52 Asia The Economist May 7th 2022
M
ahn tun lynnsays he has thought
of little but food since Myanmar’s
armed forces mounted their brutal coup
in February last year. First, from Yangon,
the commercial capital, he used his skills
from years running an importexport
business to get staples to the resistance
groups springing up around the country.
When, late last year, hunger began to
gnaw even at him, he fled the country. He
now shelters in Thailand, by the banks of
a river that marks the two countries’
border. Everyone in his makeshift camp
knows how conflict disrupts the cycle of
sowing seed and harvesting crops. When
bullets fly, ricebowls grow emptier.
And now, says Mr Mahn Tun Lynn,
another war, on the other side of the
Eurasian land mass, has made things
even worse. Since Vladimir Putin in
vaded Ukraine, the prices of food staples
available to Burmese refugees have risen
sharply. The World Food Programme and
other charities that provide aid find their
dollars do not go so far. And the refugees
are among the lucky ones. Before the
coup, some 1m Burmese were in need of
humanitarian aid. Today, according to
the un, the number is over 14m, among
them 5m children.
Even before Mr Putin’s needless war
supplychain disruptions caused by the
pandemic, along with climatechange
related vagaries in the weather, had
forced many Asian and Pacific countries
to think harder about food. Now the risk
is that governments will respond in ways
that will make supplies even scarcer and
prices even higher in the long run.
The direct effects of the war are bad
enough. Ukraine and Russia are both
agricultural powerhouses. Before the war
they generated 12% of the world’s farm
exports, measured by calories. That
included nearly a third of all wheat exports and threequarters of exports of
sunflower oil. Fighting has kept many
Ukrainian farmers from their fields. Com
bined with sanctions, it has disrupted
trade flows, too. Both countries have
restricted food exports to conserve stocks.
Russia’s fertiliser exports have been hit.
All this adds up to a huge shock to global
food markets.
Central Asians are feeling the pain.
Russia’s ban in March on exports of grain
to fellow members of the Eurasian Eco
nomic Union, a club of some former Sovi
et states, has hit Kazakhstan hard. Though
a big wheat producer itself, it normally
imports Russian grain for domestic con
sumption while exporting its own (dearer)
wheat to neighbours. The Russian ban led
Kazakhstan’s flourmillers to warn that,
running out of supplies, they were going
bust. Last month the government urged
the millers to switch to domestic grain,
banning most exports for three months.
Central Asian neighbours, which get
90% of their grain imports from Kazakh
stan, are appalled. Uzbekistan, the re
gion’s most populous country, was planning to import 100,000 tonnes of Kaz
akhstani wheat between April and July.
Turkmenistan has long suffered from
chronic food shortages, which only last
October Kazakhstan’s president, Kassym
Zhomart Tokayev, promised to help end.
Now he risks exacerbating them.
The war is pushing up the prices of all
kinds of foodstuffs, not just grain. In
Indonesia, households have been grum
bling about the cost of cooking oil. Late
last month the government suddenly
halted exports of crude and refined palm
oil, of which Indonesia is the world’s
biggest producer. The stuff is used not
just for frying but also in cakes, cosmet
ics and much more (see Business sec
tion). India, the world’s biggest importer,
is scrambling to find replacements.
In Sri Lanka, food inflation—and
staples such as lentils disappearing from
shop shelves—are a major factor in pop
ular calls for the president, Gotabaya
Rajapaksa, to go. As for nearby Bangla
desh, with a population of 164m, its
foodsecurity predicament is among the
most severe, says the Washingtonbased
International Food Policy Research In
stitute (ifpri): paying more for food and
fertiliser imports will deplete foreign
currency reserves, while leaving less
room for socialsafetynet support.
Both Kazakhstan and Indonesia claim
their moves are temporary. But as ifpri
argues, even shortterm measures can be
contagious, generating higher prices and
further volatility. Hoarding and panic
buying are similarly counterproductive.
And seeking food selfsufficiency, which
some Asian governments are promoting,
is a costly fool’s errand for most food
importing countries. Open markets, and
help for the neediest: these are the best
ways to tackle the hunger that Mr Putin is
inflicting on the world. Unhelpful short-term fixes are not the answer to spiking food pricesBanyan Food fight
Such Herculean ambitions would be
challenging for the most experienced and
popular of leaders. Mr Yoon is neither. In
2016 his role in the impeachment of Park
Geunhye, a disgraced former president,
on corruption charges earned him a pro
motion to chief prosecutor under Moon
Jaein, her successor. In that job Mr Yoon
zealously pursued figures in Mr Moon’s
government, bolstering his own anticor
ruption credentials. But he entered politics
only when he announced his candidacy for
president in June last year.
Mr Yoon has promised a “fair administration that does not allow privileges or
foul play”. The public is sceptical about this
claim, given the various allegations that
tainted him and his family during the un
edifying campaign, not to mention those
flung at his opponent. Despite his frequent
claims to embody the will of the people, he
won the election on March 9th with a mar
gin of only 0.7%, the narrowest in the his
tory of modern Korean democracy. He en
ters office with the highest disapproval rat
ing of any new president.
As if his historic unpopularity and long
todo list did not pose enough of a challenge, Mr Yoon also faces a third impedi
ment: his party does not have a majority in
the National Assembly. Barring a mass de
fection, the Minjoo party, which holds 168
of 300 seats, will control the legislature at
least until elections in 2024. It can block
Mr Yoon’s bills and try to force through its
own. But the presidential veto is a trump
card—the opposition lacks the numbers to
overturn it. The most likely result will be
paralysis. Mr Yoon has said he hopes his
administration willbeable to “overcome
the division of ideologies”. But he will be
encircled by sharks.n