saturday, may 7 , 2022. the washington post EZ SU D3
BY NEIL GREENBERG
Breaking down the Run for the Roses
Kentucky Derby
No. 1 Mo Donegal
(10-1)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Irad Ortiz Jr.
This son of Uncle Mo has three wins
in five starts, including the Grade II
Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, and
boasts a pedigree well suited for
the classic distance. The only
concern is his running style and
post position. Mo Donegal prefers
to come charging late, and this gate
will force the horse to go out front
early to avoid traffic.No. 2 Happy Jack
(30-1)
Trainer: Doug O'Neill
Jockey: Rafael Bejarano
O’Neill has stepped into the
Kentucky Derby’s winner circle with
I’ll Have Another (2012) and
Nyquist (2016), but Happy Jack
probably won’t help him make it
there for a third time. The son of
Oxbow — who won the Preakness
Stakes and finished second in the
Belmont Stakes in 2013 — hasn’t
won since he broke his maiden at
Santa Anita in January.No. 3 Epicenter
(7-2)
Trainer: Steve Asmussen
Jockey: Joel Rosario
A narrow defeat in the Grade III
Lecomte Stakes, his first race as a
3-year-old, was all but forgotten
after he won his next two races, the
Grade II Risen Star wire-to-wire and
an off-the-pace victory in the
Louisiana Derby. He is one of three
colts in the field who has earned
both a Beyer and a Brisnet speed
figure of 100 or more.No. 4 Summer Is
Tomorrow(30-1)
Trainer: Bhupat Seemar
Jockey: Mickael Barzalona
Summer Is Tomorrow is shipping in
from Dubai after finishing second in
the Grade II UAE Derby. It’s a tough
spot for the Kentucky-bred colt
whose only other wins are under
maiden and allowance conditions.No. 5 Smile Happy
(20-1)
Trainer: Kenny McPeek
Jockey: Corey Lanerie
He couldn’t get it done as the
favorite in his past two races — he
finished second in the Grade II
Risen Star and the Grade II Blue
Grass — but his off-the-pace style
could pay dividends in this year’s
Run for the Roses.No. 6 Messier
(8-1)
Trainer: Tim Yakteen
Jockey: John Velazquez
This son of Empire Maker has never
finished worse than second in his
six career starts, which include four
graded stakes races, and his
103 Beyer speed figure is tied with
Taiba for the highest in the field.
He’s a strong pick to win the race.No. 7 Crown Pride
(20-1)
Trainer: Koichi Shintani
Jockey: Christophe Lemaire
The Japanese-bred winner of the
UAE Derby faces a tough task.
Since 2000, 16 UAE Derby winners
have run in the Kentucky Derby,
and none have hit the board.
Master of Hounds provided the
best finish by a UAE Derby alum,
finishing fifth in 2011.No. 8 Charge It
(20-1)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Luis Saez
Charge It, a son of Tapit, had a heck
of a time in the Grade I Florida
Derby. He hit the starting gate,
angled out four-wide near the
quarter pole, then drifted out
toward the rail twice only to be
angled the other way both times.
Still, he managed to finish second,
a testament to him and his jockey.No. 9 Tiz the Bomb
(30-1)
Trainer: Kenny McPeek
Jockey: Brian Hernandez Jr.
Tiz the Bomb won the Grade III Jeff
Ruby Steaks at Turfway Park by
21 / 4 lengths over stablemate Tawny
Port (11th in Derby points), giving
him wins on three surfaces, having
won twice on turf and once on dirt
earlier in his career. His trainer is
0 for 6 in the Kentucky Derby.No. 10 Zandon
(3-1)
Trainer: Chad Brown
Jockey: Flavien Prat
A come-from-behind victory in the
Grade I Blue Grass Stakes was his
first win in three tries since he
broke his maiden at Belmont Park
in October, but those other losses
aren’t anything to be embarrassed
about. Brown’s colt lost by a nose
to Mo Donegal in the Grade II
Remsen Stakes and finished third
behind Epicenter and Smile Happy
in the Risen Star.No. 11 Pioneer
of Medina(30-1)
Trainer: Todd Pletcher
Jockey: Joe Bravo
Pletcher’s colt finished fourth in the
Grade II Risen Star Stakes and third
in the Grade II Louisiana Derby, but
his only victory vs. winners is
against a low-level collection of
optional claiming horses in
January. He certainly has stepped
up since then, but it doesn’t appear
to be enough against this field.No. 12 Taiba
(12-1)
Trainer: Tim Yakteen
Jockey: Mike Smith
This son of Gun Runner is breaking
all the rules. After winning his debut
by 7^1 / 2 lengths, he took first in the
Grade I Santa Anita Derby in a
stunning performance, beating
stablemate Messier while earning a
triple-digit Beyer speed figure (102).
Now he is trying to become the first
horse to win the Kentucky Derby in
his third career start without having
raced as a 2-year-old.No. 13 Simplification
(20-1)
Trainer: Antonio Sano
Jockey: Jose Ortiz
A win in the Grade II Fountain of
Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park in
March punched his ticket for the
Kentucky Derby, and he held on for
a game third in the Grade I Florida
Derby at that same track in April.
He’s also trying to become the first
Florida-bred horse to win the
Kentucky Derby since Silver Charm
in 1997.No. 14 Barber Road
(30-1)
Trainer: John Ortiz
Jockey: Reylu Gutierrez
Barber Road is the most seasoned
horse in the field with eight starts,
but he hasn’t won since November.
He has, however, finished second
four times in his past five starts
(and third in the other). Perhaps his
experience can make up for a lack
of the same in his connections.
Ortiz, Gutierrez and owner Bill
Simon are making their Kentucky
Derby debuts.No. 15 White Abarrio
(10-1)
Trainer: Saffie Joseph Jr.
Jockey: Tyler Gaffalione
White Abarrio has barely a blemish
on his record. The roan colt won his
first two starts before ending his
2-year-old campaign at Churchill
Downs with a third-place finish in
the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Club
Stakes. He’s back on the winning
track as a 3-year-old, winning the
Grade III Holy Bull Stakes and the
Grade I Florida Derby in his only
starts this year.No. 16 Cyberknife
(20-1)
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Florent Geroux
Cox’s 3-year-old career got off to a
shaky start with a sixth-place finish
in the Grade III Lecomte Stakes. It
took a win in the optional claiming
ranks to get his confidence back
before he stormed the field in the
Grade I Arkansas Derby by
23 / 4 lengths.No. 17 Classic
Causeway(30-1)
Trainer: Brian Lynch
Jockey: Julien Leparoux
A disappointing 11th-place finish in
the Grade I Florida Derby prompted
speculation that this son of Giant’s
Causeway would skip the first leg of
the Triple Crown, but a late change
of heart by his owners got him to
the starting gate. His breeding
suggests the distance of 1^1 / 4 miles
should be no problem.No. 18 Tawny Port
(30-1)
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Ricardo Santana Jr.
Tawny Port earned 40 Derby points
after finishing second in the Grade
III Jeff Ruby Steaks and made sure
he had enough with a win in the
last-chance Lexington Stakes. The
pedigree isn’t an issue, and there is
enough inherited speed and
stamina to last the entire
10 furlongs, but you have to wonder
whether he is good enough to beat
this collection of horses.No. 19 Zozos
(20-1)
Trainer: Brad Cox
Jockey: Manny Franco
One of three colts for Cox in this
race, this son of Munnings (who
won the Woody Stephens Stakes as
a 3-year-old against older horses)
didn’t start his racing career until
this year but won his first two starts
before he finished second in the
Grade II Louisiana Derby.No. 21 Rich Strike
(30-1)
Trainer: Eric Reed
Jockey: Sonny Leon
The only win for this horse, who was
drawn into the field Friday after
Ethereal Road scratched, was in a
maiden claimer, the lowest class of
race, at Churchill Downs last year.
Since then, he has finished no
better than third in five races. Three
of those races were also on an all-
weather surface, not dirt like
Saturday’s race.