euro-Mediterranean Migration futures 67
been slower, and more erratic and uncertain in Egypt. Morocco remained
invariably authoritarian as the king enacted constitutional reform although
his cling to a central position of power has remained largely unaffected. It
is very diff icult to predict future developments, but the coming-of-age of a
new, well-educated and aspiring generation is likely to generate continuous
pressure for reform.
1.6 Conclusion
The recent migration histories of Morocco, Egypt and Turkey illustrate the
diversity of country- and region-specif ic migration patterns on the one
hand but, on the other, also reveal certain regularities. In particular, the
comparison between Morocco and Turkey is instructive. Both countries
have followed quite similar trajectories as the main origin countries of the
guest workers moving to North-Western Europe in the 1960s and 1970s,
followed by a phase of large-scale family reunif ication. This led to the
establishment and permanent settlement of the largest immigrant groups
from outside the EU. Since the early 1990s, Morocco’s and Turkey’s paths
have clearly diverged. While Turkish family migration to Europe gradually
decreased and the country witnessed more and more immigration, Morocco
experienced a second, new wave of primary-labour emigration to Italy
and, particularly, Spain, while emigration to North-Western Europe has
also remained relatively high in comparison with Turkish migration. This
can, at least partly, be explained by the fact that income differentials have
remained relatively high despite recent economic growth in Morocco and
that political and other freedom has remained relatively low.
Although family formation is still fuelling substantial Turkish migration
to North-Western Europe, very few Turks have migrated to Southern Europe
recently. In fact, due to increasing return migration and immigration from
CIS countries, Asia and Europe, Turkey has entered the third phase of its
migration transition by passing the in-out migration break-even point,
thereby becoming a country of net immigration. This can be explained not
only by the extraordinarily high levels of economic growth in the recent past,
but also by the many structural institutional reforms and macro-economic
stabilisation which recent Turkish governments have established. This has
created a more general climate of optimism and hope for the future, which
seems to be increasingly luring Turkish migrants back from Europe to Turkey.
Egypt’s migration story is entirely different. While it is the poorest and
apparently least stable country in our three case-studies, Egyptians did not