The Economist - UK (2022-05-07)

The Economist May 7th 2022 37

United States

Abortion

The draft seen round the world

I

n the 50 years since the Supreme Court

handed down its decision on Roe v Wade,

the right to an abortion has been deemed a

constitutional guarantee in America. As he

drafted a new decision that would overturn

this precedent, Justice Samuel Alito recog­

nised that the verdict would be treated cat­

aclysmically.  “We  do  not  pretend  to  know

how our political system or society will re­

spond to today’s decision overruling Roe,”

he  wrote.  “Even  if  we  could  foresee  what

will happen, we would have no authority to

let that knowledge influence our decision.”

Little  could  he  have  known  that  he—and

the country—would get an unplanned pre­

view of the public reaction.

On May 2nd Justice Alito’s draft opinion

was  published  by  Politico,  an  American

news outlet, more than a month before its

expected release. It was a shocking breach

of the court’s norms of discretion and de­

liberation.  John  Roberts,  the  chief  justice,

confirmed  the  draft’s  authenticity  and

swiftly ordered an investigation.

Such opinions are often revised as jus­

tices trade drafts and dissents. That caveat

has  not  stopped  glee  from  Republicans,

who are close to vindication for a decades­

long  strategy  aimed  at  seizing  control  of

federal courts and overturning Roe, and re­

criminations  from  Democrats.  Chuck

Schumer and Nancy Pelosi, the Democrats’

leaders in Congress, denounced the report­

ed  Supreme  Court  votes  as  an  “abomina­

tion” and accused the Republican­appoint­

ed justices of having “lied to the usSenate,

ripped  up  the  constitution,  and  defiled

both  precedent  and  the  Supreme  Court’s

reputation”. President Joe Biden pointed to

the  political  repercussions.  “If  the  court

does  overturn  Roe,  it  will  fall  on  our  na­

tion’s  elected  officials  at  all  levels  of  gov­

ernment  to  protect  a  woman’s  right  to

choose.  And  it  will  fall  on  voters  to  elect

pro­choice officials this November.”

If Roewere to be definitively cast aside

next month, as had been widely predicted,

women  would  be  confronted  with  a  maze

of abortion rules depending on their home

state.  Republican­dominated  legislatures

in  13  states  have  pre­emptively  passed

complete  bans  on  abortion,  intended  to

come  into  effect  after  the  Supreme  Court

strikes  down  Roe.  Other  states,  including

Georgia  and  Ohio,  have  prepared  some­

what  less  draconian  restrictions,  limiting

abortions  to  pregnancies  shorter  than  six

weeks  (federal  courts  have  until  now

blocked  these  from  going  into  effect).

Women  in  Democrat­run  states,  mean­

while, would experience little change. 

Democrats plainly hope that the shock

of  such  a  decision  would  limit  their  ex­

pected  mid­term  losses.  Sean  Maloney,

who  leads  the  Democratic  Congressional

Campaign Committee, has called abortion

“the central choice in the 2022 election”.

It  is  true  that  overturning  Roeseems

unpopular. Polling from Gallup shows that

only  32%  of  Americans  favoured  striking

down  the  precedent,  compared  with  58%

who  would  have  kept  it.  In  other  ways,

though, public opinion is ambivalent. Ma­

jorities  also  support  restrictions  on  the

procedure, such as waiting periods and re­

quiring ultrasounds to be shown to a wom­

an  considering  an  abortion.  For  decades,

WASHINGTON, DC

How the end of Roe v Wadewill affect American politics

→Alsointhissection

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40 California’snewdemography

41 NewsheriffinNewOrleans

42 Lexington: Evan McMullin v extremism