The Economist - USA (2022-05-14)

TheEconomistMay14th 2022 Asia 35

CrisisinSriLanka

Themorningafter

F

ormorethana monththeanti­govern­

ment protesters camped along Galle

Face,theseafrontintheSriLankancapital

ofColombo, had been mostly peaceful.

Theyweredemandingthedepartureofthe

president, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, and the

prime minister,Mahinda Rajapaksa, his

brother.Thereweretents,stagesforpoliti­

calplays,andsinging.“GohomeGota!”

theirsignsread,usingthenamebywhich

thepresidentiscommonlyknown.Hedid

notbudge.Neitherdidtheprotesters.

AllthatchangedonMay9thwhenhun­

dredsofgovernmentsupportersdescend­

edonthecampatGalle Faceandother

protestsitesinthecity.Unmolestedbypo­

lice,theyattackedthedemonstratorsand

burntdowntheirtents.Manyhad come

straightfroma meetingattheresidenceof

theprimeminister,whohadhostedthem

ina bidtoclingtohisjob.Asanti­govern­

mentprotesterscounter­attackedandthe

violencebegantospiraloutofcontrol,the

primeministeratlastheededcallstore­

sign,intheprocesstriggeringthedissolu­

tionofhiscabinet.

Intheory,thatshouldpavethewayfora

newgovernmentofnationalunityledbya

prime minister who enjoys cross­party

support,andmadeupofrepresentativesof

all the main parties andperhaps some

technocrats.Butunityisthelastthingon

themindsofmanySriLankans,whoare

enragedtofindthemselvesdemotedfrom

relatively well­off by South Asian stan­

dardstobeggingforhandoutsfromIndia.

Theprotestersrespondedtotheattackson

thembyburningdownthehomesofmany

cabinetministersanda museumdedicat­

edtotheRajapaksas.Thebusesthathad

carried government supporters into Co­

lombowerealsosetablaze.A minister’scar

wasdumpedina lake.

Hundredsofpeoplewereinjuredasthe

violencecontinuedintothenextday.Sev­

eraldied,includingamemberofparlia­

mentwhoshotandkilleda protesterasa

crowdsurroundedhiscar,accordingtopo­

licereports.Mahindaandhisfamilywere

airliftedtosafetybysecurityforcesonMay

10thafteranangrymob surroundedhis

residence. Troops were deployed across

thecountryandorderedtoshootonsight

anyoneseendamagingpropertyorattack­

ingpeople.Thefollowingafternoon,po­

lice toldprotestersattheGalle Faceen­

campmenttocleartheareatocomplywith

anisland­widecurfew,thoughtheydidnot

immediatelyenforcetheorder.Thegover­

norofthecentralbanksaidhewouldre­

signunlesspoliticalstabilitywasrestored.

Perhapsit wasthisthreatthatcuredthe

presidentofthetemptationtorulebyde­

cree,ashewouldhavebeenentitledtodo

followingthedissolutionofthecabinet.

LateonMay11thMrRajapaksaaddressed

thenation,promisingto appoint anew

government.Heappearedtoagreetomost

oftheconditionsoutlinedbytheopposi­

tion,includinga reductioninthepowers

ofthepresidency,whichhehadboostedby

amendingtheconstitutionin2020.

All­partytalkstochooseministersfor

aninterimcabinetwereunderwayasThe

Economistwenttopress.RanilWickreme­

singhe,a veteranlawmaker,lookedsetto

besworninasinterimprimeminister.But

hisputativegovernmentfacesobstacles,

notleastthefact thatmanymps donot

wanttosabotagetheircareersbyassociat­

ing themselves withMr Rajapaksa. The

president’srefusaltostepdownmaydam­

agethecredibilityofanyinterimgovern­

mentfromthestart.A wayforwardwillre­

quirebalancingthenecessarypoliticalsta­

bilitywithenoughaccountabilitytocom­

mandpublicsupport.

Thatisparticularlyimportantgiventhe

dauntingtaskfacinganynewgovernment.

SriLankamustimplementa seriesofpain­

fuleconomicreforms—atallorderinsuch

a febrileatmosphere. A combination of

badpolicyandexternalshocks,notablya

collapseoftourismduringthepandemic

andspikingcommoditypricesfollowing

Russia’sinvasionofUkraine,havedeplet­

ed Sri Lanka’s foreign­currency reserves

andraisedconsumer­priceinflationtoal­

most30%year­on­yearinApril,from19%

in March (see chart). For nearly two

months,SriLankanshavehadtolivewith

longpowercuts,soaringpricesforstaples

suchasrice, andshortagesofessentialsas

petrol—largely afunctionofthelack of

currencywithwhichtopayforimports.

Thegovernment’sforeignreservesare

down to $50m—nothing, in effect. It

burned through all its cash in recent

monthsina doomedefforttopropupthe

currencyandserviceitsforeigndebts.On

April12thitconcededdefeatandsaidit

wouldstoppayinginterest,seeka bail­out

fromtheimfandaskcreditors,including

ChinaandIndia,torestructuretheirloans.

Sincethenthegovernmenthasreliedon

temporary credit, mostlyfromIndia, to

importessentialssuchasfoodandfuel.

Evenifthepoliticalclassgetsitsactto­

gether, turning Sri Lanka’s economy

aroundisgettingharderbytheday.n

C OLOMBO

SriLankahasnomoneyandno

government.Whatnow?

Still climbing

Sri Lanka, consumer prices

% increase on a year earlier

Source: Refinitiv Datastream

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

2019 20 21 22

Party’s over

Australianpolitics

For whom the

teals poll

A

ustralians disagreeon much when

it  comes  to  politics.  Left­leaning  par­

ties  hold  sway  in  cities  and  conservatives

in the countryside. Voters in resource­rich

states  worry  about  the  future  of  mining.

Urbanites  want  to  cut  emissions.  Yet  they

will be in agreement about one thing when

they vote in a federal election on May 21st:

disillusionment  with  their  political  sys­

tem.  “Too  much  rubbish  goes  on,”  grum­

bles a voter in Wentworth, a wealthy con­

stituency  in  Sydney.  “It’s  just  a  whinge­

and  bitch­fest.  No  one  is  actually  getting

the job done,” concludes another in Hunt­

er, a coal­rich seat in New South Wales. 

Their  frustrations  are  not  as  loud  as

Britain’s or America’s (nor are their elector­

al  choices  as  self­harming),  but  that  does

not make their politics healthy. In 2019 on­

ly a quarter of Australians said they trusted

“people  in  government”,  down  from  43%

in 2007, according to polling by the Austra­

S YDNEY

Independent candidates are shaking up

this year’s federal elections