political conFlictS and Migration in the Mena StateS 183
tive and dependable mechanisms have been established to prevent open
conf licts will we have a true perspective for peace (Houben 1996). From the
perspective of realpolitik and in light of the multipolar power structures
in the Middle East, it comes as no surprise when wars erupt, as there is
still no dependable mechanism for preventing conf licts. The political
transformations in some North African and Middle Eastern countries after
the mass protests of 2011 have not yet resulted in the institutionalisation of
democratic systems or the creation of effective mechanisms for preventing
either domestic conf licts or conf licts between states.
The f ight for resources is taking place on two fronts. First, in many cases,
there is a conf lict between countries – particularly regarding water – in the
MENA region,^27 for example, the distribution of water from the Nile River
between the bordering countries. The f ight for oil is transnational insofar
as offshore storage facilities are concerned (unclear sea borders) or when
large underground f ields that lie at or on the borders (e.g., between Iraq and
Kuwait) precipitate different opinions about exploration rights. Second –
and this will, in the future, have the larger conf lict potential – there are
internal conf licts^28 about who has access to the (limited) resources (water,
land, food) of a country. Globally speaking, the amount of farmland per
capita will sink from 0.25 ha (in 2000) to 0.19 ha (by 2025), the decline in
the MENA countries being even more dramatic (Breisinger 2012). Nearly all
MENA states have an acute water def icit, especially of drinking water, which
thus carries great conf lict potential because of the constant degradation of
potable-water resources. The MENA countries consist of about 95 per cent
desert, are exposed to intensive solar radiation and have few freshwater
reserves (Arab Water Council 2009). The yearly rainfall quotas are small,
so that agricultural production is highly dependent on the climate (and
the danger of drought). The already precarious food-supply situation with
a high level of imports (Algeria, Libya, Mauretania, the Gulf countries etc.)
is exacerbated by the continual increase in the population and growing en-
27 The triggers for such conf licts are often (reservoir) dams that stop the f low of water to third
countries. Violating water rights alone can cause severe international conf lict, whereby force
is used or threatened to pressure the other country (or countries) into accepting one’s own
water regulations. Syria’s intention to redirect the tributaries of the Jordan in order to thwart
an Israeli water project led to a major crisis and was one of the triggers of the war in June 1967.
Another example are Turkish dam projects on the Tigris which af fect Iraqi water interests.
28 Conf licts concerning access to ever-scarcer food (such as wheat) are still being settled by
means of price, which puts countries with few currency reserves at a disadvantage. The resulting
famines are then attended to by the UN World Food Programme. For details concerning the
problem of food security, see the website of the World Food Programme (w w w.wfp.org) and of
the United Nations (w w w.un-foodsecurity.org).