Migration from the Middle East and North Africa to Europe Past Developments, Current Status, and Future Potentials (Amsterdam..

62 Hein de Haas

These factors might explain why international outmigration persists in
relatively advanced stages of the demographic transition, as we have perhaps
seen in countries like Turkey and Morocco. Furthermore, the growth of the
working-age population seems to be a more essential factor than fertility
or gross population growth. The pressure on the Moroccan and Egyptian
labour markets – unlike in Turkey – is not expected to decrease signif icantly
in the short term. However, Morocco has almost reached the point where the
dramatic reductions in fertility since 1972 will begin to entail the reduction
of the number of people attaining working age in 2010, and will reach full
momentum in the period 2015-2020 (Courbage 1996; Fargues 2004). The next
generation entering the labour market will theoretically face less competi-
tion and also bear an exceptionally light demographic burden compared
to past and future generations (Fargues 2004).
This delayed, positive effect of past declines in fertility is clearly visible in
Figure 1.15. Dependency ratios in Turkey, Morocco and Egypt reached a peak
around the 1970s, after which they started to decline with fertility rates. In
the next few decades, dependency levels will further decline while population
ageing in European countries will result in the exactly opposite trend of
dramatic increases in dependency levels. Population ageing will start to affect
our case-study countries only from 2040 onwards. Until then, these countries
will be offered a unique demographic window of opportunity of exceptionally
low dependency ratios and decreasing new entries into the labour market.
This positive, delayed effect of fertility decline on the rate of domestic
(labour-market) absorption may eventually contribute to declining inter-

Figure 1.14 Natural population increase, 1955–2050

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1955-19601960-19651965-19701970-19751975-19801980-19851985-19901990-19951995-20002000-20052005-20102010-20152015-20202020-20252025-20302030-20352035-20402040-20452045-2050

Per 1,000 inhabitants

Morocco

Egypt

Turkey

Spain

Germany

Source: UNPD, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision (medium variant)