66 The Economist May 7th 2022
Finance & economics
Quantitativetightening
Braced for impact
C
onsider thelife of a Treasury bill or
bond. Typically once or twice a week, a
batch of fresh Treasuries are born. Their
first home is usually, briefly, an invest
ment bank's dealing desk. Those dealers
might hold on to a few for themselves, but
generally they distribute the bulk to more
permanent owners, like the bond portfoli
os of a mutual fund, a foreign government
or a company or the Federal Reserve. A cer
tain slice will swap hands repeatedly—
some $700bn or so are traded each busi
ness day—but many will stay put for their
lifetimes. Their deaths are predetermined:
they come of age, or “mature”, as little as
one month or as long as 30 years after their
birth, at which point they are settled and
cease to exist.
The Fed is the single largest holder of
Treasuries—its balancesheet is where ma
ny of those securities have found their per
manent home. Thanks to bondbuying
schemes put in place to ease monetary
conditions during the pandemic, the Fed
now holds some $5.8trnworth of Treasur
ies, a quarter of the $23.2trnworth the gov
ernment has issued (see chart on the next
page—it also holds $2.7trnworth of mort
gagebacked securities). On May 4th, how
ever, Jerome Powell, the chairman of the
Fed, said it would start shrinking this giant
portfolio, a process known as “quantitative
tightening” (qt), in June. The reversal
could spark a repeat of the temporary, yet
troubling breakdowns that the world’s
most important financial market has suf
fered in recent years—on a bigger scale.
According to the policy statement re
leased on May 4th, the Fed will reduce its
balancesheet not by actively making
sales, but by letting bonds that have
reached the end of their lives mature with
out buying a new bill or bond to replace
them. By September, if all has gone to plan,
the Fed’s portfolio will be shrinking by
$95bn a month, split between $60bn of
Treasuries and $35bn of mortgagebacked
bonds. At that pace the Fed’s balancesheet
will shrivel by more than $1trn over the
next year. That is “quite the clip”, says Dar
rell Duffie of Stanford University.
There are two reasons why investors
and policymakers are watching qtclosely.
The first is its potentially vast impact on
monetary policy. Estimates of the effect of
bondbuying on the cost of money vary—
but any downward pressure on interest
rates exerted as the Fed bought up Treasur
ies is likely to be reversed as its holdings
start to ebb. Twoyear Treasury yields have
already climbed from 0.8% in January 2022
to 2.7% as investors have come to expect
quicker balancesheet shrinking and faster
rate increases. On May 4th Mr Powell an
nounced a 50basispoint rate rise, the first
increase of that size since 2000, and sig
nalled more would be “on the table at the
next couple of meetings”.
It is also possible that qtwill cause the
Treasury market to malfunction—the sec
ond reason for concern. Its smooth run
ning matters well beyond America: Treasu
ry rates are a crucial benchmark for pricing
virtually all other financial assets globally.
And recent history is not encouraging. A
series of episodes—including the “flash
N EW YORK
The Fed’s balance-sheet is about to shrink fast. Is the giant market for
Treasury bonds ready?
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