- The Guardian Saturday 30 April 2022
(^50) World
Helen Davidson
Taipei
A
cross much of the
world people are
taking international
holidays, returning
to the offi ce and
going to festivals
and political rallies. Faced with the
seemingly unstoppable Omicron
variant, they have decided to live as
close to normal lives as they can in
the presence of Covid-19, limiting
its impact. But in zero-Covid China
it is a vastly diff erent story.
An estimated 340 million people
in at least 46 cities are under some
form of lockdown or restrictions as
cases appear in multiple provinces- thus far often in tiny numbers.
On Thursday Guangzhou
authorities grounded hundreds of
fl ights after detecting a suspected
case. In H angzhou residents have
been told to test every 48 hours if
they want to travel around the city.
In Shanghai some residents
are hanging out of their windows
banging pots and pans in nightly
protest at a weeks-long lockdown
beset by food shortages. A
loudspeaker driven through the
streets tells them their protest has
been “incited by foreign forces”,
while drones urge the m to “control
your soul’s desire for freedom”.
In the capital, Beijingers are
stocking up on food in case of a
Shanghai-style lockdown as dozens
of new cases are recorded each day,
prompting lockdowns of residential
buildings, the closure of schools
and suspension of weddings,
funerals and banquets.
On the offi cial evening news
broadcast little of this makes
the cut. Instead the story is of
successes in the battle to regain
zero Covid. More than two years
into the pandemic, China is the last
major government still committed
to the policy, determined that
even the Omicron variant will be
controlled through mass testing,
travel curbs and lockdowns.
China’s offi cials maintain their
approach is the best for people’s
lives and the economy, and they
have no choice but to hold fi rm. The
country’s booster and vaccination
rates, especially among the elderly,
are not high enough and its medical
system is not suffi ciently resourced
or geographically equitable to avoid
catastrophic illness and death.
“We try to run faster than the
virus,” Li Bin , the deputy director
of the National Health Commission,
said yesterday. “No matter how the
virus evolves we always put people
and their lives fi rst.”
Foreign analysts and health
experts agree China cannot open
up yet. They also point to questionsover the effi cacy of its vaccines and
the refusal of the government to
approve foreign-made vaccines.
Even if imported Covid jabs were
off ered in China few would be
likely to trust them after a year of
negative propaganda.
But the analysts also fear China
will not join the world in living
with Covid even when conditions
are better. They say its zero-Covid
policy is so deeply tied to the
political legitimacy of the Chinese
Communist party (CCP) and its
leader, Xi Jinping , that there is no
off ramp. As the impact of the policy
saps morale and the economy’shealth, and with a growing
outbreak in the capital, that
legitimacy may be under threat.
“The CCP’s political legitimacy
of power lies in its ability to provide
livelihood, safety and health. They
have to show their competency,”
said Prof Chi Chunhuei, the director
of Oregon State University’s centre
for global health. “But local leaders
also face a dilemma because they’re
also tasked with improving or
increasing economic growth.”
Zero Covid has undoubtedly
saved lives, but other consequences
of keeping the policy are biting.
Economic analysts are forecasting
continuing slowdowns in growth,
and investors pulled a record
$17.5 b n in stocks and bonds out of
China’s market in March.
Cargo ships and lorries have
been backed up at ports , factories
stalled and warehouses at capacity.
Foreign companies have pulled
out of Shanghai , or reported
major problems in attracting and
retaining talent. Finance workers
and international teachers are
reportedly packing up and leaving.
Online and in Shanghai there is
a signifi cant and public amount of
frustration that police and censors
are struggling to keep up with.
In apparent acknowledgement
of the toll the pandemic was
taking, last month Xi ordered
offi cials to succeed with zeroCovid but “at the least cost and
[to] minimise the impact of the
epidemic on economic and social
development”. This month Xi
called for all-out eff orts to spur
infrastructure spending, pushing
public development in a bid to
drive the economy forward.
There is very little space for
offi cials to question Xi’s Covid
goals, sa id Prof Carl Minzner ,
a China scholar at Fordham
University law school, but
resistance is there.
“There are people in the
bureaucracy who realise the real
cost this is imposing on citizens,”
said Minzner. “But when politics
is in command there isn’t this
space for anything to rise up as
reasoned discourse.”
Dissenting opinions among
the political and medical elite are
occasionally going public but are
quickly scrubbed from the internet,
and years of Xi’s anti-graft purges
have removed or silenced many
political opponents.L
ater this year the CCP
will hold its twice-a-
decade congress, at
which Xi is expected to
seek an unprecedented
third term as leader.
In recent years it has been spoken
of as largely inevitable, but the
timing and impact of China’s worst
outbreak, as well as the Ukraine
war, has upset the stability he
may have hoped would see him
through.
“There is some potential that
a failure of zero Covid, now he’s
taken such clear responsibility for
it, is a challenge to Xi,” sa id Prof
Mary Gallagher , a political scientist
and China expert at the University
of Michigan. “We’re in uncharted
waters in how these transitions
work. Xi is expected to get his third
term, but it’s very unclear to see
how it would actually happen.”
Gallagher sa id the political elite
was the most divided she ha d seen
it since 1989 over not just Covid
but the economy and the Russian
invasion of Ukraine. “We know
there is debate among the elites.
Unfortunately it’s hitting up against
a time period for Xi which makes it
very dangerous to open up.”
A f t e r fi ve weeks Shanghai
offi cials announced yesterday
that more than 12 million people
in districts now deemed low risk
were able to leave their homes, but
residents say there are still issues.
Beijing is reporting dozens of
cases a day but as of yesterday
was only locking down individual
residences and venues. Aside from
panic buying things seem calm as
residents in aff ected districts report
for testing. There is faith in Beijing’s
authorities doing a better job than
Shanghai’s, but still with the usual
arsenal of measures.
“Xi Jinping declared victory over
the virus in 2020, and [pandemic]
success has become emblematic of
his own personal political success,”
sa id Minzner. “Unless Xi himself
decides to back down politically,
I fi nd it diffi cult to imagine
how China retreats from a zero-
Covid policy.”Additional reporting
Xiaoqian Zhu and Chi Hui LinZero Covid China’s pandemic strategy
puts Xi Jinping’s legitimacy to the test
▼ Residents of Guangzhou, in
China’s southern Guangdong
province, queue for Covid-19 tests
PHOTOGRAPH: AFP/GETTY▲ A guard outside offi ces in Beijing,
where case numbers are growingNews
Coronavirus