The Economist - UK (2022-05-07)

TheEconomistMay7th 2022 UnitedStates 39

plenish the army—more if orders from
othercountriestakepriority.Thefactory
couldintheoryturnout6,480Javelinsa
year.Butthisassumesthatitsmakers,a
joint venture by Lockheed Martin and
Raytheon Technologies,receivefirm or­
ders,canfindtheextraworkersand,cru­
cially,components.Onearningscallswith
investorslastmonth thebossesofboth
firmsspokeofsupply­chainconstraints.
TheproductionofStingeranti­aircraft
missilesistighterstill.Theyenteredser­
vicein1981,andAmericaboughtitslast
batchin2003.Theproductionlineclosed
lastyear,butreopenedfora foreigncus­
tomer(thoughttobeTaiwan).Itsmaker,
Raytheon,saysithasonlya limitedstock
ofparts.“Someofthecomponentsareno
longer commercially available,” Raythe­
on’sboss, GregoryHayes,toldinvestors.
“Andsowe’regoingtohavetogooutand
redesignsome oftheelectronics inthe
missileseekerhead, and that’sgoingto
takeusa littlebitoftime.”
TherecentmovetosendUkrainenato­
standardartillerymayrelievepressureon
munitionsstocks(countrieshavelotsof
155mmshells).Butotherpinch­pointswill
appear.Having long dominatedthe air­
spaceofwarzones,Westerncountrieshave
underinvestedinlonger­rangeground­to­
airweaponsofthekindUkrainecraves.
Thisisnotthefirsttimetheyfindthem­
selvesshortofweapons.Intheairwarin
Libyain2011—alimitedcampaign—Britain
andFrancequicklyranshortofprecision­
guidedmunitions(pgms).Americaitself,
at some points during the campaign
againstthejihadistsofIslamicStateinIraq
andSyriain2014­18,wasconsumingmore
pgms thancouldbeproduced.
Precisionweapons,packedwithchips
andsensors,are hard andexpensiveto
make. Planners tendto focus on “plat­
forms”—tanks, ships, planes—and save
moneyonthebombsandmissiles,notes
BradleyMartinoftherandCorporation,a
think­tanksupportedbytheAmericanair
force.“Ariskisbeingassumedbasedona
beliefthat,if a warweretooccur,wewould

beabletorampupproduction,”saysMr

Martin.“That’sa badassumption.”

Arelatedproblemisa tendencytoun­

derestimatehowintenselyarmiesusemu­

nitionsina war.Athirdisthat,afterde­

cadesofpeacetimeprocurement,industry

hasgivenprioritytoefficiency,notresil­

ience.Maintainingsparecapacityiscostly.

Itdoesnothelpthatthedefenceindus­

try,likeothers,hasbeenhitbythecovid

pandemic,tightlabourmarketsandglobal

shortagesofcomputerchips.Arecentre­

portbytheNationalDefenceIndustrialAs­

sociationargues thatAmerica’sdefence­

industrial baseisdeteriorating.Thebig­

gestproblemswereashortageofskilled

workers and spareparts. About 30% of

firmsitquestionedsaidtheywerethesole

supplierofa producttothePentagon.

A battleagainstbottlenecks

KathleenHicks,thedeputydefencesecre­

tary,saysthePentagonistryingto clear

bottlenecksatweeklymeetingswiththe

bossesofdefencefirms.Itishelpingthem

locate alternative suppliers for hard­to­

findpartsor,inthecaseoftheStinger,the

toolswithwhichtomakethem.Inthelon­

gertermthegovernmentistryingtoboost

domesticsemiconductorproduction.

MsHickswarnsagainstfixatingonpar­

ticularweapons.“Wetalkinname­brands.

People walk around the street talking

aboutJavelin,buttherealityisthatwe’re

providing our anti­tank systems,” she

notes.WhatUkraineneedsisnota specific

weapon,buta capability,suchasstopping

armouredvehicles.Thatmightbeprovid­

edbyotherweaponsorallies(Britainand

Sweden,say,whichhavesenttheirjointly

producedNext­generationLightAnti­tank

Weapon).AndAmerica,shesays,isableto

drawdownstocksofJavelinsandStingers

becauseithasothermeanswithwhichto

destroytanksandplanes.

Ideas for improvingdefence produc­

tionabound.Biggerstockpiles,diversify­

ingsuppliers, modularweaponsdesigns

that allow components to be swapped,

commonstandardsamongalliesandjoint

acquisition.Butmuchofthisishard,given

thatprocurementisslowandnationalin­

dustries tendto beprotected.Ms Hicks

saysthePentagonmustgiveindustry“a

strong,enduringmarketsignal”,anassur­

ancethatiftheyhireworkersandexpand

factories“theworkisgoingtobethere”.

ForAmerica,thewarinUkraineisstilla

limitedcommitment.Butifitsindustryis

understrainnow,coulditcopewitha big

war—sayagainstChinaoverTaiwan?“In

worldwartwo,onereasonindustrycould

rapidlymaketheshiftwasbecausewehad

a massiveamountofunusedindustrialca­

pacityaftertheDepression,”saysMrMar­

tin.“Rightnowthearsenalofdemocracyis

notcapableofrespondingtothedemand

oflong­termhigh­intensityconflict.”n

Aiming higher

United States army, cumulative

Javelin missiles procured, ’

Sources:USDepartmentofDefence;MarkCancian,

CentreforStrategicandInternationalStudies

40

30

20

10

0

2215100520001995

Sales & donations

toUkraine

Current stock

Estimated

for training

Ohioprimaries

Hillbilly eligible

M

ason, a suburbnorth of Cincinnati,

does  not  feel  like  a  place  where  the

apocalypse  is  coming  soon.  It  is  a  district

of  detached  houses  and  perfect  landscap­

ing. After voting at a bucolic­looking wed­

ding venue, however, David Myer, a retired

health­care  worker,  says  he  sees  a  much

darker  future.  Thanks  to  Joe  Biden  (“not

the president”), illegal immigrants are be­

ing  invited  en  masse  into  Ohio.  They  are

living  on  welfare  “and  all  of  the  free  stuff

we  give  them”,  and  voting  for  Democrats.

Some are even coming to Mason and beg­

ging  at  traffic  lights.  “We’re  on  the  preci­

pice of social collapse,” he says. 

Mr Myer did not vote for J.D. Vance, the

author and venture capitalist who won the

Republican primary for the Senate on May

3rd. But his talking points could have come

straight out of one of Mr Vance’s speeches.

With his vision of America being looted by

woke corporations, illegal immigrants and

a crooked liberal media, Mr Vance persuad­

ed  32%  of  Republican  voters  to  back  him,

enough to win in the crowded field. 

Mr  Vance  was  helped  by  the  endorse­

ment  of  Donald  Trump.  The  former  presi­

dent  gave  his  blessing  on  April  15th,  tip­

ping  him  into  the  lead.  But  at  his  victory

speech in Cincinnati, Mr Vance only briefly

mentioned Mr Trump, along with other Re­

publicans  who  had  helped  his  campaign,

such as Marjorie Taylor Greene, a conspira­

cy­theorist congresswoman from Georgia. 

Instead, he said that he intends to stand

for “the people who are caught between the

corrupt  political  class  of  the  left  and  the

C INCINNATI, OHIO

J.D. Vance sells Republican voters on

endless culture war

Messenger of the apocalypse