euro-Mediterranean Migration futures 63
national migration, as transitional-migration models predict. However, we
need to stress that this is an indirect relationship. Whether, to what extent
and when this will really happen crucially depends on other factors such as
economic growth, job creation, education, political stability, freedom and
trust in government institutions.
1.5.3 Income and quality of life
Turkey, Morocco and Egypt have achieved remarkable improvements in
human development, as testif ied, for instance, by considerable increases in
life expectancy to about 70 years nowadays and by the fact that gaps with
European countries consistently narrowed between 1955 and 2005 (see
Figure 1.16). All three countries are classif ied as middle-income countries,
although Turkey is considerably wealthier than the other two. Between 1970
and 2006, Egyptian and Moroccan per capita gross domestic product (GDP)
was 38 per cent and 52 per cent of Turkish per capita GDP, respectively, as
shown in Figure 1.17. In recent years, per capita GDP growth in Turkey has
greatly accelerated, doubling from US$2,626 in 2002 to US$5,307 in 2006.
This has widened the gap with Morocco and, particularly, Egypt, where per
capita GDP was only 28 per cent of Turkey’s in 2006.
More relevant for the analysis of migration from the Southern and East-
ern Mediterranean to EU countries is the comparison between countries
of GDP per capita corrected for PPP. The data depicted in Figure 1.18 show
Figure 1.15 Dependency ratio, 1955–2050
02040608010012019551960196519701975198019851990199520002005201020152020202520302035204020452050Dependency ratioMorocco
Egypt
Turkey
Spain
GermanyNote: The total dependency ratio is the ratio of the sum of the population aged 0–14 and that aged 65+
to the population aged 15–64.
Source: UNPD, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision (medium variant)