http://www.abrbuzz.co.za JANUARY / FEBRUARY 2018 1
The automotive aftermarket is in good shape at the moment, what with close to 12 million vehicles plying the South African roads,
and depressed vehicle sales an indication that people and businesses are postponing vehicle purchases because of low consumer
and business confi dence, thus creating bigger maintenance demand
Planning for the Future
http://www.abrbuzz.co.zaWhilst this issue of aBr is jam packed with information, our monthly contribution cannot do justice to the wealth of information
available on a daily basis, so don’t forget to get your daily fi x on our website. Make sure that you make regular visits toH
owever, 2018 promises a more positive political and economic climate, which will boost consumer and
business confi dence levels, and this will lead to higher vehicle sales. This will not immediately impact
the aftermarket, but a few years of higher car sales will start to reduce maintenance demand in two to
three years’ time. This in itself is not a train smash, but lurking in the shadows is the expected uptick of
electric and hybrid vehicles, and a little bit down the line the introduction of self-driving cars will indeed start having
a signifi cant impact on aftermarket parts sales.Planning for the future will thus require an informed look at the crystal ball, and some detailed research into what the
vehicle parc will look like in ten to fi fteen years’ time. I base this scenario on what I heard at the second Connected
Mobility Conference Shanghai on 30 November 2017, which was held in conjunction with Automechanika Shanghai- The theme of the conference was “Accelerating the Race towards Autonomous Driving”, with the focus on four
aspects which symbolise the main challenges facing the proponents of self-driving vehicles – autonomous driving
technologies, wireless communication, regulatory defi nitions, and connected customers. aBr will be covering this
conference in more depth in our March 2017 issue.
When these obstacles are cleared, the move towards self-learning, and by implication self-driving cars, will
accelerate exponentially. To give you an idea of how fast this will happen, take the prediction of Will Wong, consulting
professional at Frost & Sullivan. Wong assists the world’s top multinational companies to develop market penetration
strategies, and at the conference he predicted that by the year 2025 there will be 53 million self-learning cars on
the world’s roads, compared to the 1,5 million self-learning cars today. And this is just the tip of the iceberg. Wong
predicts that 2025 will be the tipping point, and that by 2030 internal combustion engines will be looked at with a
mixture of amusement and contempt.
Of course, Wong operates in the progressive parts of this planet, and his calculations are based on what is
happening in the fi rst world. For us in the third world, suff ering under the yoke of appalling governance and self-
serving politicians, we will always be behind the curve. But, as sure as night follows day, Africa will be dragged,
kicking and screaming, into the modern era, despite infrastructural challenges. The main reason for this is that
when the manufacturing hubs in the Americas, Europe, and Asia stop producing ICE vehicles, Africa will have no
source for the pollution belchers. It will take maybe a decade or two, but eventually those ten to twenty year old
bangers will fade away.Start planning, folks.THE PHOENIX
The buggy whip was an essential driving accessory in 1905 This will be an essential driving accessory in 2025