The Economist - UK (2022-05-07)

54 China TheEconomistMay7th 2022

Mr  Campbell  issued  a  warning,  too.  If

any steps were made to establish a Chinese

military  installation  or  permanent  pres­

ence in the Solomons, America would “re­

spond accordingly”, the White House said

after  his  meetings,  without  explaining

what  that  might  entail.  Scott  Morrison,

Australia’s  prime  minister,  added  a  simi­

larly vague threat, saying a Chinese base in

the Solomons would cross “a red line”.

Ports in a storm

As China seeks to protect its worldwide in­

terests  and  challenge  American  military

dominance  in  Asia,  it  can  already  rely  to

some extent on a global network of over 90

ports that are partly or wholly owned or op­

erated by Chinese firms. Those are fine for

refuelling,  replenishing  supplies  and  re­

pairing  ships  in  peacetime.  But  it  also

needs  facilities  in  which  to  station  uni­

formed  personnel  and  store  weapons  and

equipment. In the past three years alone, it

has signed a secret deal to use a Cambodian

navy base, tried to negotiate its own naval

outpost  in  Equatorial  Guinea  and  secretly

begun  building  a  military  facility  inside  a

Chinese­run port in the United Arab Emir­

ates (uae), say American officials. 

China also appears to have adjusted its

tactics,  abandoning  attempts  to  convince

America and its allies that such deals don’t

threaten  their  interests,  and  targeting

countries  of  more  strategic  importance  to

America.  Before  opening  its  base  in  Dji­

bouti, China insisted that it would only be

a “logistics hub” to support Chinese forces

involved  in  unpeacekeeping,  anti­piracy

and  humanitarian  operations.  It  made  no

such effort to sell the Solomons deal. 

One likely explanation is Chinese pique

at the recently unveiled aukuspact, under

which  America  and  Britain  will  help  Aus­

tralia  to  acquire  nuclear  submarines.  It  is

part of a broader joint effort to counter Chi­

na’s  military  ambitions.  In  April  one  of

China’s deputy foreign ministers, Xie Feng,

contrasted  the  Solomons  agreement  with

the “covert operations of certain countries,

which  have  put  together  military  blocs,

stimulated  an  arms  race  and  exacerbated

the risk of nuclear proliferation”.

Another difference about the Solomons

deal  is  the  reference  to  Chinese  forces

quelling local unrest. Chinese proponents

of overseas bases often argue that they are

needed  to  help  protect  Chinese  citizens

abroad,  citing  evacuations  from  Libya  in

2011 and Yemen in 2015. Still, they rarely, if

ever, suggest intervening in the host’s do­

mestic  affairs,  which  would  violate  what

China says is a pillar of its foreign policy.

That  change  no  doubt  reflects  Chinese

authorities’  concern  about  the  roughly

3,000  Chinese  citizens  in  the  Solomons,

who were targeted in rioting in November.

But it also paves the way for Chinese secu­

rity forces—which have already trained lo­

cal police in the Solomons—to intervene in

support  of  Mr  Sogavare  if  violence  erupts

again after an election due next year. Such

a direct Chinese intervention in a democ­

racy  would  be  unprecedented  and  deeply

troubling. The world has plenty of unpop­

ular  leaders  who  would  welcome  Chinese

help to stay in power. 

For all China’s efforts to expand abroad,

the results so far have been mixed. That is

partly  the  result  of  history.  America,  Brit­

ain and a handful of other military powers

have a global network of bases that have ex­

isted for decades and are mostly legacies of

empire, the second world war and the cold

war.  China  has  started  from  scratch,  and

establishing even a small new base abroad

is costly and time­consuming.

China’s challenge in some ways resem­

bles  that  of  the  Soviet  Union,  which  from

the  mid­1960s  began  a  push  to  find  over­

seas bases to give its navy global reach. Ov­

er the next couple of decades it negotiated

access to facilities in some 15 countries, in­

cluding Mauritius, Syria and Vietnam. But

those  agreements  took  many  forms,  with

some allowing full­blown bases and others

only ship repairs. Some fell through.

As with the Soviets, China’s progress is

largely dependent on local strongmen and

vulnerabletosuddenshiftsinthepolitical

landscape.TheSolomonsdealwasdriven

byMrSogavare’sconcernsabouthisown

politicalfuture—andbyhisantipathyto­

wards Australia. Any Chinese military

presencewouldbefiercelyopposedbyma­

nyislanders.Inapolllastyear91%said

theywouldprefertheircountrytobedip­

lomaticallyalignedmorewithliberalde­

mocraciesthanwithChina.

FurtherconstrainingChinaisa recent

push by America andits alliesto draw

more public attention to Chinese base­

huntingandtoco­ordinatetheirdiplomat­

icresponses.Althoughunlikelytoreverse

anyagreements, those effortsmay have

slowedChinadownbyforcinglocallead­

erstodenyplansfora Chinesebase,andby

mobilising domesticorregionalopposi­

tion. Observers say Chinese forces have not

yet been spotted using the Cambodian na­

val  base  and  that  the  uaehas  halted  con­

struction  of  the  alleged  Chinese  military

facility in its port.

China’s deal with the Solomons marks a

step  towards  extending  its  global  military

presence.  For  the  moment,  though,a  sec­

ond overseas base of its ownremains elu­

sive, let alone a global network.n

Equatorial

Guinea Sri

Lanka

Singapore

Angola

Namibia

Tanzania

Kenya

UAE

Pakistan

Myanmar

Thailand

Cambodia

Solomon

Is.

Vanuatu

Indonesia

Djibouti

CHINA

Seychelles

Tajikistan ↑

Source:TheEconomist

Country with a Chinese base

CountriesthatChinahasprobably

consideredtohosta base

Countries that China has probably

approached to host a base

Emigration

Ready to run

L

ate lastmonth  China’s  central  propa­

ganda  department  announced  a  new

campaign: “The Strong Nation’s Rejuvena­

tion Has Me”. The goal of this odd­sound­

ing  effort  is  to  rally  red  spirit  before  the

Communist Party’s 20th congress later this

year,  when  Xi  Jinping  hopes  to  secure  a

third  term  as  party  chief.  But  a  different

kind  of  rejuvenation  is  trending  online,

that  of  “run  philosophy”,  a  coded  way  of

talking about emigration. Instead of using

a  character  that  suggests  running  away

from China, which would antagonise state

censors, netizens have been using one that

sounds  like  the  English  word  “run”,  but

means something different: run(moist).

Most of Shanghai’s 25m residents have

been locked in their homes for more than a

month in order to stem an outbreak of co­

vid­19  in  the  city.  Case  numbers  are  drop­

ping  there,  but  rising  in  Beijing,  the  capi­

tal,  which  is  doing  mass  testing  and  im­

posing targeted lockdowns. Business lead­

ers  worry  about  the  economic  impact  of

China’s  covid  controls.  Many  foreigners

are  leaving—and,  according  to  online

search trends, China’s young and educated

China’s young elite are considering

moving abroad