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tion pressures by presenting new and better perspectives for the future.
What they cannot guarantee, however, is political stability, which does not
necessarily ensue as a dividend of growing prosperity (see Zorob 2008). The
EU policies concerning the Mediterranean area were criticised for being
inconsistent, on the one hand pushing policies against unwanted migration
and, on the other, contributing to the social and economic development of
the countries bordering the Mediterranean Sea (see Borchardt 2011).
6.2 Uncertainties in security policy
Scenarios concerning matters of security policy are dependent on many
intertwining domestic and international developments, such as changes
to domestic government policy or changes in strategy by external actors,
which follow no calculable logic. Here are some examples of such political
imponderables in the MENA region.
Firstly, one cannot predict with any certainty the future of the fragile
state of Iraq. At least 3 million persons have crossed the borders to countries
near and far – among these also countries in Europe that have been con-
fronted with a number of problems and controversies related to the granting
of preferential asylum to Christians. The even-more-incalculable risks that
developed after the withdrawal of US troops in late 2011 are affecting the
migration situation in the entire Middle East, for which Europe is a close
destination.
The same is true of the destabilisation of Syria; the ramif ications of these
developments for security and migration policies will be treated further
below. Similarly unpredictable is the prospect of achieving a lasting peaceful
solution to the Middle East conf lict, which involves a number of countries in
the region as well as many external actors. Previous peace plans, developed
under the hegemonic auspices of the United States and co-f inanced by the
EU, have failed because of the irreconcilable differences between Israel and
the political representation of the Palestinians, deeply divided about how
to deal with Israel and how to achieve a lasting peace since Hamas won
the elections in the Gaza Strip. Nor are the Israelis united in opting for a
two-state solution. For this reason, there is great scepticism among experts
as to the real chances of achieving a peaceful solution to this major conf lict
affecting the security situation in the entire region.
Some experts view the ‘Islamist threat’ as the largest risk to security
within the MENA region (see Faath & Mattes in this volume). This risk sce-
nario is not calculable, but it would have an immense effect on intraregional