euro-Mediterranean Migration futures 31
study will focus on the cases of Morocco, Egypt and Turkey. What these
countries have in common is their position as the region’s major emigration
countries.
It is of crucial importance to ground our analysis in a sound theoretical
understanding of migration determinants. As a more powerful alterna-
tive to simplistic ‘push-pull’ frameworks, I start by outlining a theoretical
framework combining the concepts of migration systems and migration
transitions, in order to understand the often-counterintuitive linkages
between social and economic development and migration.
Subsequently, I analyse the recent migration histories of Morocco, Egypt
and Turkey and show how they are related to underlying political and
economic factors. It is important to relate current migration patterns to
historical trends by analysing continuities and discontinuities. Recognis-
ing the continuity between current migration paths and those of the past
helps to identify areas of discontinuity and their structural causes. This
will also facilitate our analysis of future migration patterns. Based on this
understanding, the chapter analyses long-term demographic trends and
the evolution of a range of social, economic and political development
indicators. A number of hypotheses will then be developed about possible
trends in the near and more distant future.
1.2 Beyond ‘push-pull’ frameworks: Migration systems and
transitions
Our conceptualisation of migration determinants is of crucial importance
to the outcomes of this analysis. Most analyses of migration determinants
are set within ‘push-pull’ frameworks. This is unfortunate, because the
push-pull framework is generally unable to explain actual migration
patterns. Besides their fundamentally ahistorical nature, push-pull
frameworks are based on a simplistic equilibrium model which assumes
that migrants move from the poorest to the wealthiest societies. Another
assumption of push-pull frameworks is that development will lead to less
migration.
However, this is fundamentally at odds with theoretical and empirical
evidence showing that the relationship between relative levels of social
and economic development and propensities to emigrate is anything but
linear or inversely proportional. This chapter combines the two concepts
of migration systems and migration transitions to provide a more realistic
theoretical framework for understanding actual migration patterns and