TheEconomistMay7th 2022
Graphic detail Abortion in America85Church and choice
S
hockedbyadraftSupremeCourtopin
ion that would allow states to ban abor
tion, American liberals are hunting for sil
ver linings. Some hope that women en
raged by the loss of Roe v Wadewill vote en
masse for Democrats in November.
That would put Republicans in swing
states at risk. However, liberal activists fo
cus solely on the gender gap at their peril:
women are almost as likely as men to op
pose abortion. The most reliable backers of
abortion rights are the 30% of Americans
with no religious affiliation.
Views on abortion have been fairly sta
ble over time. Big majorities favour legal
abortion in cases of rape or health risks.
Since 2002 the share of participants in the
General Social Survey, a large poll, who say
abortion, for any reason, should be legal
has climbed from 40% to 54%. Compared
with the change in support for gay mar
riage, however, this increase looks modest.
Although statelevel polls on abortion
are sparse, public opinion in each state can
be estimated using demographic and geo
graphic patterns in national surveys. This
method shows that just 12 of the 50 states
have majorities that want to ban abortion,
or allow it only if the mother’s life is at risk.
In contrast, 19 states have laws limiting
abortion that would take effect the day Roe
is reversed. They include Arizona, Michi
gan and Wisconsin, where an estimated
60% of people favour abortion rights.
Voters likely to mourn the loss of Roe
can be targeted demographically. The gen
der gap in views on abortion is modest, at
six percentage points. Religion and race, in
contrast, account for up to 65 points.
In a sample of 13,659 people surveyed by
YouGov, a pollster, just 28% of white or old
er Hispanic evangelicals wanted abortion
to be “always” or “mostly” legal. Despite
the Catholic and Orthodox churches’ oppo
sition, 53% of whites and 65% of Hispanics
in these groups favoured abortion rights.
Among agnostics and people who did not
list a religion, the shares were 61% for
those who did not attend college, and 79%
for people who did. Other strong backers
were Jews (76%) and atheists (a hefty 92%).
America’s political coalitions reflect
these cleavages already. However, whites
who are nonevangelical Protestants, or
who are not religiously affiliated and lack
college degrees, favour abortion rights
more than they do Democratic candidates.
Their loyalty may now be up for grabs.nReligion, not gender, is the best
predictor of views on abortion40206080100%02550 75 100%1970 80 90 2000 10 21→ After decades of stability, support for abortion rights has begun to rise→WithoutRoev Wade, muchoftheSouthwouldlackabortionproviders→Religionshapesviewsonabortion,butitsimpactvariesbyraceUnited States, share of respondents that support abortion in cases of:Shareofrespondentswhothinkabortionshouldbe“mostly”or“always”legalDistancetonearestabortionprovider,inscenariowhereRoev Wadeisoverturned
Bycounty,milesSources:YouGov;GeneralSocialSurvey;PewResearchCentre;CaitlynMyers *OrOrthodoxChristianAbortion facilities likely toStates likely to
ban abortionClose Stay openComparedwith support
forsame-sex marriageSupportforabortion
foranyreasonMother’shealthatrisk Rape Risk of birth defect0 100 200 300 400 30EvangelicalProtestant
18-55AtheistHispanicBlackWhiteSelectedgroups
byraceSample500 2,000Catholic* JewishAged5+ Nocollege CollegeMainline
ProtestantNo religious identification