The Economist - UK (2022-05-07)

28 Britain The Economist May 7th 2022

Post-BrexitBritain

Take back contrôle

T

he dream of many Brexiteers was

plain.Unshackledfromthe“corpse”of

theeu, BritainwouldtearupBrusselsred

tape, take back controlof immigration,

switchitsfocustofast-growingAsianmar-

ketsandchangefromalow-wageintoa

high-wageeconomy.A EuropeanBritain

wouldbereplacedbya globalBritain.Trade

withtheeuwouldcontinuefreelyundera

newtrade deal—indeed,relations might

evenbemoreharmonious.

A littlemorethantwoyearsafterBritain

lefttheclub,freemovementhasendedbut

notmuchelseofthatvisionhascometo

pass.Relationswiththeeuarescratchier

thanever.And yetparadoxicallyBritain

hasinmanywaysbecomemore,notless,

likeitseuneighbours.

Asa member,itwaslessheavilyregu-

latedthanmostotherrichcountries.It had

moreopt-outsfromeupoliciesthanany-

oneelse.Successivegovernmentskeptcor-

poratetaxesandnational-insurancerates

lowerthanmostcompetitors,andspent

lessonhealthcare.WithintheeuBritain

largelyeschewed stateintervention and

subsidies to industry and avoidedhigh

minimumwages.Andformostofthe1990s

and2000s,theBritisheconomygrewfast-

erthanitseurivals.

UnderBorisJohnsontherehasbeenlit-

tleregulatorydivergencefromstandards

setinBrussels,partlybecausefewfirms(or

consumers)wantchangesthatmightraise

evenbiggerobstaclestotradewiththeeu.

CharlesGrant,directoroftheCentrefor

EuropeanReform(cer),a think-tank,re-

callsthatGermanyandFranceseriously

fearedthatpost-BrexitBritainwouldmove

towardsa low-tax,low-regulationversion

of“Singapore-on-Thames”,whichiswhy

theyinsistedonstronglevel-playing-field

conditionsinthetradedeal.Butinpractice

therehasbeenlittlesignofsucha shift.

Indeed,thedirectionoftravelmaybe

quitetheopposite.AsJonathanHill,a for-

merBritisheucommissioner,putsit,Brit-

ainnowlooksmoreliketherestofEurope

in awiderangeofareas, includingtax,

publicspendingandborrowing,statein-

terventionandsubsidies,thanit didinthe

daysofDavidCameron,letaloneofMarga-

ret Thatcher. Mr Johnson clearly likes

spendingpublicmoney.Citingtheexam-

pleofMichaelHeseltine,a Toryminister

fromtheThatchererawhowaskeenona

bigroleforthestate,hehascalledhimself

a “BrexityHezza”(seeBagehot).

Britain’staxburdenissettobeitsheavi-

estsincethelate1940s.Inflatedbythere-

sponsetocovid-19,publicspendingisalso

nearrecordlevels.Employeenational-in-

surancecontributions,a proxyforeuso-

cial-securitycharges,haverisenfrom9%

inthe1990stoover13%.The maincor-

porate-taxratewillgoupfrom19%to25%

nextyear.Publicspendingonhealthcare

hasincreasedfroma littleover8%ofgdp

intheearly2000stonearer12%,abovethe

euaverage.Theminimumwagehasrisen

substantially in recent years. Even British

demography looks more European, as the

fertility rate has plunged to 1.58—only just

above Germany’s.

On climate change, Mr Johnson is a fer-

vent cheerleader for the net-zero target for

carbon emissions, which Britain was the

first European country to enshrine in law.

He claims to be almost as keen on nuclear

power as France. Promises to improve

growth by relaxing tough planning laws

have come to nothing in the face of voter

opposition. Despite Brexit, Britain seems

closer to the European social model than it

was under previous Tory prime ministers.

Mind your backyard

And what of global Britain? Last year’s inte-

grated review of British foreign policy

barely mentioned the eu, focusing instead

on Asia and on helping America against

China. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has

shown that, in foreign and security policy,

Europe still matters most.

Some observers hope that working with

European allies on Ukraine could presage a

mending of fences with the eu. Peter Man-

delson, another former British eucom-

missioner, noted at a recent cerseminar

that Ukraine had shattered the British illu-

sion that it could turn its back on Europe

when it comes to security, though he added

that it would take a new prime minister to

accept this obvious conclusion. Sir Ivan

Rogers, a former British permanent repre-

sentative to the eu, similarly told a recent

eu-ukforum that the Ukraine war was a

“game-changer”, creating a chance to reset

relations with Brussels as well as with na-

tional capitals.

There is clearly scope to expand the

thin trade agreement with the euin areas

like mobility or academic and scientific co-

operation, and to work more closely on for-

eign and security issues. But Anand Me-

non, director of ukin a Changing Europe,

an academic think-tank, thinks relations

cannot be seriously improved so long as

Mr Johnson keeps talking of legislation to

allow him unilaterally to tear up the North-

ern Ireland protocol, which keeps the

province in the single market for goods by

creating a border in the Irish Sea. Hardline

Tory Brexiteers want this to be done soon

after the results of this week’s election to

the Northern Ireland Assembly are known.

That would exemplify another paradox

of post-Brexit Britain. As a member Britain

was renowned for punctiliously observing

all the eu’s rules. Yet Mr Johnson, who was

recently found to have broken domestic

law on covid restrictions, now threatens to

break international law by unilaterally re-

pudiating a treaty he himself signed and

ratified barely two years ago. This would

replicate another unedifying habit ofsome

eu countries: signing up to something

with no intention of implementingit.n

How Boris Johnson’s Britain came to look more like a European Union country

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