The Economist - UK (2022-05-07)

40 United States The Economist May 7th 2022

right”. “Establishment” Republicans, he

said,haveconnivedtosendAmericanjobs

to China while doing nothing to stop

Americans getting addicted to opiates.

Democrats“activelyencourage” Mexican

cartelstoimportfentanyl,evenastheytell

childrenthereare“42genders”.MrVance

saidbothgroupsoughttobesenttojail.

Whythissortofrhetoricissopersua­

siveamongOhio’sRepublicanvotersisun­

clear.It istruethatopioidaddictionisa ca­

tastropheinthestate.Butillegalimmigra­

tionisnot.Lessthan5%ofOhio’spopula­

tionareforeign­born,one ofthelowest

ratesinthecountry.Andyetitseemsto

haveralliedthemajority ofthosevoters

whoturnedout(allbutoneoftheseven

candidatesespouseda similarcreed).Ev­

eryvoteryourcorrespondentinterviewed

outsidevariouspollingplacesmentioned

illegalimmigrantsastheirprimarycon­

cern,shortlyfollowedbyinflation.

WhatdidnotstopMrVance’svictory

washispreviousincarnation,asa darling

ofliberal publications anda thoughtful

criticofMrTrumpafterhisbook“Hillbilly

Elegy”cameoutin2016.Hisopponents

plastered theairwaves withunfortunate

quotes, including a suggestion that Mr

Trumpmight become“America’sHitler”.

Nomatter.“Hemadea mistakeandhead­

mitsit,”saidRobFyte,anotherpensioner

inMason,aftervotingforMrVance.Hav­

ingbecome famousforamemoirabout

howworking­classpeoplefromtheAppa­

lachiansoftenlookforoutsiderstoblame

fortheirproblems,MrVancehasseamless­

lyswitchedtoarguingthatoutsidersareto

blamefortheirproblems.

Willvotersinthegeneralelectionin

Novemberbeasforgiving?Thewinnerof

theDemocraticprimary,TimRyan,a con­

gressmanfromYoungstown,isalsorun­

ningonChina­bashingpopulism,andmay

havea chance.Butin 2020 Ohiowentfor

MrTrumpbyeightpoints.Mostprobably,

theproudHillbillywillgoontotakehis

apocalypticmessagetoWashington.n

California

America, only less so

W

allace stegner,  a  novelist,  once

called  California  “America...only

more so”. To judge by population estimates

released on May 2nd, the state is still Amer­

ica, but slightly less so. The population fell

to  39.2m  in  the  year  to  January  2022,

400,000  lower  than  in  2020  (see  chart  on

next page). In 1990, the number of Califor­

nians  had  been  rising  by  a  robust  2.5%  a

year.  The  biggest  contribution  to  the  de­

cline came from migration. In 2021, the net

change (people moving out of state minus

those moving in) was twice as large as the

number of covid deaths and four times the

population’s natural change (the excess of

deaths over births). Big cities have been hit

hardest;  the  population  of  Los  Angeles

County has fallen for the past four years. 

Even  if  these  declines  were  no  worse

than  average—and  national  demographic

trends are slowing, too—they might seem

worse in a state where, as its governor once

said, “the future happens here first”. In fact

California’s demography is worse than av­

erage. The state’s total fertility rate (tfr, an

estimate of the number of children women

will bear over their lifetimes) fell from 2.2

in 2006 to 1.5 in 2020, more than in Amer­

ica as a whole, where the fall was from 2.1 to

1.6.  The  tfris  one  of  the  most  important

indicators  of  future  population  trends.

Fertility  has  been  depressed,  in  part,  sug­

gests  the  state  demographer,  Walter

Schwarm,  because  of  the  larger  share  of

foreign  immigrants  now  coming  from

South Korea, Japan and China. East Asians

have brought their low fertility with them. 

As a result, argues Joe Mathews, a writer

and commentator, the state’s demography

is now at odds with Californians’ sense of

their home state as “a place where we can

play in the sun” (to quote the Beach Boys).

Youthfulness,  attractiveness  to  migrants

and diversity: all three are eroding.

California is still young, but less so. The

state’s median age, 37.3, is a year and a half

below the national average but is catching

up,  having  risen  by  two  years  in  2010­20.

The over­65s were 11% of the population in

2010 but will almost double to 19% by 2030.

The state’s 88­year­old very senior senator,

Dianne  Feinstein,  is  representative  of  her

constituents in this respect.

California  is  no  longer  the  migrant

magnet it was. Between 2000 and 2020, it

lost roughly 3m people to other parts of the

country.  In  recent  years  the  decline  has

been  exacerbated  by  the  pandemic  and

border  controls,  both  of  which  have  re­

stricted  foreign  migrants.  In  2000  Texas

was 60% the size of California in terms of

population;  now  it  is  three­quarters,

thanks in part to an influx of Californians. 

Drought,  wildfires  and  relatively  poor

schools all played roles in the exodus, but

dominating everything is the cost of hous­

ing. In 2019 median house prices in Califor­

nia were 184% higher than those in Texas.

Dowell  Myers,  a  demographer  at  the  Uni­

versity of Southern California, argues that

exorbitant housing costs also explain Cali­

fornia’s falling fertility, since couples who

want children go to states where they can

afford a family home—and even its relative

youth,  since  large  numbers  of  older  Cali­

fornians are cashing out and buying big re­

tirement homes elsewhere. 

As a result, California has lost a compo­

nent  of  its  diversity:  the  sense  that  it  is  a

place  where  people  from  all  over  America

come  to  make  good.  Ethnically,  it  has  not

changed  much:  27%  of  Californians  are

foreign­born, the highest share in America

and twice the national rate. It is one of only

two states (with New Mexico) where there

are more Latinos (39%) than whites (37%).

In absolute terms, it has more Asian­Amer­

icans and Pacific Islanders than anywhere,

even Hawaii. And it will become less white

in future because, though whites are two­

LOS ANGELES

The new demography of the Golden State is at odds with the old California Dream

As much of a mix, but less of a magnet