180 Sigrid Faath and hanSpeter Mat teS
5.4.2 Conf lict-induced migration potential
The conf licts described have triggered migratory effects in many different
ways over the last 30 years. Migration that occurred for reasons other than
economic ones was unevenly distributed within the regions of North Africa
and the Middle East, and was restricted to a few countries or political
hotbeds.
- Algeria, where, in the 1990s, during the conf lict with Islamist groups,^24
politically motivated migration primarily to Europe occurred in great
numbers (ca. 400,000 persons) (Mattes 2000); since the 1990s there
has only been a limited migration of younger people due to the lack of
prospects, both in social and in economic terms. - Exactly how many secular or Muslim Egyptians left Egypt because of
the Islamist threat (the most famous example in Europe being the
scientist and publicist Nasr Abu Zaid) is unknown. On the other hand,
some members of the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamist groups
left Egypt during the Mubarak era because of harsh political repression.
The political transformation in Egypt following the mass protests and
the resignation of President Mubarak in February 2011 changed the situa-
tion. The Islamists prof ited from the political liberalisation and won the
parliamentary elections at the end of 2011. As a consequence, Islamist
emigration stopped, while about 93,000 Copts left Egypt immediately
after the fall of Mubarak in 2011 (Khalil 2011). After the deposition of the
Islamist President Mohamed Morsi in July 2013 by the military, and the
escalating violence between security forces and the Muslim Brotherhood,
the repression might lead to some Islamists leaving Egypt. - Sudan, where, during the civil war in South Sudan and since 2003 in
Darfur, widespread refugee migration, both within Sudan and interna-
tionally, was observed. In addition, there was much politically motivated
emigration among the democratic opposition parties following the
takeover by the Islamists in 1989. With the independence of Southern
Sudan in July 2011, some Southern Sudanese migrants in Northern Sudan
returned to the South. As the Arab Spring has not reached Northern
Sudan, the Sudanese refugees in Egypt have not yet returned. - Israel/Palestine/Arab states, i.e., the classic Middle East conf lict, which
especially led to the forced displacement of Palestinians (for the most
24 That military conf licts with Islamist groups escalated in so many Arab states, particularly
at the beginning of the 1990s, is due to the return of the Arab f ighters from Afghanistan after
the fall of the Najibullah regime (Faath & Mattes 1996).