The Sunday Times - UK (2022-05-01)

4 The Sunday Times May 1, 2022

NEWS

However, Kremlin-backed disinforma-

tion campaigns have long stoked the divi-

sions between those Moldovans who look

towards Europe for their future and

those who support Putin’s world view.

“We have a number of structural

vulnerabilities that have built up over

the years,” Gavrilita, 44, said. “In the gas

sector, in the electricity sector, in terms

of our economic security, with the war,

the unresolved conflict in the Transnis-

trian region. And in the context of the

war, all of these vulnerabilities have

become bigger risks for the Republic

of Moldova.”

The stakes are incredibly high for a

country that was already the poorest in

Europe. Should Russia cut off gas to

Moldova — as it has done to Poland and

Bulgaria — the risk of unrest would rise.

The government has banned public

use of the Z symbol, synonymous with

Russia’s military campaign, along with

events to celebrate the surrender of Nazi

Germany, which Russia marks on May 9.

It may not be enough.

For now, Moldova is protected from

the main body of Russian forces by the

battle-hardened Ukrainian army, which

is increasingly well-supplied.

Yet should Russia confound the pre-

dictions of western defence by taking the

Ukrainian city of Odesa, 30 miles from

Moldova, they would have little military

recourse. The Moldovan army has fewer

than 8,000 active personnel and very

limited heavy weaponry. The Kremlin

could then issue an ultimatum to the gov-

ernment in Chisinau to cede Transnis-

tria, or to step down in favour of a pro-

Russian regime.

“Our government needs to realise that

they shouldn’t be provoking Russia,” said

Alexander, 60, a retired army officer who

was out walking in Chisinau last week.

“They’re too pro-western, the govern-

ment here, like they were in Georgia and

like they were in Ukraine. And you see

what happened.”

@LouiseElisabet

Soviet throwback at breaking

point in Putin’s tug-of-war

Many in the impoverished Russian enclave have no will to fight but fear being dragged into the conflict anyway

RUSSIA

ROMANIA

Black Sea

Sea of Azov

UKRAINE

50 miles

Mariupolol

Dnipro

Zaporizhia

Kherson

Mykolaiv

Tiraspol

Bender

Chisinau

Odesa

MOLDOVA

Donetsk

Luhansk

CRICCRCRIRIMMEAMEMEAEAA

TRANSNISTRIA

Significant fighting

in the past 24 hours

Russian-controlled

Ukrainian territory

before February 24

Russian-controlled

Ukrainian territory

Russian-occupied

Transnistria

Source: Institute for the Study

of War and AEI’s Critical Threats Project. Updated April 29, 3pm

DONBAS

Melitopol

Will a chicken fillet soon be pricier than a filet mignon?

Nando’s

and KFC

have put

up their

prices

30

40

50

60p (per lb, yearly average prices paid)

1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964

Source: National Food Survey/Prof Andrew Godley, University of Reading

The price of poultry plummeted in the mid-1950s, with the average paid

per pound falling from the most expensive meat to the cheapest in one decade

MEAT ON THE CHEAP

Beef and veal

Mutton and lamb

Bacon and ham

Poultry

based food. Customers will

have to be savvy about what

they can afford. They’ll buy a

chicken, they’ll have it for a

roast on a Sunday, but then

they’ll use the giblets and

whatever to make a soup.

Customers will find creative

ways of making food last

longer.”

He said the challenge for

retailers was making sure that

there would be “a UK meat

industry at the end of the

day”. Murrells added: “How

do you make sure that

suppliers are paid so they can

remain and be stable?”

Despite the rises, farmers

and manufacturers say

chicken is still severely

underpriced, with a whole

chicken available for less than

£3 — the price of a latte — in

many supermarkets,

including Asda, Aldi, Lidl and

Tesco. However, big increases

in the cost of chicken feed,

energy bills and wages could

mark an end to cheap

chicken.

Dr Benjamin Coles, an

economic geographer at the

University of Leicester who

has researched the history of

chicken production, said:

“Will chickens become more

expensive than beef? I don’t

think that’s a bad speculation.

“We import a lot of beef so

there is the cost of

transportation. But I can say

that the supply chain for a

chicken is extraordinarily big

and complicated, and it is

dependent on a lot — chicken

feed including soybeans,

which are imported, energy

as well as transport costs.”

Chicken was a luxury meat

in post-war Britain but mass

production in the 1960s saw

prices fall. Andrew Godley, a

professor of business history

Chicken could become as

costly as beef because of the

spiralling cost of bird feed,

according to the chief

executive of Co-op

supermarkets — the first

time that has happened since

the 1950s.

Steve Murrells, a former

senior manager at

Sainsbury’s and Tesco, said:

“Chicken could become as

expensive as beef. The

chicken industry has

particular challenges because

of the feed costs. The

majority of cattle raised in

this country are fed grass and

it is not required to have high-

dense feed. Chicken, which

was incredibly cheap and

great value for money, is

rising quicker than any other

protein.”

While a kilogram of beef is

usually at least three times

the price of chicken, there are

already instances where

pricing is on a par. In Marks &

Spencer, organic free-range

chicken breasts and organic

British beef rump steak are

both £24.15 a kilogram. A

pack of two Tesco Finest beef

rump steaks are £16.67 a

kilogram, while its Finest

corn-fed free range chicken

fillets are £16.50.

Restaurants and takeaways

specialising in chicken such

as Nando’s and KFC have

increased their prices in

recent months. Ten chicken

wings with two sides at

Nando’s rose from £14.95 to

£15.45 last November and to

£16 last month.

The 2 Sisters food group,

the UK’s largest chicken

supplier, said annual food

inflation of 15 per cent “will

be needed to even begin to

cover the increasing cost of

production”.

Between March 2020 and

March this year, the price of

chicken rose by 19 per cent,

according to the Office for

National Statistics (ONS). By

contrast, the cost of beef

mince increased by 3 per cent

while a beef roasting joint

increased by 11 per cent.

According to the National

Farmers’ Union (NFU), the

cost of rearing a chicken has

risen by 50 per cent in the

past year alone.

This is largely due to the

price of chicken feed — the

biggest cost of rearing poultry

— which has increased by half

since 2020.

Chicken feed is often made

up of ingredients such as

soya, a by-product of

sunflower oil called

sunflower meal and wheat.

All of these ingredients have

risen rapidly in recent

months as a result of the war

in Ukraine and poor harvests.

Ukraine accounts for half of

all global sunflower oil trade,

and Russia and Ukraine

produce about a third of the

global supply of wheat.

Murrells, chief executive of

The Co-operative Group, who

was speaking at The Retail &

eCommerce directors’ forum,

said customers might switch

to other meats or vegan

alternatives if the price of

chicken continued to soar.

“You could see a shift into

pasture [animals], you could

see a shift into more plant-

LOUISE

ECCLES

Consumer Affairs Editor

SE

ES

eggs rose from £2.65 to £2.

in March and will increase to

£2.85 from tomorrow.

It apologised to

customers but cited the

increase in grain prices as a

result of the war in

Ukraine. “We know it is a

difficult time for many

people,” it said.

Jen Turnball, 42, and her

husband, a fifth-generation

dairy farmer, took out a

“substantial loan” in 2018 to

diversify into egg farming.

They now have 32,000 free-

range chickens which

produce up to 210,000 eggs a

week, but their business is

making a loss due to rising

feed, wage and energy costs.

She said they took out a

15-year loan to start the

business, secured against the

farm, but are now worried

about the future.

The cost of feeding her

chickens has risen from

£7,000 a week last June to

£9,600. She is also affected by

rising energy costs because

the hen shed uses electricity

to run industrial-sized fans

for ventilation. While the

hens are free-range, they

have had to be kept solely

indoors because of the risk of

bird flu, in accordance with

government guidance, since

last year. They can resume

outdoor life from tomorrow.

Turnball, based in Eden

Valley, in Cumbria, said: “I

would lose less money

shutting the place down and

slaughtering healthy birds

before their time because I

cannot afford to feed them.

The supermarkets are putting

prices up but they’re not

passing it on to the farmer or

the producers so local family

farmers are suffering.”

@Louise_Eccles

Shropshire poultry farmer

who is the chairman of the

NFU’s poultry board, said

energy and feed costs for

farmers were “skyrocketing”.

He said: “Producers are

doing everything they can to

continue to produce quality,

affordable eggs and poultry

meat, which are such staple

products in so many people’s

diets, but this escalating

situation is causing many to

consider their future in the

industry.

“Ultimately, the price of

poultry products must be

sustainable for farmers. We

are in discussion with

retailers about how farm

businesses can remain viable

and resilient to ensure there

are ample amounts of British

poultry on shop shelves.”

Egg farmers are also

struggling with the rising cost

of chicken feed and say that

the prices in supermarkets

are not rising fast enough to

compensate. In March, the

average retail price for a

dozen eggs was £2.47,

according to the ONS.

The British Free Range Egg

Producers Association is

campaigning for an increase

of at least 40p per dozen to be

implemented immediately —

80p per dozen for organic

eggs — and has written to the

eight biggest food retailers to

act before businesses go bust.

A recent survey of its

members found that 51 per

cent of free-range and organic

egg farmers were considering

leaving the industry.

Last week, Riverford

Organic Farmers, a Devon-

based produce delivery

company, wrote to customers

to say it was putting up egg

prices for the second time in

two months. The cost of six

which meant poultry meat

could be produced at scale

and moved across the

country without rotting.

By the 1980s, the rise of

mass-produced chicken

meant that poultry had

become the single most

important source of meat,

with a quarter of the total

share of the market.

Richard Griffiths, chief

executive of the British

Poultry Council, said: “It is no

secret that the cost of

production is increasing,

particularly in chicken feed,

and that cost will have to land

somewhere. Chicken remains

affordable and accessible to

the majority of consumers,

with options to suit every

wallet.”

James Mottershead, a

at Henley Business School,

part of the University of

Reading, has written

extensively about the

“democratisation” of chicken

and its transformation into a

mass-produced meat.

He said: “In 1950, poultry

was a rare luxury in Britain,

only 1 per cent of the total

meat consumption. It was so

special that most families had

roast chicken, not a turkey,

for their Christmas dinner.”

According to the National

Food Survey, poultry was 60p

a kilogram in 1956, while beef

and veal were 42p. By 1962,

poultry had fallen by 16p to

44p a kilogram, while beef

and veal had risen to 47p.

This was partly due to the

arrival of refrigerated

vehicles and better transport,

LP/OLIVIER ARANDEL/MAXPPP; GORAN STANZL/PIXSELL/PA; YORAY LIBERMAN/GETTY IMAGES

Tiraspol, the de facto capital, is

uneasy as Russian, Moldovan and

Transnistrian soldiers stand guard

well-armed ultranationalists from

Ukraine are about to come pouring over

the border to destroy them.

In that environment, some say they

long for the protection of the Russian

army. “It would be better if the Russians

came and helped us,” said Dima, 20. “I’m

worried that the Ukrainians will attack,

there will be a war and I’ll have to fight.”

Despite Russian claims that Moldova is

seeking to join Romania and to force

Transnistrians to stop speaking Russian —

all of which the government in Chisinau

denies — Moldova and Transnistria have

coexisted peacefully since a short war

over the territory ended in 1992. Trade

and travel between the disputed territo-

ries and the rest of Moldova carries on.

Thomas de Waal, senior fellow at Car-

negie Europe, said the Transnistrians

“don’t want to be dragged into the con-

flict”. He added: “They’re always doing

this balancing act. They’ve got one foot

politically and culturally in Russia, and

economically and geographically in

Moldova and the EU.”

Almost all the young people from

Transnistria we spoke to said they’d like

to join Moldova as part of a federation.

Many head to Chisinau or abroad as soon

as they can, leaving behind a deeply

underdeveloped region where the aver-

age monthly wage is about £200.

Rumours that men of fighting age will

be blocked from leaving the territory or

drafted to fight have already driven some

to head to Chisinau or to the villages near

the de facto border. “It’s just in case

something happens,” said one man in his

thirties. “I don’t want to fight.”

There are already about 1,500 Russian

soldiers in Transnistria, some of them

officially peacekeepers. On paper this

might appear to be a serious threat to

western Ukraine and Moldova. But ana-

lysts — and, privately, even Ukrainian offi-

cials — say the forces there are not up to

much. They are not highly trained, elite

forces sent from Moscow. They are

almost all, de Waal said, local residents

with Russian passports. Supporting them

are about 7,000 Transnistrian fighters,

many of whom — like others in the break-

away region — have Moldovan passports.

What Moldovan officials fear more

than an invasion is that provocateurs

could create enormous upheaval within

their borders and undermine the govern-

ment to create a pro-Russian vassal state.

Gavrilita and President Sandu of Mol-

dova, a fellow Harvard alumna, came to

power on a pro-EU, anti-corruption plat-

form, pledging to drag their 3.5 million

people into a more prosperous future

while maintaining neutrality with Russia,

on which they rely for energy supplies.

→Continued from page 1

Invest or

risk tax,

big oil is

warned

The business secretary has

issued an ultimatum to the

big oil and gas companies to

invest billions of pounds in

domestic oil and gas

production or risk being hit

with a windfall tax.

Kwasi Kwarteng has

written a letter urging them

to come forward with a “very

clear plan” to reinvest profits

in the North Sea and “clean

technologies of the future”.

He hopes to head off

political outrage as Shell and

BP prepare to announce their

highest profits for a decade

while households struggle

with soaring energy bills.

Kwarteng said that he

would like to see them “set

out how you will reinvest

profits, double down on

investments in the clean

energy transition and

importantly accelerate and

maximise domestic oil and

gas production”.

He added: “We need to

collectively show the British

people how the success of

our offshore oil and gas

sector has a direct and

enduring benefit to the

British economy and people’s

jobs and livelihoods in order

to protect the North Sea as a

major UK energy asset for

decades to come.”

Although Kwarteng has

publicly opposed a windfall

tax, which he claims would

be a “tax on jobs”, he is

understood to back Rishi

Sunak’s threat to consider

one if companies fail to help

the country produce more of

its own energy. A source close

to the business secretary said

Kwarteng was “more carrot”,

the chancellor “more stick”.

On Friday opposition

parties stepped up calls for a

windfall tax. Ed Miliband, the

shadow energy secretary,

said Sunak was “running out

of excuses”.

Financial results from BP

and Shell this week are

expected to show underlying

profits surging to a combined

£10 billion for the first three

months of the year, twice as

high as a year ago.

However, severing ties

with Moscow and writing

down the value of Russian

assets is expected to have cost

the companies £25 billion.

Oil giants set for bumper

payouts, Business

Caroline Wheeler