euro-Mediterranean Migration futures 61
has been the most spectacular in Morocco, with a reduction from around 7.1
in 1965 (just at the onset of the great guest-worker migration to Europe) to 2.5
at the turn of the century. The decline has been slower in Egypt, with current
fertility levels around 3.0. Medium-variant forecasts by the UNPD suggest
that the long-term trend is towards convergence with European countries.
Figure 1.14 shows how reductions in fertility have resulted in a slowing
down of yearly natural population growth (birth minus death rates, ir-
respective of migration). Again, the decline has been the fastest in Turkey,
with current natural growth at around 1.3 per cent, against 1.5 per cent for
Morocco and 1.9 per cent for Egypt. Although this is still much higher than
the minimal or even negative natural population growth rates in many
Western and Eastern European countries, the times of galloping population
growth in Mediterranean countries are clearly over.
Although there is often an indirect link between demographic and migra-
tion transition, it would be treacherous to suggest that high population
growth is a direct cause of emigration. For instance, high natural popula-
tion growth in the Arab Gulf countries has not coincided with increased
emigration – quite the contrary. In fact, if there is a relationship, it can at
most be an indirect one. Current developing countries have experienced
extra or din arily high peaks in population growth because their demographic
transition is evolving much faster than was the case in Northern Europe
(Kirk 1996). In many countries, this seems to go along with a temporarily
decreased capacity for economic and employment growth to keep up with
galloping population growth.
Figure 1.13 Total fertility (children per woman), 1955–2050
0123456781955-19601960-19651965-19701970-19751975-19801980-19851985-19901990-19951995-20002000-20052005-20102010-20152015-20202020-20252025-20302030-20352035-20402040-20452045-2050Per 1,000 inhabitantsMorocco
Egypt
Turkey
Spain
GermanySource: UNPD, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision (medium variant)