44 The Americas TheEconomistMay7th 2022
cialism—have attempted to make their
way by boat to South Florida. Since October
2021, the usCoast Guard has intercepted
3,519 Haitians, more than in the previous
four years combined.
In this salsa-merengue melting pot
And if more leftists are elected in Latin
America, more conservative types may
vote with their feet. Some Colombians are
nervous about the prospect of a victory for
Gustavo Petro, a former guerrilla, in the
presidential election this month. Capital
flight from Colombia is already evident,
says Paul Angelo at the Council on Foreign
Relations, a thinktank. People fear Mr Pe
tro will turn the country into “another Ven
ezuela”, he says. In March Colombia was
the biggest source of international search
es on MiamiRealtors.com, a property web
site, accounting for around 11% of interna
tional traffic. Members of Colombia’s
armed forces have asked Mr Angelo about
the United States’s asylum process, fearing
that they may become targets for leftwing
guerrilla groups if Mr Petro is elected.
Miami also appeals to younger tech
types. Its startup scene is thriving. Entre
preneurs can find safety and plentiful cap
ital there, so Miami has become a “no
brainer in a postcovid world”, says Shu
Nyatta, who coleads a Latin American
fund at SoftBank, a large technologyin
vestment firm. Today there are around
2,500 fintech companies in Latin America.
That is more than double the number that
existed in the region in 2018, according to
idb. Many Latin American founders are
choosing either to base themselves in Mi
ami or to work there for part of the year.
Members of Latin diasporas in Miami
are increasingly active in regional affairs.
Analysts tend to agree that Latin America is
not a foreignpolicy priority for President
Joe Biden. Eight Latin American countries,
including Brazil and Chile, still do not have
ambassadors from the United States. Chile
has not had one for three years. But Amer
ican politicians pay attention to their vot
ers, and that includes a lot of people with
links to both hemispheres.
After Hurricane Maria hit Puerto Rico in
2017, sending an estimated 50,000 Puerto
Ricans to Florida, Republicans worried
that these migrants would vote for Demo
crats. Perhaps for this reason, Donald
Trump tightened sanctions on Venezuela’s
dictatorial regime and backed the opposi
tion, knowing that this would please the
Venezuelans in South Florida who had fled
from their country.
Venezuelans in the United States were
indeed “galvanised” by Mr Trump’s move,
says Erik Bethel, a former director of the
World Bank who grew up in Miami. They
voted for Mr Trump in droves. Colombian
voters are also growing in importance, says
Annette Taddeo, a Florida state senator
whoisrunningforgovernor.
“Miamiisa citythat’sinformedbyexile
muchmorethanimmigration,”saysAlber
toIbarguen,a formerpublisheroftheMi-
amiHerald. Whereasmostnewimmigrants
trytoassimilate,Miami’sexileshaveoften
hoped to returnto theirhome country.
Thatmaybechanging.AsMiamitiltsfur
thertotheright,LatinAmericaispoisedto
veerfurthertotheleft.n
Going to Miami
United States, Miami-Dade county
population, by heritage, m
Sources: US Census Bureau; Miami-Dade County
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0
1980 90 2000 10 20
Hispanic
Non-Hispanic
Other
Venezuelan
Nicaraguan
Colombian
Cuban
Mexico
Wrecking ball
I
n 2006 felipecalderónwonMexico’s
presidency by 0.6 of a percentage point.
His vanquished rival, Andrés Manuel Ló
pez Obrador, angrily rejected the result,
claiming that the independent electoral
body had rigged the vote count. There was
precious little evidence for this explosive
allegation. Nonetheless, Mr López Obrador
staged his own “inauguration” ceremony
and encouraged nationwide protests.
Fifteen years later and Mr López Obra
dor, now president, still distrusts the elec
toral body, now known as Instituto Na
cional Electoral (ine). In his daily press
conferences he often rails against its staff,
calling them part of a corrupt elite. On
April 28th he unveiled a package of consti
tutional amendments which he says will
end electoral fraud and give Mexico “an au
thentic, a true democracy”.
Under his proposals, which have now
been sent to the lower house of Congress to
debate, the inewould be scrapped and re
placed with a new centralised body. This
body would have a smaller budget and few
er independent experts working for it. Its
most senior people would be elected by
popular vote, instead of by lawmakers.
Similarly, the electoral court would be
subsumed into the Supreme Court. Its
members would also be elected by ordin
ary folk. Public financing for parties would
be cut and electoral propaganda laws,
which regulate how parties can campaign
and include a period before elections in
which campaigning is illegal, would be
loosened. (Mr López Obrador breached
these laws 29 times in 2021 by making com
ments deemed to be campaign messages.)
Mr López Obrador says he wants to save
money. But the budget for the ineis 13.9bn
pesos ($700m) this year, which is equiva
lent to just 0.2% of the overall budget. And
elections cannot safely be run on a shoe
string in a country that in the 1970s and
1980s was racked by electoral fraud. The
ine, which has run elections since 1990,
uses specialist paper and ink to produce
ballot papers that cannot be replicated. It
also oversees the cards used to prove vot
ers’ credentials for around 93m people.
The proposed changes would politicise
the ine and curb its independence. They
would also make it harder for small parties
to compete in elections. If the president
were truly worried about electoral fairness,
he should try harder to stop candidates
from being assassinated in local and state
contests, says Edna Jaime of México Eva
lúa, a thinktank.
The constitutional amendments are
unlikely to pass; that would require a two
thirds majority in both houses and the
support of a majority in the state legisla
tures. But the president can still do dam
age. The ine’s budget has already fallen in
recent years. His verbal swipes are likely to
continue. Such conspiracy theories may
rally his supporters in the runup to the
presidential election in 2024, but they
threaten to undermine confidence in Mex
ican democracy. Still, not everyone be
lieves him. Surveys show thatMexicans
trust the inemore than any otherinstitu
tion, except for the armed forces.n
MEXICO CITY
Andrés Manuel López Obrador takes
on the electoral system
One step at a time