The chances of dying on
your shared birthday
Famous people who died on
their birthdays include actress
Ingrid Bergman (29 August) and
longitude-solving clockmaker
John Harrison (24 March). But if
deaths are evenly distributed
through the year, the chance of
dying on your birthday is around
0.274 per cent, so we shouldn’t
be surprised when it happens to a
few famous people.A recent study in Switzerland
suggested that we are slightly
more likely to die on our
birthdays, whether because we
hold out for another round of
presents, or because something
about the celebration tips us
over the edge: too much
alcohol, disappointment at
getting yet more socks, or
the effort of blowing out all
those candles.
However, Spiegelhalter is
sceptical. Not only is the effect
in the Swiss study small, but
there’s no dip in the expected
number of deaths before or after
the big day. “What if someone’s
death day is missing when
someone comes to fill in the
records? The easiest thing is just
to copy over the birth date,”
he says.So birthdays may not be
dangerous after all. What about
dying the same day as your
spouse? In 2013, Californian
couple Helen and Les Brown
died one day apart, after 75 years
of marriage. Not only were they
both born on the same day, they
eloped on 19 September 1937- Huntrodds’ Day!
But are you more likely to
die soon after your partner, or
do we only notice these stories
because they are so tragic or
romantic? The risk of sudden
death by heart attack is 16
times higher the day after
losing a spouse, giving rise to
the name Broken Heart
Syndrome for sudden cardiac
paralysis caused by a surge of
adrenaline from extreme
emotion. What’s more, for a
month after being widowed,
the risk of heart attack or stroke
is doubled.
So you are more likely to die
soon after your spouse. Let’s
hope the Huntrodds went out
together, not from heart trouble
but an excess of wild partying
with their 12 children.What made you think of Huntrodds’ Day?
I was on holiday in Whitby, went to the church up by the Abbey, and
saw this fantastic monument to Mr and Mrs Huntrodds. They were
both born on the same day, got married on their 20th birthday, had 12
children and then sadly died on their 80th birthday. We don’t know
anything more about their story. Maybe they were having a whale of
an 80th birthday party and the floor collapsed or maybe they both
died of food poisoning from their birthday cake.
What can we learn from the happy story of the Huntrodds?
The Huntrodds is a very extreme example. You could say that them
marrying on their birthday was not a coincidence, they must have
chosen when to get married. But very unlikely things happen all the
time, because there’s so many opportunities for them to happen. So
whenever something bizarre occurs you just have to think - well, okay,
how many opportunities were there for such an event to happen?
So what’s the difference between the chance of such an
event happening, and the chance of it happening to you?
Ah, yes, well that’s the crucial thing. Any of these rare events
- for the person they happen to, it’s obviously quite extraordinary.
Why have a national celebration of coincidence?
I study risk, and people associate risk with bad things that might
happen. But chance is the other word for risk that reflects the upside,
that good things happen. Obviously winning the lottery is an upside of
risk, but you’ve got to take a chance and buy a ticket.
Do coincidences happen to some people more
often than others?
They never happen to me. I’m the boring
one, I never have coincidences. I don’t
notice what’s going on around me, and I
don’t talk to many people, so I rarely find
out anything surprising at all. Say, for
instance, somebody was in Rome
on holiday and started talking to
the woman opposite. They find
out that they both have a son
who works in the same company,
so one of them phones up their son
and he says ‘oh yes, he’s sitting
right opposite me at the moment’.
That’s a lovely coincidence, but it
would never happen to me, because
I wouldn’t talk to anybody over
breakfast. Serendipity - spontaneous,
nice things - happen to those who are
ready and aware.16 x
higher is the increased level of risk of dying from a heart
attack the day after losing a spouse
SIR DAVID
SPIEGELHALTER
TIMANDRA HARKNESS is a presenter
on BBC Worldwide’s YouTube channel
Head SqueezeWinton Professor of the Public
Understanding of Risk, University
of CambridgeIt could be you... if you’re
willing to take a little riskThere’s a good reason you’re more
likely to die the day after your spouse