The uncerTainTies involved in calculaTing migraTion 197
regional order, in which a complex web of factors stand against monocausal
explanations.
To summarise the arguments up to now: We have neither serious
prognoses concerning the development of regional conf lict and the re-
percussions on migration nor do we possess any solid prognoses about the
economic and political developments in the three countries in question
- developments which, of course, are dependent on worldwide economic
and political events. Hence even probability calculations are subject to
uncertainty factors. Deducing migration potential mainly from population
developments, as Ralf E. Ulrich does in this volume, or from age-specif ic
migration patterns, as Heinz Fassmann does in this volume, falls short of
explaining the phenomena found in the MENA region where the political
factors causing both domestic and cross-border conf licts are diff icult to
calculate. Or, in other words, things could turn out quite differently to the
way(s) in which the statistical projections suggest. It is certainly the case
that the ‘youth bulge’ in the region is so large that a major portion of the
in-part-well-trained young adults cannot be employed within the local job
market and will thus produce a strong migration pressure.
6.4 The security risks posed by climate change with
subsequent migration
Migration triggered by environmental factors tends to be neglected because
of the diff iculty of precisely def ining this term. But, especially in North
Africa, it is not negligible. The sheer scale of political instability and political
repression, the continual f ight for the distribution of dwindling resources,
the still-high birth-rates, as well as the ecological damage already done – all
of which hit the weakest and poorest of the population the hardest – increase
the pressure to migrate. This pressure can effectively be relieved only by an
increase in overall economic growth – and then only if a better system of
distributing goods and services were implemented that would improve the
living conditions of the majority of the populations and if a development
policy oriented towards sustainability protected the life perspectives of
the rural population. Neither of these prerequisites are currently fulf illed
in either Egypt or Morocco.
The annual report for 2007 issued by the renowned climate, develop-
ment and conf lict researchers of the Scientif ic Commission of the German
Government for Global Environmental Changes, entitled The securit y risk
of climate change, identif ied – especially in North Africa – a security risk