SUNDAY, MAY 8 , 2022. THE WASHINGTON POST EZ RE A
war in ukraineThe Pentagon is reluctant to
publicly rate Ukraine’s chances of
regaining all of its territory.
“We are careful in the way we
talk about progress in the war,
especially when it comes to Ukrai-
nian capabilities and efforts,” a
senior U.S. defense official said.
“We have an obligation to speak to
what we are providing them, but
we never want to provide so much
information that we violate their
operational security or make it
harder for them to conduct their
operations. It’s a balance we strive
to maintain every day.”
As to the administration’s defi-
nition of winning, “I think the
ambiguity is not accidental,” the
European diplomat said. “Some-
times if you’re very specific about
your aims, it makes it easier to
stop those aims.... I always find
myself wanting to defend the
Americans on this, because if I
were the Americans, I’d be more
careful, too, because they’re the
superpower, they’re the ones the
Russians care most about.”
When asked Wednesday about
whether the United States would
be satisfied if Ukraine agreed to
Russia remaining in Crimea and
parts of the east, White House
spokeswoman Jen Psaki repeated
what has become an administra-
tion mantra: “The Ukrainians are
going to define what a successful
outcome looks like for them.”
Besides, Psaki said, Russia has
already lost by not having
achieved its initial goals of taking
over much, if not all, of Ukraine or
dividing NATO.
Another U.S. official put it a
different way. “A lot of people have
read too much into Austin’s com-
ments” this official said, noting
that the United States has from
the start sought “a strategic defeat
for Russia — meaning that Russia
wouldn’t be able to project power
like this again ... to threaten
Ukraine or other neighbors
again.”
At the end of the day, this offi-
cial said, “accountability can
come in many forms. It’s up to
Ukraine to decide the contours of
any peace agreement, but we also
have tools that we put in place in
terms of sanctions, export con-
trols that can be removed or not,
depending on how things look at
the end of this.”Olivier Knox and Cleve R. Wootson Jr.
contributed to this report.crushing remaining opposition
along swaths of the Black Sea
coast.
Miles to the west of the Russian
lines, tens of thousands of Ukrai-
nian troops — up to half of its
126,000 prewar army — face
them. The U.S. military assesses
that Russia’s tactical objective is
to send more of its own forces in
behind the Ukrainians from the
south and from the northeast bor-
der area and encircle them. Across
the flat, farming territory, a mas-
sive ground battle of attrition is
expected to ensue, fought with
long-range artillery and air-
strikes, and armored vehicles.
In response, the United States
and its allies are rushing heavy
artillery, air defense and surveil-
lance equipment, armed drones,
and armored vehicles to the
Ukrainians. Biden has asked Con-
gress for an emergency $33 billion
in weaponry and other support, in
addition to the massive amounts
already sent.
“Russia’s changing objectives
would certainly indicate that all
this effort is having a strong ef-
fect,” a senior administration offi-
cial said. “But as we have laid out
many times, this conflict will like-
ly be long and hard, and the next
few months are critical, so Con-
gress needs to move quickly.”
U.S. and allied staying powerwill be crucial. One of the sustain-
ing challenges, beyond the focus
on the “now” of what Ukraine
needs, is maintaining public unity
and support among and inside the
countries backing Ukraine, an-
other U.S. official said.
“Public support is a key variable
in the outcome on the battlefield”
and “we have to continue to make
a compelling case,” this official
said. “Failure or stalemate equal
discouragement,” while success
on the ground “equals unity.”
As the war continues, especially
if it drags into next winter, some
European governments may face
shortages of heating fuel in addi-
tion to gas and consumer goods.For Biden, facing his own eco-
nomic difficulties, the perception
of Russia as having lost, or at least
losing, could make a difference
during midterm elections in No-
vember — as could the perception
that his administration “lost”
Ukraine.
Some are more optimistic
about Ukraine’s chances for con-
tinued, or even early, progress in
the current phase of the war. Re-
tired Air Force Gen. Philip Breed-
love, a former supreme allied
commander of NATO, said it is too
early to celebrate, but there are
“good signs” that the Russians
may not be able to accomplish
everything they want in the east.Some “very smart people,” he said,
believe that Russia will “culmi-
nate” its next operation within
two to four weeks, effectively run-
ning out of military capability to
press on.
That would open the door to a
larger Ukrainian offensive to take
back land that Russia has seized.
“Then we have the confirma-
tion about what winning looks
like,” Breedlove said. “Other peo-
ple in the world are starting to set
expectations that maybe winning
is actually retaking all of Donbas
and eventually expelling Russia
from Crimea,” he said. “I don’t
know if that’s realistic right now
or not, but it’s certainly out there.”EPA-EFE/SHUTTERSTOCKUkrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky a ddresses a crowd via video in Copenhagen last week to mark the anniversary of Denmark’s liberation in World War II.
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