53
pean affairs and a member of the Green
Party that is part of the governing co-
alition, argues that embargoes on coal
and oil—alternative sources for which
can be more easily found—should take
effect much sooner than the govern-
ment has planned. As in: the next few
weeks. “The Putin regime earns so
much money selling oil—from two to
four times as much as it does selling
gas,” he says. “So if we are serious about
cutting off the regime from its money
supply, it’s important we act fast.”
For now, Scholz is following the lead
of Germany’s industry, which warns
that an abrupt cutoff would lead to
factory closures and mass unemploy-
ment. On April 22, the Bundes bank,
Germany’s central bank, reported that
an energy embargo now would cause
the German economy to contract 5%
over predictions for 2022, and pro-
voke one of the deepest recessions in
decades. But that amount roughly cor-
responds to the 4.6% that the German
economy shrank in the first year of the
pandemic, which helps explain why
many economists conclude that such
a contraction would be manageable—
especially if the government applies
some of the same tools it did during
that crisis. “There would be a recession
and there might be some scarcity,” says
Veronika Grimm, an economist at the
University of Erlangen-Nüremberg,
who sits on the council of economic ex-
perts advising the Berlin government.
“But it would not be a catastrophe.”
Scholz’s rejection of an immediate
embargo, coupled with his character-
istic reluctance to explain himself, has
left some wondering if the German po-
litical elite remains conficted over how
to handle Moscow. But when pressed
on whether he envisions some kind of
rapprochement with Russia, Scholz
concedes that there is no going back.
While Russia will remain, as he puts it,
“a reality” with which Ukraine will have
to reach an agreement for peace, “there
will never be a special relationship be-
tween Germany and Russia that is not
the European relationship with Russia.”
There is no doubT that under Scholz,
Germany has made a dramatic about-
face. “A few weeks ago, hardly anyone
could have imagined that Germany
would deliver weapons to a war zone at
all; today they should be as heavy and
effective as possible,” says Haider, who
sees the German tendency to think in
absolutes as part of the reason many be-
lieve Scholz isn’t doing enough.
But the other is a communication
problem. “We are not telling the story,”
defense committee chairwoman Strack-
Zimmermann says. “We must explain
what is happening in Ukraine and what
it means to Germans and to Europe. We
must explain to our allies what we are
doing with weapons. And OK, he’s a
quiet guy. But he needs to talk.”
Claudia Major, an analyst at the Ger-
man Institute for International and Se-
curity Affairs, argues that the lack of
communication also impedes Scholz’s
ability to bring about a real Zeiten-
wende at home. “To change the way a
country behaves in security and defense
policy—and this is what was announced
in the speech—takes years,” she says. To
pull it off, “you would need a long-term
implementation plan for constant expla-
nation on why the world has changed,
how it has changed, and what needs to
be done about it.” Without regular and
clear explanation of policies, she adds,
the rest of the world is left wondering
whether Germany can’t do something—
or whether it just doesn’t want to.
And without a narrative, not even
actions might register. “We have made
some progress in the last few days,” law-
maker Hofreiter says on April 25. “But
when I talk to colleagues from other Eu-
ropean countries, they all say, ‘We are
still waiting for Germany.’ ”
Yet if Scholz is a reluctant communi-
cator, he is not a reluctant leader. He re-
mains unperturbed by the tide of criti-
cism rising around him. In part, that is
just the nature of a man who, according
to spokesperson Heiberstreit, lives by
two rules: don’t get hysterical, and don’t
get offended. But it’s also because he be-
lieves that Germans themselves are con-
ficted on the best course of action. “As
a politician, I always have this feeling of
two hearts in your breast,” he says. On
the one hand, people urge him to do ev-
erything he can to stop Russian aggres-
sion. On the other, they want him to do
avoid any escalation —especially with
Putin’s threats of nuclear war.
And because they understand that
there are tough decisions to be made,
they look to those who lead them. “I
trust the people,” Scholz says. “And
I’m sure they trust that we will do the
job of thinking through all the difficult
things.” —With reporting by Simon
ShuSter/Berlin, eloiSe Barry/
london, and leSlie dickStein/
new york □
△
German Chancellor Angela Merkel
welcomes Scholz during a cabinet
meeting on Jan. 9, 2008, in Berlin
ANDREAS RENTZ—GETTY IMAGES
