The Washington Post - USA (2022-05-02)

MONDAY, MAY 2 , 2022. THE WASHINGTON POST EZ RE A

War in Ukraine

BY ADAM TAYLOR

AND SAMMY WESTFALL

Kherson in southern Ukraine
was the first major city to fall to
Russian forces that swept into
the country in late February.
Within the first days of the inva-
sion, the city was encircled and
large parts were cut off from
water, electricity and access to
food.
It was widely assumed then
that Russia would attempt to
permanently seize control over
Kherson.
It could do so by installing a
Russian-backed government as it
did in Donetsk and Luhansk in
2014, removing local leaders and
placing pro-Russian elites to con-
trol territories ripped from Kyiv’s
control or by annexing the Kher-
son region to neighboring
Crimea, itself annexed by Russia
that same year.
Now, with an Internet and
cellphone blackout in the region
and an attempt to supplant
Ukrainian currency with the Rus-
sian ruble, it appears that Russia
may be attempting to bring such
a plan to fruition, giving it poten-
tially long-lasting control over a
strategically crucial region of the
country.
As Russian officials an-
nounced that the transition to
Russian currency for the Kherson
region would begin May 1, an
intelligence update released by
Britain’s Defense Ministry said
Russia was trying to legitimize
“its control of the city and sur-
rounding areas through install-
ing a pro-Russian administra-
tion.”
Taken together, the moves “are
likely indicative of Russian intent
to exert strong political and eco-
nomic influence in Kherson over
the long term,” Britain’s Defense
Ministry said. Enduring control
over the territory would provide
security for Russia’s grip on
Crimea and allow its forces to

sustain advances in the north and

west, the ministry said.

The Russian activity in Kher-

son follows the “destabilization

playbook” Russia used in the

eastern Donbas region and

Crimea in 2014, Stefan Wolff,

professor of International Secu-

rity at the University of Birming-

ham, told The Washington Post.

That year, a disputed Crimean

referendum showed results that

almost 97 percent of voters sup-

ported incorporation into Russia.

Speaking to Russian state tele-

vision, Kirill Stremousov, de-

scribed by Tass as “deputy head of

the civil-military administration

of the Kherson region,” said there

would be a four-to-five-month

transition away from the Ukrai-

nian currency, the hryvnia, which

has been in use since 1996.

Stremousov, who was installed

by Moscow, said the move was

necessary because “the pension

fund and the treasury left the

territory of the Kherson region”

during the conflict. “We plan to

introduce the ruble zone [to pro-

vide] assistance, first of all, to

pensioners, socially unprotected

segments of the population and,

of course, state employees,”

Stremousov said in an interview

with the Rossiya 24 TV channel.

The Ukrainian government

confirmed, meanwhile, that In-

ternet connections and mobile

phone networks have gone down

in the Kherson region and part of

the Zaporizhzhia region. The

State Service of Special Commu-

nications and Information Pro-

tection of Ukraine said in a state-

ment that it was a deliberate act,

aimed to “leave Ukrainians with-

out access to the true information

on developments in the war

waged by Russia against

Ukraine.”

NetBlocks, a civil society group

that monitors Internet access

worldwide, also confirmed late

Saturday on Twitter that “occu-

pied south Ukraine is now in the

midst of a near-total Internet

blackout.

The next Russian step, if the

past is a guide, could be a con-

trolled referendum designed to

give the appearance of legitimacy

to the Russian takeover.

Indeed, Ukraine’s ombudsman

for human rights, Lyudmila Den-

isova posted in mid-April that

Moscow was printing ballots for a

referendum intended to create a

“Kherson People’s Republic,” an

assertion that could not be veri-

fied by The Washington Post.

Ukrainian President Volod-

ymyr Zelensky on April 21

warned Kherson residents

against sharing information —

including passport information

— with Russian forces. “This is

not to help you.... This is aimed

to falsify the so-called referen-

dum on your land, if an order

comes from Moscow to stage

such a show,” Zelensky said.

The purpose of a referendum

in Kherson would be to preserve

the “veneer of legitimacy” for a

direct annexation of southern

Ukrainian territories or a recog-

nition of their independent state-

hood and potentially incorporat-

ing them into Russia,” said Wolff.

“From that perspective it is very

much a tokenistic exercise.”

Kherson’s mayor, Ihor

Kolykhaiev — whom local au-

thorities say the Russians have

replaced — sketched out a differ-

ent scenario in an interview pub-

lished Thursday in the Ukrainian

news outlet NV.

He said he saw “no signs” that

Russia would hold a referendum

to declare a separate “People’s

Republic of Kherson,” as Moscow

has done in the Luhansk and

Donetsk regions previously.

“What I see: There won’t be a

referendum,” Kolykhaiev was

quoted saying. Instead, he said,

Russia would “most likely” link

the Kherson region to Crimea.

“There’s no sense [for Russia] in

creating another ‘quasi-repub-

lic,’ ” Kolykhaiev said.

Kherson, a city of about

300,000 on the Black Sea, is

strategically important to Russia.

Sitting directly atop the Russian-

annexed Crimean peninsula,

Kherson is a gateway to southern

Ukraine. It is home to key sea and

river ports, and lies on the Dniep-

er River, which helps Russia cut

off Ukrainian forces from the

Black Sea coast.

“The Ukrainian people are

feeling nervous and depressed

right now,” Kherson city council

secretary Halyna Luhova told

The Post on Sunday.

David L. Stern and Andrew Jeong

contributed to this report.

Kherson’s shift to the ruble could signal consolidation of Russian control

NICOLE TUNG FOR THE WASHINGTON POST

Displaced people wait last month to register to receive a id in Kryvyi Rih, Ukraine. The city is n orth of Kherson, which has been in Russian

hands for weeks. Moscow’s n ext step could be a controlled referendum designed to give the appearance of legitimacy to the t akeover.

Move may indicate plan

to gain lasting influence

in the crucial region

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