64 TIME May 23/May 30, 2022
not a member of the PT, and I have hard
criticism about a lot of matters related
to Lula. But those criticisms are in the
political field, not about human rights,”
he says. “I would like to oppose a le-
gitimate leader; I can’t stand doing it
against a murderer any longer.”
In a country where per capita GDP
has been cut almost in half since 2014,
even elites, many of whom supported
Bolsonaro in 2018, have warmed to the
idea that Lula may be better for busi-
ness. “I am the only candidate with
whom people should not be concerned
about [economic policy],” Lula says.
“Because I’ve been a President twice al-
ready. We don’t discuss economic poli-
cies before winning the elections. First,
you have to win the elections.” That will
come as a surprise to many, since the
economy has usually been at the center
of Brazil’s presidential campaigns. But
Lula doubles down, citing stats from
Brazil’s 2000s boom. “You have to un-
derstand that instead of asking what I
will do, just look at what I’ve done.”
If he wins, though, Lula would in-
herit a darker economic outlook than he
did in 2003. “It’s hard to quantify how
much of the economic success of Lula’s
first administration was due to the in-
credible conditions that he was fortu-
nate to have,” says Gustavo Ribeiro, a
political analyst. “It’s going to be a much
more daunting task ahead of him.”
That is perhaps most evident in the
issue of oil. During the PT’s rule, off-
shore discoveries by Petro bras bolstered
state budgets and kept fuel prices low in
Brazil. Today the global oil price is surg-
ing, driving inflation in Brazil, while ef-
forts to fight the climate crisis have cast
a shadow over the future of the oil sec-
tor, which makes up 11.5% of Brazil’s ex-
ports. In Colombia, Gustavo Petro, the
left-wing front runner in its upcoming
election, has pledged an immediate halt
to oil exploration in his country—in line
with recommendations of the Interna-
tional Energy Agency. He expressed
hope that Lula and other progressive
allies would join him in an anti-oil bloc.
Lula’s response will disappoint envi-
ronmentalists. “Look, Petro has the right
to propose whatever he wants. But in the
case of Brazil, this is not for real,” he says.
“In the case of the world, it’s not for real.”
Might he stop exploration for new oil
deposits while extracting the oil Brazil
has already located? “No, as long as you
don’t have alternative energy, you will
continue to use the energy that you have.”
Though Lula says his administra-
tion would scale up Brazil’s production
of clean energy, he has also pledged to
invest in new oil- refinery infrastructure
in an effort to decouple Brazil’s oil from
the global market. He frames it as a sov-
ereignty issue. “Think of our dear Ger-
many: Angela Merkel decided to close
all the nuclear power plants. She did not
count on the war in Ukraine. And today,
Europe depends on Russia for energy.”
Lula’s views on foreign policy put
him against the prevailing wind today.
As President, he refused to take a side
in the West’s arguments with its rivals,
and prided himself on speaking with
Venezuela’s Hugo Chávez or Iran’s Mah-
moud Ahmadinejad the same week as
George W. Bush or Barack Obama. He
says he was “very concerned” when the
U.S. and many Latin American coun-
tries recognized Juan Guaidó, Venezu-
ela’s leftist opposition leader, as Presi-
dent in 2019, in a bid to force Nicolás
Maduro, Chávez’s authoritarian succes-
sor, from power. Even today, after Ven-
ezuela’s collapse into kleptocracy, Lula
refuses to call Maduro a dictator.
Lula remains a die-hard believer that
“two elected heads of state, sitting at a
table, looking each other in the eye,”
can resolve any differences. He claims
that President Joe Biden and E.U. lead-
ers failed to do that enough in the run-
up to Russia’s invasion of its neighbor
in February. “The United States has a
lot of political clout. And Biden could
have avoided [the war], not incited it,”
he says. “He could have participated
more. Biden could have taken a plane to
Moscow to talk to Putin. This is the kind
of attitude you expect from a leader.”
Most Western analysts argue that
Vladimir Putin’s invasion was fueledby an imperialistic desire to seize terri-
tory, rather than any provocations from
Ukraine. But in Lula’s view, even Ukrai-
nian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who
faced a months-long buildup of troops at
his borders before the outbreak of war in
February, shares blame. “I see the Presi-
dent of Ukraine, speaking on television,
being applauded, getting a standing ova-
tion by all the [European] parliamentar-
ians,” he says, shaking his head angrily.
“This guy is as responsible as Putin for
the war. Because in the war, there’s not
just one person guilty.” He argues that
it is irresponsible for Western leaders
to celebrate Zelensky rather than focus-
ing on closed-door negotiations. “You
are encouraging this guy, and then he
thinks he is the cherry on your cake. We
should be having a serious conversation.
OK, you were a nice comedian. But let us
not make war for you to show up on TV.”
The U.S. and the E.U. should have as-
sured Putin that Ukraine would not join
NATO, Lula says, drawing a comparison
with the 1962 Cuban missile crisis, when
the U.S. and Russia agreed to remove
missile deployments from each other’s
backyards. Western sanctions on Russia
have unfairly impacted other regions’
economies, he adds. “War is no solu-
tion,” he says. “And now we are going
to have to foot the bill because of the
war on Ukraine. Argentina, Bolivia will
also have to pay. You’re not punishing
Putin. You’re punishing many different
countries, you’re punishing mankind.”
The conflict underscores the need to
renew global institutions, he says. “To-
day’s United Nations doesn’t represent
anything anymore. Governments don’t
take the U.N. seriously today, because
they make decisions without respecting
it,” Lula says. “We need to create a new
global governance.” However difficult
that may be in today’s fractured world,
many leaders and diplomats would wel-
come Lula’s return: over the past four
years, Bolsonaro has burned count-
less bridges, angering China with rac-
ist jokes about COVID-19 and mocking
E.U. leaders. “Brazil will again become a
protagonist on the international stage,”
Lula pledges, “and we will prove that it’s
possible to have a better world.”IF LULA’S STANCE on Ukraine, or his
refusal to acknowledge any corruption-WORLD
‘Instead of
asking what I
will do,
just look at
what I’ve done.’