people on Galle
Face Green are furious over their coun
try’s precipitous fall. Soon, hunger may
loom. Meanwhile, Rajapaksa misman
agement and sleaze have so diminished
Gota’s authority that he has not shown
his face in public in weeks, as barricades
have gone up around the presidential
office. But impeaching a president is far
from easy, and heaven knows Gota wants
to stay. Out of office he is even liable to
prosecution for war crimes.
Basil went early in April, when Gota
replaced his cabinet. Until this week,
Mahinda was adamant that he, too,
would not budge as prime minister. Now,
the president appears willing to do the
budging for him. On April 27th he called
for an allparty government to be formed
once the prime minister and monthold
cabinet had resigned.
It is not clear that opposition parties
will play along. But ejecting Mahinda
could persuade enough of the doubters
in the ruling coalition for the govern
ment to win any noconfidence vote.
Whatever happens, the implications are
profound. The Rajapaksas have always
been as thick as any Sicilian family.
Whatever their differences, they knew
they needed to stand together. But the
crowds on Galle Face Green have had an
effect. From now on, it seems, the Raja
paksas stand separately.As Sri Lankans lament their country’s fall, the Rajapaksas are running out of roadBanyan Unhappy families