132 Ahmet İçduygu
social consequences? As could be anticipated on the basis of modernisation
theory, the f indings from many related studies show that emigration results
in turning the country from a more to a less ‘traditional’ place.
So far, on the economic and social consequences of emigration from Turkey
for the country itself, we can be certain only about the conclusions at a high
level of generality. We can safely conclude that the consequences of emigra-
tion for Turkey fall unequally upon different sectors within the sending
population, and upon different persons and families within these sectors.
We can be certain, too, that, against various criteria of ethics and value, the
consequences of emigration are mixed: neither altogether good nor altogether
bad. Some aspects of this paradoxical picture are attributable to the complex
nature of the migratory process – to diff iculties of measurement, or to the
reliance, because of these diff iculties, on proxy measures of possibly doubtful
suitability. Some are simply attributable to the fact that so little specif ic
research is done. Some may be attributable to inadequate research designs.
Closely related to an evaluation of the consequences of international
migration for Turkey are the ref lections in various studies which explicitly
or implicitly refer to the topic over time. Taking these studies into considera-
tion, one can easily distinguish three periods in which the nature of the
discussion on the issue varies. While the 1960s and 1970s witnessed a lively
discussion on the likely contribution of emigration f lows to the economy
of the country at both the macro and the micro levels, the 1980s and 1990s
were covered by a sluggish debate mostly on the negative social and cultural
consequences of emigration, such as the adaptation problems of the children
of return migrants or the revival of ethnic Kurdish nationalism and religious
fundamentalism among Turkish emigrants in Europe. It was only in the late
1990s and early 2000s that, again, a dynamic debate started to emerge on
the consequences of emigration, but this was still far from being a thorough
evaluation of the issue. Only recently, in 2011, on the occasion of the f iftieth
anniversary of the Labour Recruitment Agreement between Germany and
Turkey, has there been a revival of interest from circles of scholars and
policymakers in the consequences of emigration for the country.^2
If there is any one thing that can thus far be said with certainty about the
research f indings on the consequences of emigration for Turkey, it is that there
are few, if any, generalisations. What is found for one area is frequently counter-
balanced by its opposite for another. If remittances have reduced inequalities
of wealth here, they have increased them there; if economic development
2 See, for instance, the special issue of the journal Perceptions: Journal of International Af fairs
17 (2).